PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Democracy Corps–CLINTON 50, Trump 38
MINNESOTA–Mason Dixon–CLINTON 47, Trump 39
NORTH CAROLINA–NYT/Siena–CLINTON 46, Trump 39
FLORIDA–Bloomberg–TRUMP 45, Trump 43
FLORIDA–SurveyUSA–CLINTON 48, Trump 45
FLORIDA–Associated Industries–CLINTON 44, Trump 41
Funny how every bit of conventional wisdom about HRC — weak candidate, no enthusiasm, etc. — has turned out wrong https://t.co/GFrSuBM69Y
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) October 25, 2016
Washington Post: “There are times when words do not do complete justice to a moment. Tuesday night’s Newt Gingrich-Megyn Kelly showdown is one of those times.”
Wow. pic.twitter.com/fUhQnWvB93
— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) October 26, 2016
Nate Silver: “The nightmare scenario for the GOP is that high-information Republican voters, seeing Trump imploding and not necessarily having been happy with him as their nominee in the first place, feel free to cast a protest vote at the top of the ticket. Meanwhile, lower-information Republican voters don’t turn out at all, given that Trump’s rigging rhetoric could suppress their vote and that Republicans don’t have the field operation to pull them back in.”
New York Times: “Two outside groups aligned with Republicans, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Senate Leadership Fund, have begun running television commercials in Senate races implying that Mr. Trump’s defeat is likely and asking voters to send Republican lawmakers to Washington as a check on Mrs. Clinton.”
“And the Congressional Leadership Fund, a powerful ‘super PAC’ that supports Republicans in the House of Representatives, will begin running ads in the coming days that attack Democratic candidates as ‘rubber stamps’ for Mrs. Clinton, and urge voters in swing districts to support a Republican instead.”
Washington Post: “What few people talk about — but should — is that this could be a very short-lived majority for Senate Democrats, as the 2018 field is remarkably bad for them.”
“The numbers for that year are stunning: 25 Democratic or Democratic-affiliated independents are up for reelection, compared with just eight Republicans. That’s as lopsided an election cycle as you will ever see.”
“But a look inside the numbers makes the Democrats’ challenge in 2018 all the more daunting. Fully 20 percent of the 25 Democratic seats are in states that then-Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney carried in 2012.”
One election at a time.
Washington Post: “Many Republicans familiar with Nevada worry about this nightmare scenario: If Trump loses decisively along the Eastern seaboard—New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and/or Florida—the networks could declare that Clinton is the president-elect before polls even close in Nevada. Many core GOP voters typically cast their ballots while commuting home from work. What if a couple percent of them decide that the election is over and it’s not worth waiting in line? Because Republicans are so reliant on these voters, and Democrats will have so many votes locked in from early voting, it could lead to a down-ticket bloodbath. At the very least, it could tip a close Senate race to Cortez Masto.”
The Cook Political Report says Democrats will win 5-7 Senate seats: “History shows that races in the Toss Up column never split down the middle; one party tends to win the lion’s share of them. Since 1998, no party has won less than 67 percent of the seats in Toss Up. While the 2016 election has broken every political science rule and trend, we’d be surprised if this becomes one of them.”
“As such, we are increasing the range of expected Democratic pick ups to five to seven seats. This means that we feel that the prospect that Democrats will have at least 51 seats is greater than the odds of a tied Senate, or of Republicans somehow holding their majority.”
Stuart Rothenberg says big Democratic gains are to be expected in the House: “Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report and David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report continue to show Republicans near or over the 218 seats they need to retain House control when they each count safe or solid GOP seats and those likely to be won.”
“Two weeks can be a lifetime in politics, but it remains unlikely that Democrats will win back the House. There simply are too few takeover opportunities for them. On the other hand, the size of the Republican majority is sure to be cut, making for an obvious headache for House leaders next year. GOP losses of 12 to 20 seats would not be surprising.”
The New York Times on whether Clinton can win Texas: “Democrats in the state call it a long shot, but some say they believe she has a chance; Republicans say it will be close but are confident that Mr. Trump will triumph. Political consultants who have both Republican and Democratic clients, and people who study Texas politics, say regardless of Mr. Trump’s narrow lead, he will take the state.”
“From polling to early voting trends to TV ad spending to ground game, Donald Trump’s Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a ‘landslide’ loss in the nation’s biggest battleground state,” Politico reports.
“Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October — according to Politico’s Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4 point lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trump’s in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes.”
“The Michigan Republican Party isn’t throwing a party for activists and elected officials on election night this year, while Michigan Democrats are planning a big bash at the MGM Grand casino in Detroit,” the Detroit News reports.
“The two major political parties usually host competing events to serve as the base camp for the news media, political pundits and activists to watch election results roll in on projector screens inside a convention center and give their candidates a platform for victory and concession speeches.”
“But the state Republican Party is taking this year off, citing the cost and the fact there isn’t a statewide race at the top of ticket or special connection to GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump or his running mate, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence.”
“Hillary Clinton and her allies have an animating aim in the final 14 days of the 2016 contest – drive up the score so dramatically that claims by Donald Trump of Democratic vote-rigging will be rendered inconsequential thanks to the margin of victory,” Politico reports.
“And if their final bombardment of campaign activity drags down-ballot Democrats across the finish line and sweeps proponents of Trump’s alt-right ideology off the political table, all the better.”
Charlie Cook says Republicans should be very worried: “For several weeks many Republican candidates and operatives have been fretting that Donald Trump’s misbegotten candidacy could cause the bottom to fall out for GOP candidates in Senate, House, gubernatorial, state legislative, and other down-ballot races. While their concerns were legitimate, it seemed too soon for the GOP to panic. After all, the Donald Trump brand and the Republican Party brand were certainly not one and the same. Hillary Clinton’s negatives were so high that a landslide seemed unlikely. And in quite a few races the Democratic candidates for some of these offices were not exactly of top shelf.”
“So while panic should not be the GOP’s attitude right now, extreme worry seems appropriate. The bottom has not fallen out for candidates down the ballot, but many Republican candidates are seeing their numbers turn to purple or even blue. One veteran Republican pollster said privately on Monday morning that he felt ‘sick to his stomach.’ In some cases, candidates are weighed down by their association with Trump. In other cases, Trump is causing normally stalwart Republican voters to lose heart. They see the GOP presidential nominee going down in flames and don’t want to be part of a Hillary Clinton coronation, so they’re contemplating not voting at all. When people report a lack of enthusiasm about voting, that often results in their dropping out as “likely voters” in opinion polls, causing the opposition candidate’s support levels to balloon.”
Rick Klein wonders if Trump will have a closing message: “If you believe Donald Trump’s version of the race, or something in its vicinity, he’s down but not out. Lacking another debate and trailing Hillary Clinton in resources, he needs something dramatic to change directions – or at least get those on the sidelines suited up on his behalf. His overriding message in recent days has been about the ‘rigged election’ – a rallying cry for anger, though not necessarily voting.”
“He is, of course, attacking the polls he once touted at the top of all his big speeches. He has also, in recent days, threaten to sue his accusers, along with the usual jumps on headlines – Wikileaks revelations, Obamacare rates, etc. The freewheeling style has gotten him this far. But it’s hard to discern a strategy behind Trump’s campaign style now, with two precious weeks still to play with.”
The New York Times says Trump’s biggest fear is losing status: “The intense ambitions and undisciplined behaviors of Mr. Trump have confounded even those close to him, especially as his presidential campaign comes to a tumultuous end, and he confronts the possibility of the most stinging defeat of his life. But in the more than five hours of conversations — the last extensive biographical interviews Mr. Trump granted before running for president — a powerful driving force emerges: his deep-seated fear of public embarrassment.”
“The recordings reveal a man who is fixated on his own celebrity, anxious about losing his status and contemptuous of those who fall from grace. They capture the visceral pleasure he derives from fighting, his willful lack of interest in history, his reluctance to reflect on his life and his belief that most people do not deserve his respect.”
“In the interviews, Mr. Trump makes clear just how difficult it is for him to imagine — let alone accept — defeat.”