The October 27, 2016 Thread
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–ABC News/Washington Post–CLINTON 51, Trump 43
NATIONAL–PPP–CLINTON 46, Trump 40
NATIONAL–Fox News–CLINTON 49, Trump 44
NATIONAL–Reuters/Ipsos–CLINTON 43, Trump 37
NATIONAL–USA Today/Suffolk–CLINTON 49, Trump 39
NATIONAL–Associated Press/GfK–CLINTON 54, Trump 41
NEVADA–NBC/WSJ/Marist–CLINTON 43, TRUMP 43
NEVADA–Alliance/ESA–CLINTON 45, Trump 41
NEW HAMPSHIRE–NBC/WSJ/Marist–CLINTON 45, Trump 36
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Monmouth–CLINTON 46, Trump 42
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Alliance/ESA–CLINTON 45, Trump 41
TEXAS–Austin American-Statesman–TRUMP 45, Clinton 38
TEXAS–SurveyUSA–TRUMP 45, Clinton 42
CALIFORNIA–PPIC–CLINTON 54, Trump 28
MONTANA–Montana State Univ.–TRUMP 43, Clinton 27
FLORIDA–Alliance/ESA–CLINTON 46, Trump 41
FLORIDA–Univ. of North Florida–CLINTON 43, Trump 39
NORTH CAROLINA–Alliance/ESA–CLINTON 47, Trump 41
VERMONT–Braun Research–CLINTON 50, Trump 22
MICHIGAN–Mitchell Research & Communications–CLINTON 48, Trump 42
Businessweek on how Trump will dominate GOP politics after the election: “Almost every public and private metric suggests Trump is headed for a loss, possibly an epic one. His frustrated demeanor on the campaign trail suggests he knows it. Yet even as he nears the end of his presidential run, his team is sowing the seeds of a new enterprise with a direct marketing effort that they insist could still shock the world on Election Day.”
“Beginning last November, then ramping up in earnest when Trump became the Republican nominee, Kushner quietly built a sprawling digital fundraising database and social media campaign that’s become the locus of his father-in-law’s presidential bid. Trump’s top advisers won’t concede the possibility of defeat, but they’re candid about the value of what they’ve built even after the returns come in—and about Trump’s desire for influence regardless of outcome.”
Some Rs are already promising gridlock, dysfunction, investigations, and even impeachment if they keep Congress. https://t.co/L1fMlcGoIC
— Jon Favreau (@jonfavs) October 26, 2016
New York Times: “Big crowds still mob Donald Trump when he comes to town, with fans waiting in long lines to attend his rallies, where they eagerly jeer his Democratic rival and holler happily at his message.”
“But beneath the cheering, a new emotion is taking hold among some Trump supporters as they grapple with reports predicting that he will lose the election: a dark fear about what will happen if their candidate is denied the White House. Some worry that they will be forgotten, along with their concerns and frustrations. Others believe the nation may be headed for violent conflict.”
Bring it on. It will be great for this country to weed out our deplorables.
Trump's party of angry, white, abusive males https://t.co/LN4QrdloQZ – @JRubinBlogger
— Post Opinions (@PostOpinions) October 27, 2016
“The Republican Party’s grip on U.S. state legislatures could loosen in next month’s election as Democrats seek to link Republican candidates to the sinking fortunes of the party’s White House candidate, Donald Trump,” Reuters reports.
“The bipartisan National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL) estimates 18 legislative chambers in 12 states could switch party control, including in Arizona, Colorado, Kentucky, Minnesota, Nevada, Washington and Wisconsin.”
Bernie Sanders is a general who wants to lead an army he hasn’t seen fit to formally join. https://t.co/Ps71lSX1nf
— Jonathan Capehart (@CapehartJ) October 26, 2016
“In a vintage return to his confrontational style, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) indicated that Republicans could seek to block a Democratic president from filling the vacant Supreme Court seat indefinitely,” Politico reports.
Said Cruz: “There will be plenty of time for debate on that issue… There is certainly long historical precedent for a Supreme Court with fewer justices.”
Then goodbye filibuster.
3. There are lots of reasons to keep Bill Clinton off to the sidelines, which I explore here: https://t.co/qyYLHdLVfX
— Jeet Heer (@HeerJeet) October 26, 2016
New York Times: “If the most likely scenario holds — a Hillary Clinton victory, a narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and a diminished Republican House majority — Republicans will have to make crucial and onerous decisions they are now beginning to confront.”
“Do they try to find a way to cooperate with Democrats and get something done after years of stasis in Washington, perhaps as a way to move beyond the Trump phenomenon? Or do they dig in against Democrats and the new president as a bet on a Republican comeback in the 2018 midterm elections, adopting a noncooperative strategy to recapture the Senate majority and pad their numbers in the House?”
Really insightful article from .@HeerJeet Must read.
The Right Is Giving Up on Democracy https://t.co/ia6LmP1mLH
— James Bray (@jamsbray) October 26, 2016
Dylan Matthews at Vox with 21 maps and charts that will change how you think about the election. Some notable points:
* Americans are as happy with the economy as they were in 1995
* Americans’ support for foreign trade is higher than it’s been for more than 20 years
* More Democrats than Republicans have favorable opinions of foreign trade
* Nearly 60 percent of Americans oppose reducing immigration
The GOP civil war is coming, and Trump will continue to destroy the party https://t.co/EjN622yd4P
— Alan Abramowitz (@AlanIAbramowitz) October 26, 2016
Donald Trump “has stopped holding events for his high-dollar fundraising operation for the rest of the campaign, an unusual move that deals another serious blow to the GOP’s effort to finance its get-out-the-vote operation before Election Day,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump’s decision effectively turns off one of the main spigots to the Republican National Committee, which collected $40 million through Trump Victory as of Sept. 30. The party has devoted a large share of the funds to pay for its national voter mobilization program to benefit the entire Republican ticket.”
How Trumpism came to be: Our deep dive into its roots in the Republican Party. https://t.co/CtIEHcqZWS via @WSJ
— Gerald F Seib (@GeraldFSeib) October 26, 2016
Markos Moulitsas says losing the election is going to be just the start of a string of future failures for Donald:
In two weeks, Donald Trump will lose. He’ll lose big. He’ll lose in historic fashion. He’ll lose so big, in fact, that the only drama left is whether he can eke out a victory in Texas and Utah. That’s how big he’ll lose, going down in history among the nation’s yuuugest losers.
He’ll lose so big, that Republicans down-ballot will go down with him, including some never considered endangered. And he’ll motivate so many hard to turn-out voters, engaging so many of the formerly apathetic, that he will have endangered GOP chances well into the future.
That’ll be fun! But really, that’ll be just the beginning. Because Trump’s entire world is about to crash down on him, and the only question is how he handles things when even a tiny shred of this new reality enters the narcissistic bubble around his head.
Bring it on. It will be great for this country to weed out our deplorables
sigh.
Now that’s the hyperbolic, incendiary language we all know and ridicule. Maybe you should sit a couple plays out. Have a Gatorade. You’re hysterical.
My greatest fear on election day is violence. It truly frightens me and I want no part of it. We’re better than that. (And yes, I didn’t like Joe Biden’s comment either.)
If I may paraphrase Walter Sobchak… No, Pandora. These men are cowards.
There may be isolated incidents, but I don’t expect anything that’ll pose a real threat. All these scumbags came slithering out of the sewers a year ago. They usually don’t vote. And after Trump is defeated they’ll go back to their lairs and download Alex Jones and Hannity podcasts.
Do let the pandemonium and fronting of the final campaign days scare you. These people are not who you think they are.
I am in to letting them be forgotten.
They have Walmart and NASCAR and Blue Collar TV re-runs to keep them occupied. Add a steady diet of Golden Corral and living close to refineries and we wont have to worry about them for long.
I agree with Dorian, in that these scared little white guy racists are cowards. I do not agree with Dorian that I am hysterical. Hyperbolic, yes. Hysterical, no. Well, unless you mean hysterical in that I am hysterically funny. Then yes.
Fair enough. I rescind the hysterical claim. On the other score, no, you’re not funny.
funny lookin! (sorry)
Cowards they are, but they’re comfortable in groups. I live in the city and have no fears for my personal safety, but Mr. Pandora will be in Mississippi on election day… I’m not really worried about his safety (Hello? He’s a white guy and his gender and skin color will protect him), but I am concerned for POC, Muslims and women who live in these Trump areas. The rage of some Trump supporters will seek an outlet.
Like I said, I do think they’ll be scrapes here and there. Everybody has a camera in their pocket so prepare to watch some yelling and shoving at polling places. In some instances the cops will be called. But any real danger, nah, not likely.
Screw you guys, I’m goin home. [Cartman voice]
“Bernie Sanders is a general who wants to lead an army he hasn’t seen fit to formally join.”
He has joined the US Senate and no amount of clever twitter-snark can take that away from him. Besides, does Bernie really fit into the party of Tom Carper?
From wikipedia:
“A self-described democratic socialist, Sanders is pro-labor and emphasizes reversing economic inequality. Many scholars consider his views to be more in line with social democracy and New Deal-era American progressivism than democratic socialism.”
Who here doesn’t think that is where Democrats need to be led?
“Bernie Sanders is a general who wants to lead an army he hasn’t seen fit to formally join.”
Whereas Warren has been a real badass for the campaign. She has built up her political capital with party members as well as with the Clintonistas. I expect that she will judiciously use that political capital to batter both Republicans and Democrats. My guess is that she will be a formidable player. Sanders, not so much. However, the curmudgeon position is open.
Party partisans care more about THE PARTY and loyalty to the party than what can be done by swallowing pride and thinking bigger. These people exist in both parties.
Sanders is better than a good Democrat. He’s a good progressive and a great American. I don’t care what letter is next to your name. Tom Gordon is a Democrat… He’s a worm
There’s a bonfire on the beach in Dewey Friday night at 7:30!
I don’t know how the angry voters will really react post election. At best I expect simmering anger and hatred. Many of them have been willingly led to hate Clinton, just as they hated Obama.
Since they were led into hate, it remains to be seen whether any responsible GOP leaders will emerge to lead towards something different. My guess is that many of them will double down and wait for 2018. If the Democrats become too giddy with the outcome and forget to pay attention to the future, they will regret it. That includes leadership and rank and file.
It is tempting to tackle stretch goals, but ACA should have been a lesson. Goals are best accomplished in a series of executable chunks. Moon shots can only happen when the entire will of the nation is focused on a shared goal.
ACA is a lesson that’s still being learned.
I hope the retirees in Rehoboth don’t get out of hand while I’m at the polls
“Bernie Sanders is a general who wants to lead an army he hasn’t seen fit to formally join.”
That’s maybe because Vermont doesn’t do party registrations as other states do.
In Vermont, there is no need to formally join any party.
ACA was NOT a stretch goal by any measure.
Cubs manager Joe Maddon told a story about the 2008 World Series, when he was managing the Tampa Bay Rays. A rain delay caused a suspended game in Philadelphia, but the team had checked out of its hotel for the flight down to Tampa. They couldn’t find a hotel anywhere in Philly, but after a while:
“So we found a hotel in Wilmington, Delaware — the du Pont, I think it was. I remember at 1:00 in the morning, the entire organization is standing in this magnificent lobby there, and I thought that was a pretty cool moment having us all there at the same time under some really difficult circumstances. But even being down in the series, et cetera, it was still kind of a memory that I’ll always remember.
“The Philly fans, they knew we were there somehow. Five o’clock in the morning they’re driving around the hotel blowing the horn, trying to wake everybody up at 5:00 in the morning, 6:00 in the morning.”
http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/pattisonave/Joe-Maddon-Phillies-fans-caused-ruckus-at-Rays-hotel-during-2008-World-Series.html
Worth following the link in the philly.com story to the 2008 NYTimes story on it. What struck me was that, with every hotel in Philly booked, they had that many open rooms at the Hotel du Pont.
“ACA was NOT a stretch goal by any measure.”
Sure it was. The comprehensive nature of it – 50 state exchanges, subsidies, etc. There is no way that was executable across the entire nation.
Stretch goals are things cannot be achieved incrementally. Rather, they require extension to a limit to be actualized (“You cannot cross a chasm in two steps.”). It was unnecessary to do that. At least now we can go back and fix it incrementally.
This fucking Bill Clinton, Inc. shit is really passing me off. As much as I like Hillary Clinton, this fucking shit of paying Bill Clinton for “nothing” has got to stop.
Stretch goals are things cannot be achieved incrementally.
Thanks for the mansplaining.
The goal of making sure that every American had some safety net for healthcare *is* the stretch goal. We aren’t there yet and the ACA is an incremental step to that. Much like the first implementation of Social Security certainly did not cover nearly as many people under varying circumstances as it does now. Social Security was improved incrementally since its inception as will the ACA.
@D “I don’t know how the angry voters will really react post election.”
A visible uprising will bring an end to the 2nd amendment, as we know it.
That would probably be the quickest way to bring an end to private gun ownership in America.
great michelle obama speech today. good counter to the trump pessimism. (of course, some will say she’s overrating america.) but i have to admit “daughter of an orphan” sounded an eccentric note. dickensian?
“Thanks for the mansplaining.”
Throughout most of my life I have consistently followed the practice advocated by Marcus Tulius Cicero in his work De Officiis, Book 1, Moral Goodness
“For every systematic development of any subject ought to begin with a definition, so that everyone may understand what the discussion is about.”
I do that regardless of regardless of race, creed, gender, sexual preference, or ethnicity. To me it is an essential aspect of communicating ideas, thoughts, and opinions because I have found that most people have different definition of terms and phrases which detracts from an intelligent discussion of the issue.
Your paradigm for any engagement between genders may be responsible for the stereotypical characterization as “mansplaining,” but I assure you it was not. I did not treat you in any special manner.