The October 31, 2016 Thread
PRESIDENT
FLORIDA–NYT/Siena–TRUMP 46, Clinton 42
FLORIDA–NBC/WSJ/Marist–CLINTON 45, Trump 44
FLORIDA–Gravis–CLINTON 48, Trump 47
COLORADO–CBS News/YouGov–CLINTON 42, Trump 39
ARIZONA–NBC/WSJ/Marist–TRUMP 44, Clinton 42
NORTH CAROLINA–NBC/WSJ/Marist–CLINTON 47, Trump 41
NORTH CAROLINA–Gravis–CLINTON 49, Trump 47
NORTH CAROLINA–CBS News/YouGov–CLINTON 48, Trump 45
PENNSYLVANIA–CBS News/YouGov–CLINTON 48, Trump 40
LOUISIANA–Univ. of New Orleans–TRUMP 49, Trump 35
MAINE–Press Herald/UNH–CLINTON 48, Trump 37
MAINE CD2–Press Herald/UNH–CLINTON 43, Trump 40
MAINE CD1–Press Herald/UNH–CLINTON 54, Trump 34
UTAH-Salt Lake Tribune/Dan Joes–TRUMP 32, McMullin 30, Clinton 24
“Donald Trump initially offered the vice-presidential running-mate slot to New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie but then withdrew it, sources said,” the New York Post reports. After lobbying by his family, Trump agreed to name Gov. Mike Pence and broke the news to Christie, saying it would “tear my family apart if I gave you VP.”
If Trump really wants to claim that Clinton has a bad relationship with other countries why don't we go to some polling data. pic.twitter.com/9GkcL5Xjim
— Daniel Drezner (@dandrezner) October 31, 2016
Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) said that FBI Director James Comey “may have violated a federal law when he disclosed, less than two weeks before the presidential election, that his office was pursuing potential new evidence related to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s use of a private email server as secretary of state,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Reid: “I am writing to inform you that my office has determined that these actions may violate the Hatch Act. Through your partisan actions, you may have broken the law.”
If what EJ is saying is true, this is part of a plot to steal an election. That and nothing else. https://t.co/VH23W4Gcq4
— Elliott Lusztig (@ezlusztig) October 31, 2016
Politico: “In the hours after FBI Director James Comey threw a wrench into Hillary Clinton’s home-stretch plans, her campaign launched into an uncharacteristic frenzy of activity, quickly trying to turn the development into a base-energizing tool. But in her New York headquarters and her battleground state outposts, the news sent shivers down operatives’ spines, and immediately had them scrambling to gauge the effect on voters they need most…”
“Clinton’s strategists have projected a confident front, shrugging off any possible impact from Friday’s bombshell news and pointing to weeks of strong early voting and persistent polling leads, even as they blast Comey for re-injecting the email issue into the race with his cryptic letter to Congress. Their goal is now to convert Democrats’ anxiety over the FBI chief’s move into a fury and a rallying point for a base that has flirted with overconfidence in recent weeks.”
I think that has been accomplished on its own. Everyone I talked to since Friday is livid at Comey and the GOP. Not down in the dumps like bedwetting Democrats tend to do.
Eric Holder (!) signs on to a letter slamming Comey https://t.co/6LEvVsByQR
— Blake Hounshell (@blakehounshell) October 31, 2016
James Comey’s decision to send his letter to Capitol Hill seemed like a bad one from the start. But it did not seem as egregious as it does now because many assumed he was faced with a tough balancing act between informing Congress of significant new evidence and following longstanding DOJ/FBI guidelines about avoiding potential election interference. Even faced with that dilemma he could have provided more information than a terse letter certain to drive wild speculation. But everything we’ve learned over the last 48 hours-plus suggests Comey had no basis to believe there was significant new evidence, indeed no clear reason to think there was anything new at all. At best, Comey combined extremely poor judgment with a decision to place a near absolute priority on protecting himself from criticism over carrying out his professional and ethical obligations.
It is quite telling that even at this late stage of the election, when partisan tempers are naturally running at their fiercest, former career DOJ lawyers, former high level DOJ appointees and legal experts on both sides of the aisle are lining up to say this was not only an extremely poor decision but may even have violated the law. (Note here: President George W. Bush’s top ethics lawyer suggesting Comey may even have broken the law). […]
Harry Reid is now out with extreme criticism of Comey and accusations about FBI findings about Donald Trump and connections with Russia. I noted a few weeks ago that this is what is so damaging when people start violating norms, interfering in elections. It starts to seem rational for others to do it as well. I will suffice it to say that there seem to be at least two investigations on-going into issues related to Donald Trump. Comey has felt no analogous need to proceed with what we might call the extreme transparency he has chosen with the emails probe of Hillary Clinton. Again, he’s driven by fear of Republican criticism and leaks by agents trying to strongarm superiors.
All of this, the initial action and now these reactions are precisely what these rules are meant to avoid. It might be better to say that they are meant to avoid developments in good faith investigations being made public in close proximity to elections. What you have hear looks more like a worst case scenario: rogue agents trying to rehash already concluded investigations or launch still other ones in time to effect an election that is only days away. It is no secret that the the rank-and-file of the FBI leans Republican, much the same can be said about law enforcement generally. There’s no crime in that. But someone in Comey’s position is charged with pursuing justice and the administration of justice free from partisan motivation and in line with the policies and norms that govern such investigations. He’s failed in that completely, even after being warned of the consequences of his actions. His intent, the mix of self-protection or naivete or even bad motive if it exists, is basically irrelevant.
Early Turnout Tilts Toward Democrats in Swing States https://t.co/4eBabqEnzR
— Alan Abramowitz (@AlanIAbramowitz) October 31, 2016
A new Politico/Morning Consult poll finds Hillary Clinton has a slim three-point lead over Donald Trump one week before Election Day, 42% to 39%, with Gary Johnson at 7% and Jill Stein at 5%. It’s the same exact lead she had in this poll before the Comey Outrage. “In a separate poll conducted before Comey’s disclosure, Clinton was leading by three points in the four-way race… Put simply, there is not yet evidence that the revelations have drastically altered the contours of the election.”
The demographic shift of American politics toward nonwhites has produced a authoritarian white resistance. https://t.co/QP9CuSTAAa
— Jamelle Bouie (@jbouie) October 31, 2016
If the Trump campaign is under FBI investigation for the Russian attempts to interfere with the US presidential election, don’t you think that the American electorate should be entitled to know that before the cast their votes? I do.
This FBI stuff is not going to hurt Clinton. What is going to hurt Clinton is the fact that Millenials don’t see a whit of difference between Clinton and Trump, not do they see any difference between Republicans and Democrats. [I know, I know… hear me out]
It sounds ludicrous to us, but I have recently spoken to a number of Millenials. Many of whom hate the two party system so intensely that they see a vote for Trump as a chance to tear it all down, and start anew.
Now you and I know that is insane. Hoping for a Deus ex Machina is magical thinking. But unfortunately, these nutkins are under-polled, so this election night might truly be a horror show for people who value reason and sanity.
To me, the appearance that FBI officers are hardly politically neutral is most disturbing. I’m not talking about Comey, I’m talking about the alleged ‘near mutiny’ of field agents who want the Clintons indicted.
Ever since J. Edgar Hoover, this has been a horrifically politicized agency that has meddled in internal political affairs.
You want an investigation? THAT’s an investigation that should happen. It would help explain why the Trump-Russia connection is being slow-walked while this e-mail molehill is being made into a political mountain. Just like so many cops, it looks like FBI agents are above the law.
Jason, have you spoken to these millennials lately? I have a lot of friends who were of that mindset as recently as September…. who have come to understand the true threat of Trump (we’re not all entitled morons) and, while they (we) still wish there was a better choice, will be voting… and indeed GOTV-ing for Clinton.
What an ice cold take by Jason. All aggregate polling shows a Trump win if Millennials were to vanish and be unable to vote.
This election might lean back towards sanity if we barred those collecting social security from voting
Ironically, old angry white people value their resentments more than their social security income.
If there is one thing that we’ve all learned from this election, (Dem, Republican, Indy alike) it is DO NOT DO BUSINESS with Trump and if you do, get paid upfront.
the NYMag.com peice is really worth reading.
Wow, Imagine this…..http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2016/10/29/blooms-sweetheart-deal-del-keeps-givin/92667946/
AND, on top of us paying for this deceitful lie, we are going to also pay for the cleanup as well.
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2016/10/29/blooms-benzene-waste-concerned-epa/92900000/
Keep voting the Demo’s in………there will be more of the above to come!
@Anono… Put up a better overall alternative to racist hillbillies & crypto-fascists & the aggrieved white man. Perhaps we’ll consider somebody. Until then spare us you cherry picked confirmation bias bullshit. Anyone can do that. I know you think it’s clever. Trust me. It isn’t.
Also note the environmental oversight of the EPA in the 2nd story. Way to go government! That protection certainly isn’t brought to you by anyone on the Republican side.
Surprised that no one has commented on this column from Lavelle and Simpson posted on delawareonline today:
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/opinion/contributors/2016/10/31/states-gop-senate-candidates-offer-dynamic-vision/93054560/
Their first point about the Senate Republican’s grand plan to reduce poverty in Delaware and how that was blocked by the Senate Dems reminded me, yes, they did in fact attempt to pretend to care about poor people this past session. I actually googled it to remind myself what was on that agenda, but I was quickly reminded it read like a high school senior’s book report, all fluff and platitudes and almost no substantive policy recommendations. The most significant contribution for their agenda was a bill of Baumbach’s they jumped on to support but then they never appeared to make it a priority to get it through the committee process. I haven’t heard anything about this anti-poverty agenda from any 2016 Republican campaign in Delaware until now- I’m guessing because it appears only half of their 12 point plan has an actual bill that’s been filed for it; so for those keeping track that’s 6 of the 12 recommendations are missing a concrete proposal by the Republicans.
I skimmed this, And thought that they can try and say Dems don’t care enough about the poor and underprivileged as they do- but I see the converse as well. And if you can’t even put forward draft legislation for the majority of the recommendations in your plan, and you only bring up the concept of this agenda when it’s politically expedient, I call bullshit.
So much crap is packed in to that piece including a mention of Spadola’s “innovative community policing concept.” most people who actually want better relationships with police can see right through the social media inspired “hug a cop” campaign, that did nothing to improve relations with the university community and campus police, but instead brought attention and accolades to the one officer himself whose motivations for making this a right vs left issue now makes no sense. If hug a cop was so awesome Spadola, please share why you didn’t get more of the Newark police officers on board to do it with you? Or better yet, if it’s that great, why not partner with Wilmington PD and have certain cops try this in downtown Wilmington? I feel like an asinine fool even jokingly suggesting this as a solution, I don’t know how Simpson and Lavelle can without laughing in front of people.
“@Anono… Put up a better overall alternative to racist hillbillies & crypto-fascists & the aggrieved white man. ”
LOL, I always look at the Republican candidate in the hopes that this may someday happen but it doesn’t look promising. Maybe if we taught critical thinking and the dangers of tribalism..
The Bloom deal was brokered by the head of DEDO, Alan Levin…a Republican.