The November 2, 2016 Thread
NATIONAL–ABC Tracking–CLINTON 48, Trump 47
NATIONAL–RAND–CLINTON 44, Trump 35
FLORIDA–TargetSmart/William & Mary–CLINTON 48, Trump 40
OREGON–Fox12/DHM Research–CLINTON 41, Trump 34
VIRGINIA–Emerson–CLINTON 49, Trump 45
VIRGINIA–Washington Post–CLINTON 48, Trump 42
MISSOURI–Monmouth–TRUMP 52, Trump 38
TEXAS–CBS11/Dixie Strategies–TRUMP 52, Trump 39
MAINE–Emerson–CLINTON 46, Trump 42
MAINE CD1–Emerson–CLINTON 49, Trump 43
MAINE CD2–Emerson–CLINTON 44, Trump 42
ILLINOIS–Emerson–CLINTON 53, Trump 41
ILLINOIS–Loras–CLINTON 45, Trump 34
KENTUCKY–Western Kentucky Univ.–TRUMP 54, Trump 37
CALIFORNIA–KABC/SurveyUSA–CLINTON 56, Trump 37
CALIFORNIA–YouGov–CLINTON 54, Trump 30
MICHIGAN–Mitchell Research–CLINTON 50, Trump 43
A new Bloomberg poll finds Hillary Clinton holds a slim advantage with independents, 39% to 35%, a group Republican Mitt Romney won by five percentage points in 2012. I looked for the full horse race number but they are not releasing it yet, but I assume a lead among Indies is a lead nationally among all.
Mark Blumenthal says there is no hidden vote among the undecided: “Other measures yield no evidence of a hidden vote or an impending late ‘break’ of the undecided or uncertain voters toward either Clinton or Trump. Whether we focus on the totally undecided 2 percent or the 9 percent that also includes the uncertain, these potentially persuadable voters divide nearly evenly in terms of their partisan leanings and impressions of Clinton and Trump.”
New York Times: “Now, even as Hillary Clinton contends with inflamed Democratic anxiety over renewed scrutiny of her private email server, these once-red areas — a string of states that voted twice for George W. Bush — are providing an unexpected firewall for her campaign.”
“Democrats are already strongly confident of victory in three of them — Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — and believe that a fourth, North Carolina, is likely to break their way as well. Added to the party’s daunting advantage in the Electoral College, these states have impeded Mr. Trump’s path to amassing the 270 electoral votes needed to win, limiting his ability to exploit Mrs. Clinton’s late vulnerabilities and forcing him to scrounge for unlikely support in solidly Democratic places like Michigan and New Mexico.”
“Top members of the House Freedom Caucus will hold a rare, pre-election strategy session in Washington Wednesday to chart the group’s moves in November and beyond,” Politico reports.
“One of the most pressing questions preoccupying Washington is what the group will do about Paul Ryan. The Wisconsin Republican has said he intends to to seek another term as House speaker but has rankled members of the group of several dozen Republican lawmakers that drove John Boehner out of the speakership last year. The Freedom Caucus is also weighing proposals meant to empower its members, some at the expense of GOP leadership’s authority.”
“Among the small number of American newspapers that have embraced Donald Trump’s campaign, there is one, in particular, that stands out. It is called the Crusader — and it is the official newspaper of the Ku Klux Klan,” the Washington Post reports.
“Under the banner ‘Make America Great Again,’ the paper’s current issue devoted its entire front page to a lengthy defense of Trump’s message — an embrace some have labeled a de facto endorsement.”
The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There https://t.co/SHIN4p5D3a
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) November 2, 2016
The Lid: “Entering the final week of the 2016 election — and, oh, what a long and strange road it’s been — there’s an unusual dynamic at play. Unlike most of the post-convention news cycles, Hillary Clinton has been the lead headline every day since Friday’s news of the FBI’s reexamination of the Clinton email investigation. Think about it: Most of the dominant August-September-October headlines centered on a Trump controversy: Trump’s ‘birther’ walkback, his rough first debate performance, Alicia Machado, Trump’s taxes, the Access Hollywood tape, the allegations of sexual assault against Trump, and his refusal to say if he’ll accept the results of the election.”
“With the exception of a few news pops related to the Wikileaks disclosures, the news spotlight hasn’t been this focused on Clinton since her bad week at the beginning of September (the ‘basket of deplorables’ comment and her pneumonia collapse.)”
“We’ve seen throughout this election that whichever candidate is in the front of voters’ minds tends to suffer, which explains why this week has been so bumpy for Clinton. And it’s a good reminder why Clinton is turning her closing argument from a positive message to a reprise of the greatest hits of her attacks against Trump.”
Libertarian VP candidate Bill Weld to @maddow: "I'm here vouching for Mrs. Clinton…it's high time somebody did." https://t.co/dWUJInIf13
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 2, 2016
George P. Bush says he’s the only member of his powerful political family who will be voting straight-ticket Republican and says his grandfather and uncle, both former presidents, could “potentially” cast ballots for Hillary Clinton, the Dallas Morning News reports.
Texas ag commissioner Sid Miller just called Hillary Clinton the c word. #txlege pic.twitter.com/zkxsEo5FeI
— Edgar Walters (@ewaltersTX) November 1, 2016
If you think you’re hearing a lot today about the connection between Donald Trump and Russia, you’d be right. Kevin Drum says we have Harry Reid to thank for that.
Harry Reid may be a loose cannon, but never say he can’t spur people to action. In 2012 he blandly declared that a friend of his told him that Mitt Romney had paid no income tax for ten years. Reid’s friend may or may not have been imaginary, but a few weeks later Romney released his 2011 tax return along with topline information for the previous two decades.
Yesterday Reid followed up this triumph by writing a letter to FBI director James Comey accusing him of withholding “explosive” information about close ties between Donald Trump and the Russian government. Is this true? Who knows? But Reid sure has sparked a firestorm of activity.
Tying Comey, FBI leaks, impeachment and SCOTUS obstruction to Dems' dumb tendency to forget to vote in midterms. https://t.co/NlsynYNLYa
— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) November 1, 2016
Stu Rothenberg: “About half of the 11 races that have been watched at some point over the last year are still too-close-to-call. But Republicans remain on the defensive, and Democrats have many routes to gaining the four seats they need … The re-emergence of Hillary Clinton’s email issue puts the former secretary of state on the defensive and gives ammunition to GOP House and Senate candidate… The Republicans’ problem is that, unless they win the Nevada Senate race, they’ll need to win at least four of the five tightest contests.”
“Comey’s letter gives GOP strategists reason for hope, and a race-by-race assessment … suggests that anything from a Democratic gain of as few as three to as many as eight seats is possible. But given the much greater Republican vulnerability, Democrat gains of four to seven seats now looks most likely. And that would flip the Senate.”
“Wearable devices that track exercise and other vital signs reveal what many have suspected: The election is making us lose sleep,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The night of the first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Sept. 26, Fitbit users nationwide slept an average of 4.2 minutes less than they did the Monday before and the Monday after the debate. Users’ average sleep typically varies only about one to two minutes from one Monday to the next, so the change on the debate night is statistically significant,”
Philly transit strike could impact Dem turnout on Election Day.
Which is why it will be resolved by then. Bob Brady says they are close to a deal as of this morning.
Can anyone tell me where al mascitti is
I miss him !!
Here we go again…. “Dem (voters) dumb tendency to forget to vote in midterms” is really the “Democratic Party’s dumb tendency to neglect (ignore, dismiss, abuse, abandon) Dem voters prior to midterms.”
I’ve been watching this unfold in mid-term election after election for the past 16 years and I can conclusively state, without one ounce of reservation, that the problem is with the Democratic Party, not the Democratic-leaning voters.
This is a settled issue.
I’m hearing from my sources that this is all about an affair Comey and Clinton had and she jolted him for a younger boy toy and he wants revenge
Comey needs to step down. The only thing we know for sure is he has lost complete control of the FBI.
Comey’s masters thesis on Jerry Falwell should have been a clue…
Comey now trying to save Rubio:
Who is surprised that Republicans are using the FBI to further their political aims? The modern Republican Party has been nothing but disdainful of the traditions and political norms that are the grease on the gears of a properly functioning democracy.
And yet we have Democrats like John Carney who still seek out Republican approval because they are fucking wracked with Stockholm syndrome. It is nauseating.
Great Biden video.
It’s not Stockholm Syndrome. He’s simply not a Democrat in the first place.
To start with, John Carney did not receive the education that would make him a liberal. He attended a Catholic high school and Dartmouth, which is neck and neck with Princeton as the most conservative of the Ivies. His chief claim to fame as a student was that he played football, and the huddle is no place to find white liberals.
Then he went to work for Tom Carper, whom we all know fetishizes his own military service and has no liberal convictions I have been able to discern in his time in office. Seriously, name one liberal thing Tom Carper ever did.
The capper comes in the form of polling. I’m sure we all noted a few months back that Delaware has the highest percentage of self-described “moderates” in the nation. The polls, and therefore his handlers, have convinced themselves that this means Delawareans want someone “bipartisan” in office. So that’s what John Carney bills himself. So does Chris Coons, and for the same reason.
Seriously, what’s his calling to politics? What’s the core belief or the vision that makes him run? Your guess is as good as mine, because I’ve never heard him even try to articulate one. He’s a dutiful guy who was told to run for governor, so that’s what he’s done for the past 25 years. I don’t think even he has any idea why.
Is there a reason not to vote for Bonini besides he’s a Trump guy?
That all checks out. But I still don’t get something. Does his lack of core values obscure the ongoing Republican malfeasance RIGHT IN FRONT OF HIS FACE?
And while there may be no liberals on a football huddle, there is an opposition on the other side of the line of scrimmage. Why doesn’t he get that Republicans have been playing a zero sum game for 20 years and using him like a punked out prison bitch?
He’s for legalization of weed and will give my wife 5 years toward retirement. The dems have done little for the state, have a screwy budget, have shafted state employee and have state agencies in chaos
Because quarterbacks don’t play defense.
@mouse: Bonini can be for legalization all he wants; it won’t happen until the state police allow it. Bonini has little respect in Dover on either side of the aisle, and wouldn’t get anything at all done with a Democratic House and Senate.
anonymous, I’m afraid it really may be that simple.
Is the Green candidate worth a protest vote?
I just hate to vote for Carney and entrenched Hubris
On a lighter note, some internet wags are saying this is the peak Florida Man story of all time. Headline:
Florida man driving home from strip club falls out of truck and runs himself over
Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article110524437.html#storylink=cpy
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/crime/article110524437.html
There is a little sliver of room for that to be topped. If someone does all of that and also discharges a handgun – that’s peak Florida.
In all my years of government service, the one constant absolute was no employee shall ever violate the Hatch Act. This was not limited to actual violations, this included any activity that could give the perception that there was interference in an election. Feds have always taken that seriously and violations have always been dealt with harshly.
As Schedule C employee, Comey falls into the category of “further restricted” and may not “Use official authority or influence to interfere with or affect the result of an election.”
Regardless of whether he intended to or not, he created the public perception of influencing the election, which is exactly what the Hatch Act was intended to address.
Further, while the Act applies to all federal organizations, the Department of Justice must be held to a higher standard and the FBI to a higher standard still. Comey serves at the pleasure of the President and his term should be at an end with a new administration. While he get’s credit for past performance, this is an exceptionally serious issue and cannot be ameliorated by his previous good acts. This is a trust issue for one of the most powerful agencies in the nation.
I plan to leave the Governor line blank on my ballot. You can do that you know.
It is very obvious that none of you have ever played football
“on a football huddle” lmao
That was obviously a typo for in, but humor is where you find it.
@DoDem: Typo or Freudian slip? You be the judge.
As for playing anything other than with the kids in the neighborhood, I was a three-fer — small, short and slow. Which turned me into an avid spectator until the other fans eventually grossed me out.
Which, come to think of it, is why Trump rallies don’t look all that strange to me. The behavior would not be out of place outside any NFL stadium during the tailgating. It’s been some time now since UD and some other campuses have restricted tailgating, but with the pros, you get to see lots of testosterone-poisoned drunks.
“The Vet: Pride, Pretzels, Prison” remains one of my favorite t-shirts.
The way y’all talk about the socio-political make up of football teams, it is painfully clear that none of you have spent much time around football players. It wouldn’t shock me if you thought a huddle was a thing to be stood upon.
No, peak Florida is if that person discharges a handgun and gets off on a stand-your-ground defense.
nailed it.
Dave, Next year the Hatch Act will be one of those quaint old-timey things people reminisce about like Drive-In Movies or milk delivery.
Really? At what level do you think I have had no contact with football players? No contact with today’s high school players I’ll cop to, because my son is now in his 30s, but I had plenty of contact with football players from the ’80s until the ’00s. I’m still good friends with more than a couple of people who have spent more time in pro locker rooms than you ever will, and they set me straight when I have the wrong idea.
If you have something to say in opposition, say it. If you’re merely trying to show you’re a dick, consider your mission accomplished.