NATIONAL–ABC Tracking–CLINTON 48, Trump 47
NATIONAL–RAND–CLINTON 44, Trump 35
FLORIDA–TargetSmart/William & Mary–CLINTON 48, Trump 40
OREGON–Fox12/DHM Research–CLINTON 41, Trump 34
VIRGINIA–Emerson–CLINTON 49, Trump 45
VIRGINIA–Washington Post–CLINTON 48, Trump 42
MISSOURI–Monmouth–TRUMP 52, Trump 38
TEXAS–CBS11/Dixie Strategies–TRUMP 52, Trump 39
MAINE–Emerson–CLINTON 46, Trump 42
MAINE CD1–Emerson–CLINTON 49, Trump 43
MAINE CD2–Emerson–CLINTON 44, Trump 42
ILLINOIS–Emerson–CLINTON 53, Trump 41
ILLINOIS–Loras–CLINTON 45, Trump 34
KENTUCKY–Western Kentucky Univ.–TRUMP 54, Trump 37
CALIFORNIA–KABC/SurveyUSA–CLINTON 56, Trump 37
CALIFORNIA–YouGov–CLINTON 54, Trump 30
MICHIGAN–Mitchell Research–CLINTON 50, Trump 43
A new Bloomberg poll finds Hillary Clinton holds a slim advantage with independents, 39% to 35%, a group Republican Mitt Romney won by five percentage points in 2012. I looked for the full horse race number but they are not releasing it yet, but I assume a lead among Indies is a lead nationally among all.
Mark Blumenthal says there is no hidden vote among the undecided: “Other measures yield no evidence of a hidden vote or an impending late ‘break’ of the undecided or uncertain voters toward either Clinton or Trump. Whether we focus on the totally undecided 2 percent or the 9 percent that also includes the uncertain, these potentially persuadable voters divide nearly evenly in terms of their partisan leanings and impressions of Clinton and Trump.”
New York Times: “Now, even as Hillary Clinton contends with inflamed Democratic anxiety over renewed scrutiny of her private email server, these once-red areas — a string of states that voted twice for George W. Bush — are providing an unexpected firewall for her campaign.”
“Democrats are already strongly confident of victory in three of them — Colorado, Nevada and Virginia — and believe that a fourth, North Carolina, is likely to break their way as well. Added to the party’s daunting advantage in the Electoral College, these states have impeded Mr. Trump’s path to amassing the 270 electoral votes needed to win, limiting his ability to exploit Mrs. Clinton’s late vulnerabilities and forcing him to scrounge for unlikely support in solidly Democratic places like Michigan and New Mexico.”
“Top members of the House Freedom Caucus will hold a rare, pre-election strategy session in Washington Wednesday to chart the group’s moves in November and beyond,” Politico reports.
“One of the most pressing questions preoccupying Washington is what the group will do about Paul Ryan. The Wisconsin Republican has said he intends to to seek another term as House speaker but has rankled members of the group of several dozen Republican lawmakers that drove John Boehner out of the speakership last year. The Freedom Caucus is also weighing proposals meant to empower its members, some at the expense of GOP leadership’s authority.”
“Among the small number of American newspapers that have embraced Donald Trump’s campaign, there is one, in particular, that stands out. It is called the Crusader — and it is the official newspaper of the Ku Klux Klan,” the Washington Post reports.
“Under the banner ‘Make America Great Again,’ the paper’s current issue devoted its entire front page to a lengthy defense of Trump’s message — an embrace some have labeled a de facto endorsement.”
The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There https://t.co/SHIN4p5D3a
— Adam Parkhomenko (@AdamParkhomenko) November 2, 2016
The Lid: “Entering the final week of the 2016 election — and, oh, what a long and strange road it’s been — there’s an unusual dynamic at play. Unlike most of the post-convention news cycles, Hillary Clinton has been the lead headline every day since Friday’s news of the FBI’s reexamination of the Clinton email investigation. Think about it: Most of the dominant August-September-October headlines centered on a Trump controversy: Trump’s ‘birther’ walkback, his rough first debate performance, Alicia Machado, Trump’s taxes, the Access Hollywood tape, the allegations of sexual assault against Trump, and his refusal to say if he’ll accept the results of the election.”
“With the exception of a few news pops related to the Wikileaks disclosures, the news spotlight hasn’t been this focused on Clinton since her bad week at the beginning of September (the ‘basket of deplorables’ comment and her pneumonia collapse.)”
“We’ve seen throughout this election that whichever candidate is in the front of voters’ minds tends to suffer, which explains why this week has been so bumpy for Clinton. And it’s a good reminder why Clinton is turning her closing argument from a positive message to a reprise of the greatest hits of her attacks against Trump.”
Libertarian VP candidate Bill Weld to @maddow: "I'm here vouching for Mrs. Clinton…it's high time somebody did." https://t.co/dWUJInIf13
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) November 2, 2016
George P. Bush says he’s the only member of his powerful political family who will be voting straight-ticket Republican and says his grandfather and uncle, both former presidents, could “potentially” cast ballots for Hillary Clinton, the Dallas Morning News reports.
Texas ag commissioner Sid Miller just called Hillary Clinton the c word. #txlege pic.twitter.com/zkxsEo5FeI
— Edgar Walters (@ewaltersTX) November 1, 2016
If you think you’re hearing a lot today about the connection between Donald Trump and Russia, you’d be right. Kevin Drum says we have Harry Reid to thank for that.
Harry Reid may be a loose cannon, but never say he can’t spur people to action. In 2012 he blandly declared that a friend of his told him that Mitt Romney had paid no income tax for ten years. Reid’s friend may or may not have been imaginary, but a few weeks later Romney released his 2011 tax return along with topline information for the previous two decades.
Yesterday Reid followed up this triumph by writing a letter to FBI director James Comey accusing him of withholding “explosive” information about close ties between Donald Trump and the Russian government. Is this true? Who knows? But Reid sure has sparked a firestorm of activity.
Tying Comey, FBI leaks, impeachment and SCOTUS obstruction to Dems' dumb tendency to forget to vote in midterms. https://t.co/NlsynYNLYa
— Brian Beutler (@brianbeutler) November 1, 2016
Stu Rothenberg: “About half of the 11 races that have been watched at some point over the last year are still too-close-to-call. But Republicans remain on the defensive, and Democrats have many routes to gaining the four seats they need … The re-emergence of Hillary Clinton’s email issue puts the former secretary of state on the defensive and gives ammunition to GOP House and Senate candidate… The Republicans’ problem is that, unless they win the Nevada Senate race, they’ll need to win at least four of the five tightest contests.”
“Comey’s letter gives GOP strategists reason for hope, and a race-by-race assessment … suggests that anything from a Democratic gain of as few as three to as many as eight seats is possible. But given the much greater Republican vulnerability, Democrat gains of four to seven seats now looks most likely. And that would flip the Senate.”
“Wearable devices that track exercise and other vital signs reveal what many have suspected: The election is making us lose sleep,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The night of the first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, Sept. 26, Fitbit users nationwide slept an average of 4.2 minutes less than they did the Monday before and the Monday after the debate. Users’ average sleep typically varies only about one to two minutes from one Monday to the next, so the change on the debate night is statistically significant,”