Delaware Liberal

The November 4, 2016 Thread

Delaware Dem

The polling roller coaster continues. In the ABC Tracking Poll, which is performed each night and is a four night average, Trump’s best day, Sunday, just rolled off the average. His best day was +1. So that means Hillary is increasing her lead again, from +2 yesterday to +3 today. The same is true for the state polls below, much of which were conducted during last weekend’s Peak Comey, especially the three tied New Hampshire polls. State polls are lagging indicators, because it takes longer to conduct them.

NATIONAL–Reuters–CLINTON 45, Trump 37
NATIONAL–ABC Tracking–CLINTON 49, Trump 46
FLORIDA–Opinion Savvy–CLINTON 49, Trump 45
FLORIDA–Gravis–CLINTON 49, Trump 46
NEW HAMPSHIRE–UMass Lowell/7News–CLINTON 44, TRUMP 44
NEW HAMPSHIRE–WBUR/MassINC–TRUMP 40, Clinton 39
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Boston Globe/Suffolk–CLINTON 42, TRUMP 42
ARKANSAS–The Arkansas Poll–TRUMP 51, Clinton 31
CALIFORNIA–The Field Poll–CLINTON 53, Trump 33
TEXAS–NBC/WSJ/Marist–TRUMP 49, Clinton 40
TEXAS–Emerson–TRUMP 49, Clinton 35
UTAH–Heat Street/Rasmussen–TRUMP 43, Clinton 31, McMullin 21
UTAH–Emerson–TRUMP 40, McMullin 28, Clinton 20
UTAH–Monmouth–TRUMP 37, Clinton 31, McMullin 24
TEXAS–NBC/WSJ/Marist–TRUMP 49, Clinton 40
MICHIGAN–Fox2 Detroit/Mitchell–CLINTON 51, Trump 46
COLORADO–Magellan Strategies–CLINTON 44, Trump 38
CALIFORNIA–The Field Poll–CLINTON 53, Trump 33
ARIZONA–NBC/WSJ/Marist–TRUMP 45, Clinton 40
GEORGIA–NBC/WSJ/Marist–TRUMP 45, Clinton 44

Welcome back Georgia!

The New York Times says the Clinton campaign sees victory in three key states: “Mrs. Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook, told donors on a conference call Thursday that the campaign expected to win Florida and North Carolina in large part because of Hispanic turnout. In Nevada, a third diverse battleground state, Mr. Mook said he no longer saw a path for Mr. Trump to win there.”

Los Angeles Times: “Election stress disorder may not be well known, but it’s definitely real, and its impact should not be dismissed… Symptoms of this once-every-four-years disorder include heart palpitations, shortness of breath, sweaty palms, loss of appetite, trouble sleeping and a sinking or doomed feeling.”

“The cause? Intense concern about the outcome of the presidential election.”

New York Times: “The records demonstrate that large portions of those numbers represent cash coming into his businesses before covering costs like mortgage payments, payroll and maintenance. After expenses, some of his businesses make a small fraction of what he reported on his disclosure forms, or actually lose money. In fact, it is virtually impossible to determine from the forms just how much he is earning in any year.”

“Mr. Trump appears to have used a provision in federal ethics laws that allows business owners to list gross revenue, as opposed to net income after expenses, on their disclosure forms. But he does not seem to have completely acknowledged that choice. Rather, he has suggested that the figures on the form represent money in his pocket.”

Eric Trump told KHOW Denver that former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke deserves “a bullet.”

Said Trump: “Ross, it’s disgusting and by the way, if I said exactly what you said, I’d get killed for it but I think I’ll say it anyway. The guy does deserve a bullet. I mean, these aren’t good people. These are horrible people.”

He added: “In fact, I commend my father. My father’s the first Republican who’s gone out and said, ‘Listen, what’s happened to the African-American community is horrible and I’m going to take care of it.’”

Melania Trump gave a speech yesterday, and David A. Graham at The Atlantic explains why it was all “a bit surreal”:

“We need to teach our youth American values. Kindness, respect, compassion, charity, understanding, cooperation,” she said. If you’ve been paying any attention to the campaign, this is a bit surreal. Her husband’s campaign has been notably short on pretty much all of these. He has been unabashed about his cruel streak, sometimes boasting of it. He has blithely brushed off calls for respect. A series of Washington Post articles by David Fahrenthold has shown that he has nearly no record of recent charitable giving, and has used a personal foundation as a method for settling private legal disputes. He has demonized Muslims and immigrants.

Her handwringing about social media—and particularly anonymous Twitter trolls—is equally strange. It’s not just that Donald Trump has retweeted anti-Semitic accounts with anonymous handles like “@WhiteGenocideTM.” Melania Trump herself has given cover to such behavior. After the journalist Julia Ioffe profiled Melania Trump for GQ, she received a barrage of anti-Semitic comments and death threats. Offered a chance to condemn that, Melania Trump said that she didn’t “agree with what they’re doing,” but said that she doesn’t “control her fans,” placing the blame on Ioffe: “She provoked them.”

At POLITICO, Steven Shepard brings us the campaign expert consensus that Hillary Clinton has the superior ground game:

The presidential race may be tightening, but Democrats are convinced they have an Election Day ace-in-the-hole: Hillary Clinton’s ground game. They’re confident it will withstand Donald Trump’s late surge in key battleground states. […]

Democratic insiders are most confident in Colorado, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Wisconsin. They express more uncertainty in Florida and Iowa. […] Insiders in both parties agree that Hillary Clinton has the advantage in Colorado, where every ballot with be cast by mail for the first time in a presidential election.

“For the first time ever, Democrats are outpacing Republicans in ballot returns,” said a Colorado Democrat — who, like all insiders, completed the survey anonymously. “In the past, only on Election Day itself did more Democrats vote than Republicans. This year, there has been only one day when the Republicans outpaced the Democrats. Something special is happening here.”

“A racially charged phrase used by Governor Nathan Deal during a speech to educators has the governor saying he made a mistake in what he said, but not in what he meant,” Fox 5 Atlanta reports.

Said Deal: “The irony of some of the groups who are opposing doing something to help these minority children is beyond my logic. If you want to advance the state of colored people, start with their children.”

He later clarified: “I did not mean to insult anyone, but I was upset.”

“The U.S. government believes hackers from Russia or elsewhere may try to undermine the presidential election and is mounting an unprecedented effort to counter their cyber meddling,” NBC News reports.

“The effort is being coordinated by the White House and the Department of Homeland Security, but reaches across multiple government agencies, including the CIA, the National Security Agency and other elements of the Defense Department, current and former officials say.”

BuzzFeed News identified more than 100 pro-Trump websites being run from a single Macedonian town.

The young Macedonians who run these sites don’t care about Donald Trump. They are responding to straightforward economic incentives: As Facebook regularly reveals in earnings reports, a US Facebook user is worth about four times a user outside the US. The fraction-of-a-penny-per-click of U.S. display advertising — a declining market for American publishers — goes a long way in Veles. Several teens and young men who run these sites told BuzzFeed News that they learned the best way to generate traffic is to get their politics stories to spread on Facebook — and the best way to generate shares on Facebook is to publish sensationalist and often false content that caters to Trump supporters.

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