Regular readers know that the 9th is the blueish district that Peter Schwartzkopf handed to Republicans by clumsily trying to engineer his own Republican pick into the seat when incumbent Dem, Rebecca Walker, stepped aside. Given the choice between and authentic Republican in Kevin Hensley and Schwartzkopf’s ersatz Democrat (Jason Hortiz) the district picked Hensley by about 300 votes.
The power of incumbency being what it is, Hensley is clearly the favorite to hold this seat, but there are a couple things that can converge to create upset.
1. Straight ticket voting among Democrats. Mike Mathews writes on FB, “This is the first election in my voting history where I will not be splitting my ticket. So repulsive is the Republican at the top of the ticket, that I will not be giving any Republican my vote this year.” If this urge to punish Republicans for picking Trump is widespread Democrats in the 9th (who might normally be ticket-splitters) it could mean a long night for Hensley.
2. Huge Dem wave. The 9th is not full of families that have been here for generations. A great many families are from the world by way of New Jersey. My son’s soccer team was a regular United Nations with first generation immigrants from Jordan, Poland, Uganda, Cote D’Ivoire, Guatemala, and Columbia. If Dem turnout swamps a demoralized GOP GOTV, Johns could find enough votes among these highly motivated anti-Trump voters to make this close.
3. Bethany Hall-Long effect. The Lt Governor line is usually one that few people pay much attention to, but Hall-Long is popular in the district. She and Carney have been working hard here it fluff up what will probably be gaudy election night numbers. BHL could have coattails that will help Johns.
4. Johns is working hard. As a first timer, her campaign is a little rough around the edges, but what she lacks in campaign experience she is working to make up in effort, and voters notice that sort of thing.
