Delaware Liberal

The November 8, 2016 Thread

Delaware Dem

Nate Silver: “Seven of the 19 polls have Clinton leading by 4 points; another four have her ahead by 3 points… It’s worth raising an eyebrow, though, when the polls (other than the L.A. Times) show a range this tight at the end of an election, especially given that they’d diverged so much earlier in the campaign. That probably reflects some degree of herding — for instance, because pollsters stick surveys that seem to be outliers in a file drawer rather than publishing them. So the tight range of polls shouldn’t be taken to mean that everyone’s figured exactly how to poll this challenging election just in the nick of time.”

“Still, the polls clearly agree that Clinton is the favorite, and perhaps has a slight wind at her back for Election Day.”

Politico: “It would take nothing short of a miracle for Donald Trump to convert his combustible campaign into a solid win, after having spent 17 months ripping apart the Republican Party, shocking America with his anarchic language and inspiring legions of voters who feel left behind by the economic recovery.”

“Going into Election Day, Clinton had a small but sturdy lead. The final national polls released on Monday showed the former secretary of state with a 3- to 6-point advantage, giving Clinton a more comfortable lead than President Barack Obama enjoyed in 2012.”

“Early voting trends were also breaking Clinton’s way. At least 42 million Americans cast their ballots ahead of Tuesday — potentially one-third of the overall vote — and data showed Hispanics coming out strong for the Democratic nominee.”

“Republican strategists on Monday dumped all over their party’s voter turnout operation, calling it insufficient to the task and lagging behind Hillary Clinton’s machine,” the Washington Examiner reports.

“Some of the criticism was directed at Donald Trump. The Republican nominee de-valued field and data activities and in unusual fashion delegated voter turnout almost entirely to the Republican National Committee.”

“The RNC also came under fire for its performance, however, although some of the veteran GOP political operatives that spoke to the Washington Examiner said the party did as well as could be expected under the circumstances.”

Daily Kos has an excellent hour-by-hour guide to watch Election Night returns.

Politico also has a good timeline.

Wired: “Forget Nate Silver. There’s a new king of the presidential election data mountain. His name is Sam Wang, Ph.D.”

“Haven’t heard of him just yet? Don’t worry. You will. Because Wang has sailed True North all along, while Silver has been cautiously trying to tack his FiveThirtyEight data sailboat (weighted down with ESPN gold bars) through treacherous, Category-Five-level-hurricane headwinds in what has easily been the craziest presidential campaign in the modern political era.”

“When the smoke clears on Tuesday—and it will clear—what will emerge is Wang and his Princeton Election Consortium website and calculations (which have been used, in part, to drive some of the election poll conclusions at The New York Times’ Upshot blog and The Huffington Post’s election site). What will be vindicated is precisely the sort of math approach that Silver once rode to fame and fortune.”

Bret Stephens: “It’s normal that elections make fierce partisans of many of us. It’s normal that Mr. Trump would attract the usual right-wing buffoons to his banners. Normal, also, is that many voters may not be troubled by Mr. Trump’s cruder statements when they hear him addressing their deepest economic and social anxieties.”

“What isn’t normal is the ease with which so many conservative leaders, political and intellectual, have prostrated themselves before Mr. Trump simply because he won.”

“What all this shows is that most conservative intellectuals have proved incapable of self-examination or even simple observation. Donald Trump is a demagogue. Period. The fervor of his crowds recalls Nasser’s Egypt. His convictions are illiberal. His manners are disgusting. His temper is frightening. It ought to have been the job of thoughtful conservatives in this season to point this out, time and again. If they can’t do that, what good are they?”

Clinton campaign does the Mannequin Challenge. Includes Bill & Hillary.

David Brooks says that the GOP has fractured and will never be repaired, and he wants a new party: “Personally I’ve always disdained talk of a third party, mostly because the structural barriers against such parties are so high, no matter how scintillatingly attractive they seem in theory. But it’s becoming clear that the need for a third party outweighs even the very real barriers.”

“The Republican Party will probably remain the white working-class party, favoring closed trade, closed borders and American withdrawal abroad. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, is increasingly dominated by its left/Sanders wing, which offers its own populism of the left.”

“There has to be a party for those who are now homeless. There has to be a party as confidently opposed to populism as populists are in favor of it.”

New York Times: “It’s a risky game to try to tie swings in financial markets to political news. Markets often rise and fall for reasons that have nothing to do with the day’s biggest headlines. And if Monday’s rally were a one-time occurrence, it would be safer to attribute it to random chance than to the market’s collective judgment of the future under the two potential presidents.”

“But in this election cycle, there has been a clear pattern in which the odds shifted in the race and different financial indicators moved in a consistent direction. Good news for Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has coincided with higher stock prices, a rally in the Mexican peso and a decline in expected stock market volatility. Good news for Mr. Trump has coincided with the reverse swings.”

Nate Cohn at The New York Times writes about the Hispanic voter surge:

This year, Hispanic voters, perhaps motivated by Donald J. Trump’s policy proposals (including deportation) and harsh language aimed at undocumented Hispanic immigrants, really might decide this election.

Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago.

It’s too soon to say whether it will be decisive for her. The geographic distribution of Hispanic voters means that many of her gains will help her in noncompetitive states like Texas and California, not Michigan and Pennsylvania.

But the surge is real, and it’s big. It could be enough to overcome Mr. Trump’s strength among white-working class voters in the swing states of Florida and Nevada. If it does, it will almost certainly win her the election.

Omar L. Gallaga at The Boston Globe brings us the more positive takeaways of 2016:

7. Frank discussions about sexual harassment, assault, consent and the treatment of women online. A series of events, accusations and leaked tape involving Donald Trump and gender politics related to Clinton’s run led to serious talk online about how women are treated in America.

Writer Kelly Oxford created a movement by asking women to tweet their sexual assault stories with the hashtag NotOkay, prompting thousands of responses. Social media provided a vehicle for many of these stories to be heard, often for the first time. […]

9. Birdie Sanders. One of the great (but often annoying) things about the internet is its ability to hone in on some seemingly minute detail and turn it into A Thing. (SEE ALSO: debate-question-asker Ken Bone.) In the case of “Birdie Sanders,” it was a bird that flew onto a podium during a Bernie Sanders rally. Unexpected online stardom followed for the little fella.

Emma Green at The Atlantic:

She’s ready.

Hillary Clinton stood before a crowd of tens of thousands of people in Philadelphia on Monday night, sounding hoarse from her days of campaigning, wearing a bright red pantsuit as if to dare anyone to make fun it, the night before her historic election. She did not declare the race over, but the whole event felt breathtakingly close to a victory party. Clinton is ready to be off the campaign trail, and to be president of the United States.

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