1. Biggest Surprise: The turnout. While I haven’t gone back to check, there is no way that any previous Special Election turnout rivaled this one. There are 35,673 registered voters in SD 10. 12,580 cast ballots. That’s over 35% of eligible voters. This should cause real concern for R’s going forward. When mobilized, there are more D’s than R’s. The D’s were mobilized.
2. Overwhelming Margin: The final result wasn’t really close at all. 7314 to 5127. Almost a 2200 vote difference. Marino’s campaign peaked back in December. Hansen’s peaked on Saturday. This was a well-executed campaign. Kinda like Markell’s first campaign on a much smaller scale. Markell combined a strong grassroots network with ample funding, just like this one. Not coincidental, when you consider that Erik Raser-Schramm was a key leader in both campaigns.
3. What This Means in Dover: It means that D-sponsored legislation will be considered and brought to the floor in the Senate. The few progressive initiatives will at least see the light of day and will likely pass. It may mean that ‘Governor’ Carney will feel emboldened to push for Democratic initiatives. A serious minimum wage increase would be a good place to start. There is no good reason not to push for this. Starting the first day that the General Assembly goes back into session. It should pass the Senate, and we can now put pressure on the House obstructionists like Bryon Short and Andria Bennett to push for passage or face primary opponents. We need to let them know that we ain’t playin’, this is for real. Either you’re a D or you’re not.
4. What This Means Nationally: For the time-being, perception becomes reality. The perception is, that in a closely-contested race with clear statewide implications, the D swamped the R, buttressed by record turnout. That will have at least two positive impacts: (1) R’s will continue to worry about the electoral downside of Trump’s unpopularity. (2) D’s will be buoyed by both the result and the outpouring of grassroots support and will use this blueprint in upcoming races. My theory, of course, only remains relevant until the next Special Election somewhere.
5. What This Means For Politics Locally: This one is tricky. The entire Democratic Party came together for this one. Both the establishment and the largely progressive grassroots volunteers. To date, Stephanie Hansen has not shown herself to be supportive of progressive proposals like higher taxes on the wealthy or being a forceful advocate for public education. Will she feel like she owes anything to her volunteer supporters, or will she settle comfortably into the role of a Chamber DINO? We at DL will be watching closely, and so should the grassroots. Her term is up in two years. This was the hand that we were dealt for the Special. If we see little Dover interest in embracing the grassroots, it’ll be time to deal a few hands of our own. Speaking of which, one of the most positive impacts of this campaign was that progressive grassroots volunteers established themselves as key players. We’ll all watch to see if this leads to more inclusion in the Party, or whether the ‘leaders’ once again try to keep elective office away from those not in thrall to the Chamber’s agenda. I don’t think the latter is gonna work any more.