1. Who’s In, Out, Or Otherwise In AG’s Race.
D’s: Tim Mullaney: In
Sen. Bryan Townsend: Out
Rep. Sean Lynn: Likely In
Chris Johnson: Likely In
Charles Oberly: Considering, but will not be in race if Jennings runs
Kathleen Jennings: Considering, but will not be in race if Oberly runs
Ian McConnel: Was thought to be out, but he would be the ‘Beau would have wanted me to be AG’ candidate. He was the guy who made it seem that Beau was actually working when he wasn’t. In other words, formidable, with Biden loyalty, and likely to carry Joe’s new book to every campaign appearance.
Dwight Davis: Considering? Is he a registered D?
R’s: Tom Neuberger: In
David Skoranski: Probably In(?)
OK, who can either provide more insight into this race, mention other prospective candidates, or deep-six my brief analysis?
2. Melanie George Smith May Not Go Gentle Into That Good Night.
Word out of Dover is that she’s playing hardball, perhaps even leveraging dirt that she’s accumulated on others to either (a) garner a golden parachute or (b) run for reelection regardless of her perhaps legal, but untenable, residency issue. In a News-Journal piece on her father, a former legislator said “Lonnie knows how to take care of Lonnie”. Melanie appears to have learned from the master. Melanie? If you want to dish that dirt, you’ll find that I’m a great listener (hey, just doing my duty as a faux reporter). This power play adds context to Erik Raser-Schramm’s comments that legislators should also be neighbors. It also heightens the urgency for someone to step up and primary her.
3. Will D’s Learn Lesson From Virginia?
Said lesson being ‘you cannot win if you do not play’. Failing to field candidates in this climate is political malpractice. With some noted exceptions. This could be a wave election. So. Here is a list of incumbent R state legislators currently w/o announced challengers:
State Senate:
Ernie Lopez: Will Pete run interference to prevent a challenge to Lopez in this 50-50 Sussex district ? With Park City Kathy directing traffic away from wherever Ernie currently hangs his hat? I can’t stress this enough: Pete Schwartzkopf has no business as Speaker and as a D who stops D’s from running effective challenges.
Colin Bonini: The people in his Kent County district, like people statewide, know he’s a doofus. Often a no-show doofus. More registered D’s than R’s. Need I say more?
Gary Simpson: Rumor has him considering retirement. A credible candidate could nudge him in that direction. 50-50 registration in this Kent/Sussex district.
Bryant Richardson: Word is that some Rethugs don’t consider him thuggish enough. Could be a nasty primary. D’s should at least be in this race to possibly pick up the pieces.
State House Of Representatives:
Kevin Hensley: Geek could fill us in (I know he doesn’t live there anymore, but that hasn’t stopped Melanie Smith), but disgust with Trump could change the outcome in this swing-R district.
Jeff Spiegelman: Tough one, I know.
Steve Smyk: Ditto.
Mike Ramone: No excuse, none, for not challenging this Newark-area R. Prime pickup target. See below.
Joe Miro: He’s not gonna be there forever. Correction: He has been there forever. The registration is becoming more D, in fact, there are now more registered D’s than R’s in this district. In a wave election, and 2018 could be one, this is the kind of district that flips. No excuse for not challenging this seat.
OK, I’m not gonna list all the downstate R’s. I don’t consider it political malpractice to forego races where you literally have no chance. I think that Rich Collins is the most vulnerable, but it would have to be an Atkins-style D, meaning no D at all. Until proven otherwise, I consider anything west of Route 1 to be Jesusland, with more than a dollop of sexual depravity thrown into the political mix. There’s always sexual depravity amongst the most ‘righteous’ among us. Prime Trump territory. I wouldn’t waste my time. But I’m prepared to change my mind if the right candidate comes along.
4. No Filings. And no set filing fees outside of Kent County.
What’d I miss and whaddayathink?