Open Thread Jan. 5: Fire, Fury and a Bomb Cyclone
Yesterday’s “bomb cyclone” brought Slower Lower Delaware all the way to a standstill, but the high winds and near-foot of snow were nothing compared with what happened in Boston, where the sea reclaimed the streets in the worst flooding in a century. Global warming? Not entirely. Some of the blame goes to, believe it or not, the moon.
The shock waves from Michael Wolff’s “Fire and Fury” continue to spread out from their White House epicenter, but is anyone actually surprised by anything they’ve learned from the book? Almost certainly not — everything in there was, as the saying goes, an Open Secret. James Fallows notes that, in a post-Weinstein America, the “open secret” excuse is no longer being accepted as an excuse — the question nowadays quickly becomes, “Why didn’t you do something about it if you knew?” And that’s what is going to kill the Republican Party — they know what’s going on and are profiting by it instead of stopping it. This is ultimately why “kicking the can down the road” is a poor metaphor for Congress’ long-running inability to do its job — the can doesn’t explode after you kick it long enough.
KKKeebler Elfmaster Jeff Sessions didn’t just harsh the mellow of every marijuana user in the country when he decided to crack down on legal weed, he’s seriously fucking with the revenue streams of several states — Colorado for instance, where Republican Sen. Cory Gardner is threatening to scotch some DOJ nominees in response.
Want to end a Democrat’s career? Catch him creeping on women. Want to end a Republican’s? Catch him talking shit about Donald Trump. Steve Bannon learned this the hard way yesterday when his Mercer paymasters cut him for dead, aligning themselves instead with Trump. This brings up the frightening prospect that even people like the Mercers are afraid of Trump’s followers, which means there is, very literally, nobody in charge.
The retail apocalypse has claimed a local victim. The venerable Sears store at Prices Corner will close in April, with the auto center shutting down this month.
Somebody woke up John Carney long enough for him to express opposition to the Trump “administration” plan to open areas off the Delaware coast to oil drilling.
I think the one element of the book that will have the greatest impact is the extent to which Trump is apparently mentally-enfeebled. While some people were on to this, I don’t think the general public was. And I don’t think the genie can be put back in the bottle. What are they gonna do? Trot him out there for a news conference to demonstrate the scope of his mental capacity? Everyone now knows that he is unfit to be President. Or at least they’re swiftly becoming aware of it. That’s a sea change.
Trump’s best hope of avoiding prosecution might well be the Ronald Reagan defense. Remember? He couldn’t remember anything about Iran-Contra b/c his mind was gone.
I agree. Even if he colluded, he might not remember it by now. That won’t keep his progeny and Kushner out of prison, though.
Far too much experience with dementia in my family and at first I saw no signs in Trump, now I do, in particular cognitive issues (he sees it but does not recognize it). In addition there’s talk he’s moved into what I call endless repetition, repeating the same phrase or word repeatedly. Strongly suspect it resembles Reagans last year in office with Nancy fielding the questions and supplying the answers. Should note nothing was done about it then either. Finally a note to Bernie backers and people bandying about Joe Biden’s name: 70 is too damn old to be president let alone pushing 80.
Ageism. I couldn’t give a fuck about age. If your politics are right, they’re right.
Crime Bill Joe ain’t it.
It’s worth noting that the two presidents who showed the most obvious ill effects of aging are Reagan and Trump, neither of whom would have won an intelligence contest even before their brains turned to mush.
If you’re going to use personal characteristics to select a president, I would argue that intelligence is more important than age.
“James Fallows notes that, in a post-Weinstein America, the “open secret” excuse is no longer being accepted as an excuse — the question nowadays quickly becomes, “Why didn’t you do something about it if you knew?” ”
When it all turns to shit, I’m sure these Republicans in the know will have some brilliant rationalizations for why they didn’t do something. My money is on “But, but, but Benghazi”
I agree with what Rick Tyler, former Ted Cruz aide and strategist, said: The GOP will abandon Trump — impeach him, even — if and when they get wiped out in the midterms.
Some people understand instinctively that putting their hand in an open flame will hurt. Others have to get burned first. And a few, like Gordon Liddy, are so batshit crazy they think it’s a smart thing to do.
Is it really a certainty that the Dems will crush the Repubs in 2018? I can see them capturing the Senate, but the House? The House is where impeachment proceedings must begin.
Good point. The House is tough due to gerrymandering. Also, the Republicans have the built in advantage of running against hapless, message-impaired Democrats.
The pros say the opposite is more likely. The Democrats need to flip only 24 seats, and they have a good chance at 20 of them just in California, New York and New Jersey. Lots of things can change — a war would top the list — but if we continue along this path I would guess the GOP loses 30-40 seats. Nobody thought the 2010 massacre — achieved before the current crop of gerrymanders — would get to 63 seats, either.
I’ve been struck by the wave of Democratic victories in low-level local races in red states like Oklahoma, the kind of race people would normally ignore. Those results indicate to me that enough voters simply want these people out. Sure, they’e low-information voters, but the Barnum principle holds that only some of the people will be fooled all of the time. The key number in polling is the sky-high strong disapproval rate — even Rasmussen puts it at 44%. That number dwarfs the approval rate for the Democratic Party. So, at this point, we’re looking at a damn near unscrewable pooch.
Baseball great Casey Stengel was once asked his secret to successful managing. His answer: “Keep the five guys who hate you away from the four guys who haven’t made up their minds.” I would say that’s also the secret to success in our polarized politics.
Trump and the GOP both have failed badly at this, embracing policies that only the Trumpkins can love. Kos wrote a post today wondering whether they’ve lost all political instincts for self-preservation. Between the pot crackdown and opening the coasts to drilling, Trump and Sessions have even managed to alarm Republicans like Florida’s Rick Scott and Colorado’s Cory Gardner. The drilling, in particular, could add Florida to the list of states with Republican House members forced into a defensive crouch.
The Senate, on the other hand, is stacked against the Democrats this cycle. Unless the wave is bigger than I think it will be, regaining the Senate will have to wait.
The pros could be wrong. The top tier candidate to challenge Sherrod Brown today announced he would not run due to his wife’s health problem.
And don’t forget, there could well be a second Senate seat open in Arizona. I wouldn’t be shocked if the R’s hold one seat and lose the other.
The map is not favorable to D’s, but, so far, the R’s don’t have a clear favorite to take a seat currently held by a D.
Jason’s right about the GOP go to defense when they’re caught with their pants around their ankles. But but but Benghazi….or what about those 33,000 emails and that damned uranium? The dems can screw this up without even trying. Biden or Bernie? Jesus, just shoot me now.
@Bc “But but but Benghazi….or what about those 33,000 emails and that damned uranium?”
How do fake scandals have anything do with Democrats screwing up???
Benghazi — not a real scandal
2006 emails — not a real scandal
uranium company sale — not a real scandal
If you want to complain about Dems, find a real scandal, and then get back to us.
Recent history demonstrates that Democratic scandals don’t have to be real to have an impact. Especially when they have the full weight of the GOP, Fox News, The Kremlin, Wikileaks and chicken livered Dems promoting them.
Add this to the list:
Trump Justice Department Now Probing Clinton Foundation
When you just have to get a pack of cigarettes:
@puck: Addiction’s a bitch.
@El Som: That clown in Ohio might have been the best Republican in his own mind, but he’s about 12 years old. And something tells me that the days of more-conservative-than-thou Republicanism are soon to be dead.
They’re just not good breeders. They can’t create angry white men fast enough.
“There’s a kind of politics of distraction with this being real. Here’s what I mean by that. The Trump administration just managed to give their mates a trillion and a half dollars out of the public purse, because we are correctly focused on cultural, social and identity issues which are real and affect the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. And the price of us focusing our anger there is they, in the middle of the night, stole one and half trillion dollars. That’s what’s going on. So there’s loads of stuff wrong, but the more we focus on this stuff over here, and fight amongst ourselves, which is what the liberal elites are doing, the more they walk off with more and more and more and undermine more of our capacity to intervene on the economy, undermine more of the capacity of the state to produce any public goods whatsoever. That’s their game.”
–Mark Blyth
http://radioopensource.org/mark-blyths-state-union/
That is spot on. So is Blyth’s point that the dislocation is part geographical, with the coasts gaining net benefits from globalization while the interior has withered, but even more generational, with capital concentrated in the Boomer generation.