Econ 101 – Trade Wars are Good and Easy to Win
1) Proposed tariffs, randomly and after clueing in some friends to dump certain stocks.
2) Partners will bristle and point out some US industries they might want to protect.
3) Double down and throw more proposed tariffs out.
4) Celebrate having won your first trade war.
All of this should be done with an absolute minimum of thought or refection.
It’s true that Trump-style trade wars fought with tariffs will be disastrous. Trump voters do not understand and are not prepared for the sacrifices they will be asked to bear.
Most likely, we will elect a thin Dem majority in the House or Senate, and the Trumpkins will then be able to blame Democrat obstructionists for the coming recession. It never ends.
On the other hand, the American steel and other industries (and the workers who depend on them) do need support. But that support should be won at the negotiating table.
Just to demonstrate how “easy to win” trade wars are, Ronald Reagan imposed a quota on the number of Japanese cars that could come into the U.S. every year was imposed in 1981, when the U.S. economy was in recession, unemployment was rising towards 10% and inflation was about 10%.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/07/27/news/economy/donald-trump-ronald-reagan-trade-japan/index.html
To paraphrase Peter Navaro, Trump’s economic advisor du jour, ” Fiddle dee dee , war, war, war, all this talk about war will ruin the party this summer”.
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