Famous nerd, Nate Silver, had some explaining to do in the wake of Trump’s win. This is what Silver basically said in his own defense.
“I never said Clinton was going to win. I said that she probably win based on polling. To be more precise, I said she’d win 53 times if the election was held 100 times. That meant Trump would probably win 47 times. This election was one of those 47 times. Also – Clinton ran a shitty campaign and took too many toss-up states like Michigan for granted.”
Well he didn’t say that last part but I can’t help interjecting the truth about that shitty Clinton campaign whenever I have the opportunity. Moving on…
Like Trump, Kerri Harris has some simple math to contend with.
She needs 40,000 Democratic Party members to vote for her in the primary on September 6th. That means she needs 40,000 primary voters who are pissed off at Donald Trump and are sick of Tom Carper’s go-along-to-get-along approach to this national crisis.
Are there 40,000 Democratic primary voters who fit the bill? Yes – there certainly are. Recent studies show what we already know. There is no middle ground in American politics. Carper’s political homeland had disappeared under his feet. There is no center, no moderate position that makes sense when it comes to Trump, and Trump is issue #1 through 30 this September.
Now, I’m making a big assumption. I’m assuming this primary election is much bigger than your typical mid-term Dem primary. Is that a safe assumption to work into my Nate Silver probabilistic model? I look at the anti-Trump energy around Stephanie Hansen’s special election win and think “maybe.” I look at the Virginia state house swing and think “perhaps” I look at pretty much ANY time Dems have entered the polling booth since Trump’s election and think that Tom Carper is not what the Democratic voters are looking for.
I’m not saying that Harris is going to win. Incumbency is a huge advantage, and a lot of things have to go right. But if this primary election was held ten times, Harris would win 4 of them, and that’s 4 more than 0.
