November Election Matchups Set – Part 2 The RDs
STATE REP DIS 4: GERALD BRADY (D) UNOPPOSED
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 5: KENDRA JOHNSON (D) UNOPPOSED
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 6: DEBRA HEFFERNAN* (D) JEFFERY OLMSTEAD (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 7: RAYMOND SEIGFRIED (D) ERIC BRAUNSTEIN (R)
D Hold…but they’re both basically the same guy.
STATE REP DIS 8: QUINTON JOHNSON* (D) DANIEL ZITOFSKY (R)
D Hold/Tossup
STATE REP DIS 9: MONIQUE JOHNS (D) KEVIN HENSLEY* (R)
Hensley is safe unless the blue wave is a blue tsunami. R Hold
STATE REP DIS 10: SEAN MATTHEWS* (D) ERIN WIENNER (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 11: PAUL THORNBURG (D) JEFFREY SPIEGELMAN* (R)
The Blue Wave swamps Spiegs D Pickup
STATE REP DIS 12: KRISTA GRIFFITH (D) DEBORAH HUDSON* (R)
R Hold/Tossup
STATE REP DIS 13: JOHN “LARRY” MITCHELL” (D) UNOPPOSED
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 14: PETE SCHWARTZKOPF* (D) JAMES DEMARTINO (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 15: VALERIE LONGHURST (D) Unapposed
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 16: FRANKLIN COOKE (D) JOHN AMENT ALBERT (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 17: MELISSA MINOR-BROWN (D) UNOPPOSED
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 19: KIM WILLIAMS* (D) JAMES STARTZMAN (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 20: JOHN BUCCHIONI (D) STEPHEN SMYK* (R)
Toss-up
STATE REP DIS 21: STEPHANIE BARRY (D) RAMONE MICHAEL* (R)
D Pickup
STATE REP DIS 22: GUILLERMINA GONZALEZ (D) MICHAEL F SMITH (R)
D Pickup
STATE REP DIS 23: BAUMBACH PAUL (D) UNOPPOSED
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 24: ED OSIENSKI (D) William DILKS (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 25: KOWALKO JR JOHN* (D) RASH BRYAN K (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 26: VIOLA JOHN* (D) CRUICE JUSTIN (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 27: EARL JAQUES* (D) UNOPPOSED
D HOLD
STATE REP DIS 28: WILLIAM CARSON* (D) CHARLOTTE MIDDLETON (R)
D HOLD
STATE REP DIS 29: WILLIAM BUSH (D) ROBIN HAYES ROBIN (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 30: CHARLES GROCE (D) “WILLIAM” SHANNON MORRIS (R)
Tossup
STATE REP DIS 31: SEAN LYNN* (D) DAVID ANDERSON(R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 32: ANDRIA BENNETT* (D) CHERYL PRECOURT (R)
D Hold
STATE REP DIS 33: JAMES WEBB (D) CHARLES POSTLES (R)
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 34: ADEWUNMI KUFORIJI (D) LYNDON YEARICK (R)
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 35: JESSE R VANDERWENDE (R) Unopposed
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 36: DONALD ALLAN JR (D) BRYAN SHUPE(R)
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 37: RUTH BRIGGS KING (R). Unapposed
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 38: MEGHAN KELLY (D) RONALD GRAY (R)
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 39: DANIEL SHORT (R) Unopposed
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 40: TIMOTHY DUKES (R)
R Hold
STATE REP DIS 41: BRADLEY CONNOR (D) RICHARD COLLINS (R)
R Hold
Not much movement. There are simply a lot of RD’s where Party ID is destiny. The fact that Republicans voted for Scott Walker show that they aren’t checking out resumes.
I trust my proofreader (Mitch Crane) to help me out where I’ve erred.
Bucchioni and Smyk a toss-up? Oh lordy lordy let it be so!! And call this a gut feeling more than anything, but I think Dave Baker has a shot at Lopez. Some of Ernesto’s luster has worn off in the last year or two.
Does 20 include Milton?
Yes
I would like to think that Baker has a good chance, but since I support him and will be voting for him, I am chalking up my optimism to wishful thinking.
Don’t give up on Krista Griffith in the 12th. If Ramone is beatable, so is Debbie Capano. Large overlap in her district with 4th Senate, where Sturgeon is giving Lavelle a strong run. If you’ll take Sturgeon over Lavelle, you’ll also take Griffith over Hudson.
Well,whaddya know? This week’s Lavelle newsletter starts with “emergency preparedness.” He’s getting the message.
Good point. Also, if Dems sit at home in droves this election, what the fuck is the point?
If RD20 is a toss up then so is RD36.
No errors, sir. We all proof read. You got me once for saying “tenant” instead of “tenet”
20th is much closer in registration than is the 36th. The R candidate in the 36th also represents himself as a moderate and lacks a voting record to attack, while Rep Smyk has a conservative voting record. Don Allan is running very aggressively, which makes the race not impossible in 36.
RD 20 registration is 8,444 dems to 8,311 reps, 5910 I’s. RD36 is an open seat with 5682 D’s, 5611 R’s, and 3984 I’s. No way 20 is a tossup and 36 is a lock for R’s.
Both RD 20 and RD 36 are longshots for the D’s at best.
Trump beat Clinton in RD 20, 8189-6615. And he beat Clinton in RD 36, 5767-3494.
Forget the registration numbers. The vote totals are a far better predictor than registration figures, especially in Kent and Sussex. A bunch of them may still have a D registration, but they rarely vote D.
Probably both long shots, but not impossible. Primary day turnout favored D’s in both districts. Allen and Bucchioni both running good campaigns. Not sure on Bucchioni fundraising, but I’ve heard Allen is doing well with $.
I don’t want to discourage you or the candidates. Good candidates can transcend disadvantages. As we all know, Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate.
Keep on keepin’ on.
Actually, we find that 80% plus Dems voted for Hillary. The loss was mostly attributable to independents breaking to Trump by large percentages. The hope is that the weak Republicans and Republican-leaning independents will stay home with no great loyalty to R candidates. The primary turnout indicates those R’s not strongly supportive of Trump stayed home. Trump lovers voted, which is a reason Arlett may have won so convincingly
“The loss was mostly attributable to independents breaking to Trump”
When have so-called “independents” ever broken to the left instead of the right?
Independents broke mostly to the left in the mid-terms of the George W administration
Sure, Mitch. The fact that one out of 5 D’s abandoned Hillary to vote for Trump tells you everything you need to know about both Hillary and the Fool’s Gold that some people see in registration numbers.
80% is the lowest number-this is western Sussex. It was over 90% in eastern Sussex.
Party affiliation doesn’t matter to most voters because they don’t care enough about politics to vote in primaries anyway. A lot of those Sussex “Democrats” registered that way back when Dixiecrats ruled the South, which includes SuxCo, and they haven’t cared enough to bother to change it.
Why are districts 1,2,3, 18 left off of this list?
Looks like 18 BENTZ was a mistake. As for the others…
If they don’t exist here:
https://elections.delaware.gov/reports/genl_fcddt.shtml
Griffith is going to knock Hudson out. Inexplicably Hudson was handing out mirrors that said “women’s equality”. I don’t get it.
But what I do get is that Krista got people out yesterday. And with increased Dem energy concentrated on RD21, RD22, RD12 and SD4, the blue(pink) wave is going to wash out the last vestiges of the Greenville Republicans, including Hudson.
i like it
Not sure I’m as optimistic as The Geekster. Registration numbers still favor the R’s, and Hudson is a woman. When you also factor in that some of the D’s only became D’s to vote for Jack Markell and Griffith’s task is still challenging.
She wins if, and only if, enough R women abandon Hudson, IMHO. Hey, it could happen.
Welp, it’s getting near time for me to stop doing these hit-and-runs, and start writing about the competitive races come fall. Just need a couple more days to recover from what happened on Thursday…
One more factor to add to LG’s analysis: With Arlett and Walker at the top of the GOP ticket, Greenville Republicans have two pretty good excuses for staying home, and that’s not going to help their down-ballot candidates.
Hillary Clinton won the popularity contest. So did Al Gore in 2000.
The voters elected the right candidates.
The problem is that we only have a non-binding popularity contest. We don’t have a democratic election for President.
Truth.
Your comments regarding RD7 are both ignorant and wrong. It may be worth talking to the candidate before opining . Ray Seigfried is the polar opposite of Eric Braunstein and I’d encourage you to talk with him before passing judgement.
We will let you make the case for Ray Seigfried. Tell us how he’s different from Braunstein and why progressives should embrace his candidacy.
All right, I will.
First and foremost, he’s a Democrat. The republican party on a national level has shown itself to be not only on the wrong side of the issues but immoral and craven. On the state level they are all that as well as bat shit crazy and , from my perspective, anyone who identifies with them is prima facie unfit to serve.
Ray holds universal views on health care, supports LGBTQ issues, is pro union, supports sensible gun legislation, supports a livable wage and quality education opportunities for all residents.
Does he check all the “progressive” boxes? I don’t know; I’m not sure I know what they all are. But he is a proud liberal democrat who has the intelligence to be an important legislator and the work ethic to be a strong candidate.
I realize that I’m an outsider in this community. I’ve always enjoyed reading the views of people who are more knowledgeable and better connected than I am and I value your opinion. I would argue that in today’s world, any Democrat is better than a Republican and would encourage you to not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.
With that, I’ll bow out of the discussion. Thanks, Go Democrats!
Thanks for the input.
Let’s take ’em in order:
“First and foremost, he’s a Democrat.” That doesn’t make one progressive, simply more progressive than a Republican.
“Ray holds universal views on health care” I think you left something out, because it’s a non sequitur otherwise. Is he for single payer/Medicare for All (not that it really matters at the state level)? If so, that’s the correct nomenclature.
“supports LGBTQ issues” Yawn. Who doesn’t?
“is pro union” Nothing progressive about that in Delaware, where the unions back the corporatists.
“supports sensible gun legislation” Supporting “sensible” legislation is why we have so little of it. If you start in the middle, you end up on the right.
“supports…quality education opportunities for all residents” Which means charter schools, which means more dismantling the public education system and siphoning its money to grifters instead of educators. Not Progressive.
Thanks for the input, but I’m not convinced.
While I’m gonna vote for Ray, and while I like him personally, he HAS been a big Charter Schools proponent, and he’s been an executive at Christiana Care.
While I was hoping for someone more progressive after Bryon Short, who was the Chamber’s boy, I at least think that Ray will do a better job on constituent services than Bryon did in his last two terms when he had lost interest.
30 will be a R hold for sure, and 29 will be a D hold. Bill Bush is a popular school board member in CR. 36 is at least a tossup
Any new neighborhoods around Felton and Harrington? Also, isn’t 30 is an open seat? Sure Outten had a strong grip, but Groce is making a second run? I don’t know. Tossup
There is a new neighborhood in Felton, it has a high percentage of airforce families. 30 is an open seat, Outten was popular, and Morris is his hand picked successor. This is Groce’s second run, but he is not making as much of a presence as Morris is.
Yes. 29 seems like a D hold
Yea, 36 is somewhere between a toss up and lean R. I’ve been on the ground there. The R’s don’t love their candidate, our guy is a great candidate. I’ve personally seen him talk Trump voters into yard signs, just by bonding with them over being a working class guy.
RD 22 as a Dem pick-up? I doubt it. Don’t let the primary numbers that show more Ds voting fool you. Look back at previous primary numbers in the district; the GOP primaries are inside baseball, but the voting base comes out, mostly because Lavelle, Miro, and Ramone have always had outstanding GOTV operations based on the neighborhood associations that the Dems continue to ignore.
Gonzalez just plain out-hustled Taschner, but I don’t believe that’s going to transfer into the General. Not that many people know who she is, or anything about her background. Her stand on DSEA will alienate the relatively small number of progressives in the district.
Mike Smith appears invisible to most of our local pundits because you don’t see him in traditional venues. That’s primarily because he understands the district. He’s been sitting in neighborhood association meetings, participating on committees, establishing himself as Miro’s legit successor for the past four to six years. People know him, they see him at local events in non-election years. His views on schools, while not mine, are very much in sync with the majority of voters in the district. Gonzalez can talk about the water quality issue in Hockessin, but I’ve actually seen Mike at those meetings for several years, not her.
This is a district that has to be won on a long-term ground game, mostly because the voters are quite willing to split their ticket and vote for the local Republican while voting straight Democrat everywhere but the General Assembly.
Since Mike lacks the incumbency advantage Miro brought to the table, he could lose to Gonzalez, but I believe she’s a longer shot than most of you appear to.
My take on this November is that it is more like the post Nixon midterm than any election since Nixon. So Gonzalez gets a lot more money and support than she typically would. Will some of these R sneak through? Of course.
But I see a number of threads being twined together to make this election a complete outlier.
The idea that Gonzalez isn’t well-known/popular there in that particular enclave is shocking. Gobsmacked. Almost unbelievable.
I’m mean she hasn’t been to “those meetings”. So… makes sense.
In other words, you still don’t know WTF you’re talking about.
I find it consistently amazing that people who don’t actually live here seem to know the district far better than those of us who do.
Of course I don’t. I didn’t attend those meetings.
Still no one could possibly comprehend people who literally live a 10 minutes drive…
…since we could never share your values or understand your interests…
…with all it’s esoteric machinations and traditions ..
I think you should build a wall.
(Not for nothing, doc, but you suck at the internet. Poor effort.)
The attitude of the elders toward precocity in … singing or dancing, is in striking contrast to their attitude towards every other form of precocity. On the dance floor the dreaded accusation “You are presuming above your age” is never heard. Little boys who would be rebuked or whipped for such behavior on any other occasion are allowed to preen themselves, to swagger and bluster and take the limelight without a word of reproach. The relatives crow with delight over a precocity for which they would hide their heads in shame were it displayed in any other sphere … Often a dancer does not pay enough attention to her fellow dancers to avoid continually colliding with them. It is a genuine orgy of aggressive individualistic behavior.[10]
– Coming of Age in RD22 by Margaret Mead
I’d rather suck at the internet than believe that proximity without effort equates to understanding.
I like how you think we don’t understand the mysterious political ways of suburban neighborhood associations. That part is actually funny. I make it funny though, because it’s stupid and I dunk on it.
I understand your little insulated enclave just fine. It’s actually quite clear to me. I said it at the bringing.
The interesting part is how ghoulish and classist it is. The only thing we haven’t sorted out is whether to try to convince you how grotesque your politics are or just wait for you to die.
I’m thinking I’ll try both. The latter being better for the internet.
Maybe talk more about constituent services and signs and if there are any secret rituals.
Enlighten us, master.
He’s describing the district, not himself. I live there, and he’s got it right as far as it goes.
Delaware’s blue wave might be smaller than the national average, but I agree with Jason — lots of people who normally don’t vote will do so this year. I think those low-information voters will break for the D and the woman.
That’s not based on data, just a belief that while Delaware might have a milder case than other places, blue fever will still help decide close races.
Hey moron: what don’t you get about the difference between describing the realities of where I live and endorsing them?
Jeez you are a pseudo-elitist faux/intellectual snot.
The reality is that Gonzalez hasn’t raised any money (she’s loaned her campaign more than she’s raised) and has less than half the funds of her opponent. The Dems in this district are so poorly organized that they just rejected their own RD Chair by a 2-1 margin.
Gonzalez, supposedly running as a Democrat, has issued anti- labor statements that drew the negative attention of DSEA who then noticed she was also bashing teachers a failures.
She tells us she will work in water pollution in Hockessin. Been called by her campaign three times. Asked all three times what her plan was, or even what was the nature of the problem. Crickets.
No history of doing any community service in the district.
But yeah I get it. Your snide but effervescent intelligence allows you to write this all off as me being a reactionary who needs to die so you can elect the clueless. And that’s how your cute little generation does the internet?
I guess it’s better than your previous crowd winning tactic of going to meetings so you could scream “racist” at the Mayor and feel all antifa accomplished.
If you had any history of accomplishing jackshut on the internet or otherwise you’d actually be worth listening to.
FWIW, Renee is not the chair of her RD. The Dems in the district are not in disarray. The GOTV in the district is going to be abundant.
Is it the case that the R leadership was supporting Beard? That was my impression, which would lead me to the “Republicans in disarray” narrative.
In the 21st, Ramone has been resting on his laurels. He hasn’t had to campaign for years. We will be testing his vaunted GOTV efforts with a candidate that speaks to the average voter in the district, rather than the top 10% of the district. Plus, TONS of volunteers.
I do think that the neighborhood associations, etc. are important, but that’s because I’ve been involved in them myself… Me and about 10 other people.
GG will do fine in the neighborhoods that you are talking about.
tl:dr
Al… I knew what he was describing. I said from the beginning.
I would never question soneone with so many personal political successes as Steve. I could never measure up. He had a legacy. He’s dynamic! He knows people.
Update. I did just read Steve’s note. Against my better judgement.
I found common ground. My intelligence is effervescent.
Not for nothing…
I get you’re just describing the circumstance of your little shire. Lighten up a bit…
I’d love to hear the ‘pseudo elitist’ thing explained. Less than a week ago I confirmed, as I have done numerous times in the past, that I consider myself a class traitor. Could I be both? Or were you just pressed for time to delete the effervescent description? Be honest.
Nah, I actually meant to write “pseudo-intellectual.” Truth.
Cool. You should write more about me personally. It’s far better content.
Did I insult you personally, by the way? If I did I missed it. You just don’t like my tone. I really don’t give a fuck.
**Not delete, but counterbalance rather. Neutralize. You see.
The 9th RD should be a winnable RD but they like to nominate the D’s that cant win