“Tossup, or D Pickup?”
That’s the main question to answer when looking at the November matchups. Some candidates are good and some are weak, but this election day, unlike any other, will come down to voter engagement. Right now all early signs point to the fact that “R Pickup” isn’t a high probability outcome in any race.
Primary day turnout is instructive. 83,000 Democratic voters were moved to vote in the primary. Meanwhile, Republican turnout went from nearly 70,000 voters in the 2016 primary to just under 38,000 on Thursday.
Importantly, the Harris campaign and other primary candidates focused on reaching new voters, young people, and people of color. Keeping those new voters and adding to their ranks may not be difficult given Trump’s poll ratings in Delaware. (Approve:36 Disapprove: 58 No Opinion:6.)
Those numbers, and the bloody flag being waved by President Obama, allow EVERY Democrat in every race to make Trump an issue in this election. That will push Republicans to either run toward or away from the President. A Kevin Hensley (for example) running toward Trump provides ammunition for his challenger and increases Dem turnout. A “nice polite Republican” like Hensley running away from the Cheeto provides the GOP nuts an excuse to stay home.
