I was tempted to call this the ‘only’ important race of 2018, but that’s probably an overstatement.
However, the contest between incumbent Greg Lavelle and Laura Sturgeon has loads of implications beyond the boundaries of the 4th Senatorial District. It is not only a referendum on the Delaware Republican Party and one of its leading propagandists, but a Sturgeon win could have major implications for the revitalization of what has been a hidebound Senate Democratic Caucus. Here’s why this race is so important:
1. Greg Lavelle is a partisan Republican in thrall to some of the most right-wing elements of the Party. In other words, he’s not Cathy Cloutier. Lavelle scored a 100% rating from the Delaware Family Policy Council. You know, the ‘rights of the unborn child’ people. Cloutier, by contrast, scored a 0% rating from them. In a post-Roe/Wade era, Lavelle has consistently demonstrated where his allegiances will lie. He represents an ongoing threat to the health and rights of women. As Senate Minority Leader, Lavelle has parroted R talking points whenever a microphone materializes. When one doesn’t materialize, he creates one, as in this creamy froth over Occupy Delaware. He supported protecting the Catholic Diocese against victims of pedophile priests, which is par for the course for someone who consistently sides with the overlords. Just this last session, Lavelle cast a key vote against permitting a debate over an assault weapons ban. While I could cite Lavelle’s record chapter and verse (and will, if requested), my point is that he is well to the right of the district he represents.
2. Too many cops, not enough teachers. Especially public school teachers. Other than Sean Matthews, who has been absolutely indispensable on education issues, the General Assembly has lacked the public education perspective for too long. Had there been more teachers in the General Assembly, I doubt that the hegemony of charter schools over education policy would have been as dominant as it is. Laura Sturgeon is a public school teacher, and, well, here is what she has to say about traditional public schools:
Traditional Public Schools
My compassion for each and every one of my students and their families compels me to be a strong voice in support of robust public school funding that includes an array of services to address more than just the students’ academic needs. When public schools are well-funded we can do more than educate children: we can feed them, provide them with physical and psychological wellness services, direct them to programs that can help them purchase eye-glasses, counsel them on their career and higher education options, and provide a safe, quiet place to study that is equipped with the computers and software they need to do their homework and conduct research. Many of our students do not get all this at home. When we provide all these services at school, we increase the chances these students will leave us and become productive citizens.
IMHO, Delaware simply must reemphasize support and funding for traditional public schools. With Laura Sturgeon in the State Senate, the likelihood of doing so increases measurably.
3. A more progressive Senate, and a more progressive Senate Democratic Caucus. This is really important, and I don’t think a whole lot of people, even progressives, have realized the potential impact of a Sturgeon win. First, you add by subtracting an intransigent partisan in Lavelle, Second, Sturgeon’s platform provides real hope for reform. For example, she supports the assault weapons ban that Lavelle helped bury in the Senate. One more vote was all that was needed.
Here’s where I get excited. We already know that Tizzy Lockman and Darius Brown will be members of the Caucus, replacing long-time members Margaret Rose Henry and Bob Marshall. We know that Trey Paradee will likely replace Brian Bushweller, which is a nominal upgrade, at least on issues like minimum wage. I cannot overstate how much that caucus needs new energy. Now, add to the mix Laura Sturgeon, who will have defeated a powerful incumbent, add in Bryan Townsend, Dave Sokola (on everything but charter schools), and you have the makings of a strong progressive bloc in Delaware. Hey, maybe even Stephanie Hansen will tag along.
Then consider that the following senior citizens are up in 2020: Harris McDowell, Dave McBride, and Bruce Ennis. It is likely that not all will run for reelection, and I think it’s likely that McBride, in particular, is vulnerable to a D challenge in a primary. The district has such a D tilt that the winner of the primary will be the new senator. In order to survive, McBride and McDowell will have to tack to the left (it’s easier for McDowell), and even that may not be enough. My point is that there is likely to be a vibrant Senate D Caucus in 2019 if Sturgeon wins, and an even more vibrant progressive caucus in 2021.
4. Ongoing D Control Of The State Senate. This only matters, IMHO, if Point 3 above is fully realized. However, from a purely partisan standpoint, a Sturgeon win will almost certainly lead to a 12-9 D edge. With Cathy Cloutier possibly retiring from what is now a solidly-D senate district (Sean Matthews, are you paying attention?), and with Anthony Delcollo likely eyeing higher office sometime soon, the D edge in the Senate could well be cemented for years to come. Even if Bruce Ennis’ district were to flip in 2020, which I believe is unlikely.
5. Down Ballot. Let’s look a bit more closely at SD 4. As I’ve mentioned previously, it’s only been in the past year or so that the number of registered D’s have surpassed the number of registered R’s. Current registration is 12,739 D; 12,029 R; and 9,431 I. There are a total of 24 election districts in SD 4. Three of those districts are in Gerald Brady’s RD 4. He doesn’t have an opponent, so they don’t matter too much. However, 11 of the ED’s are in RD 12, where Krista Griffith is challenging Deborah Hudson. While I remain skeptical of Griffith’s chances, having a strong candidate like Sturgeon just above her on the ballot can’t hurt.
Perhaps more importantly, and perhaps more decisively, Sturgeon will be listed on the ballot right above two very competitive House races, each with a D woman running against an R man (I firmly believe that women will vote in proportionately higher numbers this year, which is why I’m beating this point to death). First, there are 3 ED’s from the 21st RD. This is the district where Stephanie Barry is challenging Mike Ramone. The three ED’s from the 21st have a total of 1600 D’s; 1112 R’s; and 1079 I.
Then, check out the 22nd RD, where Guillermina Gonzalez faces Michael Smith to fill the seat being vacated by the retiring Joe Miro. 7 ED’s of the 22nd are in SD 4. The registration numbers: 4306 D; 3603 R; 3177 I.
I should also reverse my point and argue that these competitive races create Up Ballot synergy as well.
In other words, the Sturgeon-Lavelle race will likely influence, and will likely be influenced by, these three competitive House races. In a year when women who are sick of Trump will be the most motivated to vote.
While on the surface the Sturgeon-Lavelle race is just another hotly contested battle, I believe I’ve demonstrated that it’s much more than that.
Feel free to prioritize your time and money accordingly.