My skepticism notwithstanding, people in the field on both sides of the aisle tell me that Krista Griffith has a legitimate shot at taking down Deborah Hudson in RD 12. Why have I been skeptical? The numbers, mostly. 7168 D; 7313 R; and 5336 I. The only NCC Rep. District with an R plurality. Hey, waitaminnit, those numbers aren’t nearly as bad as I thought they were. Time for some research…yep, what once was about a 1000 R registration advantage in January of 2016 is now down to less than a 200 R advantage. That’s significant.
The main reason that people cite in claiming that this is an Upset Special is because one candidate is campaigning like a demon while the other…is hardly campaigning at all. Deborah Hudson has held this seat since 1994. A long time. I can’t recall anything remotely resembling a contested race here. She has been largely left alone. That’s great…until you’re faced with a real challenge. Your campaign machinery is rusty and, oftentimes, so is the candidate. Especially when the candidate is almost as old as I am.
Krista Griffith campaigned for this seat since the beginning of the year. First, in a primary with Rachel Blumenfeld, and now in the general. Griffith won the primary in surprisingly comfortable (to me) fashion. And she hasn’t quit. For those of you doubting my meme of a hardworking candidate vs. someone sitting on her laurels, feel free to contrast their Facebook pages:
One is a daily account of door-to-door activity. The other is more or less a collection of PSA’s and endorsements. Don’t think I saw a single door-knocking session on Hudson’s site. It’s not difficult to see who is putting in the hard work. And, perhaps once again, my initial opposition to a primary here was incorrect. Griffith appears to have successfully banked the D vote with little in the way of residual hard feelings, an accomplishment in and of itself. Her primary opponent, Rachel Blumenfeld, was more than gracious after the primary. She committed to working for Griffith and the other D candidates in her area. She, too, has a political future if she so desires.
Griffith still needs some R’s and I’s. And I’s tend to skew more R than D. And, IMHO, she needs D’s to turn out proportionately higher than R’s. The good news is that I’m told that she has a very sophisticated GOTV operation. Campaigns matter, and Griffith’s campaign may just be so superior to Hudson’s that she squeezes out an upset.
Definitely worth an investment of time and money.