I’m mostly out of the prediction business. Especially predictions based on polls. And yet, the polling numbers for women, (below) must tell us something about how some of Delaware’s marquee races will shake out. Let’s take a look:
I’d love to be seeing more from COLLEEN DAVIS, but in Ken Simpler she gets the honor of running against Delaware’s version of Brett Kavanaugh. And yet, based on the power of statewide incumbency, still a toss-up.
KATHLEEN MCGUINESS will roll over James Spadola. Other than disallowing a Republican to notch a win, not much to be happy about here.
The power of incumbency is great, but SD 4’s Greg Lavelle seems panicked. “Every single vote matters” is going to loom large in this one. I like LAURA STURGEON in an election night squeaker.
I haven’t heard anything about LOUISA PHILLIPS race in SD16. We all know how unsuited Colin Bonini is for elective office. Do enough SD 16 voters know? Still a Toss-up.
What a fucking dick Ramone turned out to be. I mean, being a Republican there was always the probability that he was a huge dick, but he has certainly dispelled any doubt. STEPHANIE BARRY D Pickup
Learning that GUILLERMINA GONZALEZ is mobbed up with the charter mafia, I’m not as thrilled with her campaign against Smith as I might have been. But I’m not a typical voter. I still have this as a D Pickup.
2018 voting gender gap is becoming an abyss
A Politico/Morning Consult poll showed the biggest gender gap when it comes to voter motivation: 57 percent of women are “very motivated” to vote, while only 32 percent of men are “very motivated.” Even combining the “very motivated” and “somewhat motivated” numbers, women voters still beat men: A total of 81 percent of women are motivated compared with 71 percent of men.
Enthusiastic women voters? Check. A record number of women candidates, the vast majority of them Democrats? Check. A higher percentage of women donating money in record amounts to women and Democratic candidates? Check again. And the most important check mark of all: More women than menturn out to vote.
