TPM’s Judis talks about things to look for in a Dem nominee in 2020. I’ll add what to look for in the VP selection below.
The first thing to say is that with US presidential elections, which because of the primary system put a premium on skill as a campaigner, you really can’t tell until you get to the primaries themselves and see the candidates in action.
I remember going around in the summer of 2015 in New Hampshire. At the time, Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker was supposed to be the inside choice for president, but when I saw him at a New Hampshire town hall, he seemed to have the public presence of Peewee Herman, and several months later he was out of the race. So I’d list three positives and one negative to look for:
1) Does the candidate project high energy/vivacity/large presence/charisma? It was no accident in 2015 that Trump, who, sorry to say, has brilliant political instincts, went after Jeb Bush as “low energy.” Our last four presidents have all had this kind of high energy charisma in abundance, and it helped them get the nomination in the first place. (George H.W. Bush, who didn’t, was pushed into the presidency partly by the evil genius of Lee Atwater and the ineptitude of his opponent.)
2) Does the candidate reach the audience by recognizing what it really cares about? Bernie Sanders, for instance, was derided by the Hillary Clinton people for proposing unrealistic programs, but he hit on issues and themes – universal health insurance, student debt and college tuition, campaign finance – that his audiences really cared about. Ditto Trump. Not Hillary Clinton, not Jeb Bush, not John Kerry in 2004 or John McCain in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012.
3) Can the candidate boast of significant or even heroic accomplishments? Yes, Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump (making money), Bob Dole, Dwight Eisenhower, Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, John McCain. Not Barack Obama (except for the very fact of a part-African American from humble origins being the candidate.)
4) [Negative] Will the candidate have to answer for scandals or controversial decisions or judgments? Definitely Hillary Clinton (Iraq in 2008 and emails in 2016) and Bill Clinton (who was given up for dead in the winter of 1992), and Trump (“Access Hollywood”). Not Reagan, Obama or George W. Bush, except for some manufactured or minor stuff.
The VP selection should be the person who comes in second. I wrote a post about this. A couple actually. If I find them I’ll link to them. Suffice to say that my logic is unassailable. None of this “we need Virginia” inside baseball bullshit.