A Possible John Carney Primary Raises Questions
It is well known that John Carney is a weak, feckless, visionless, half-hearted Governor. He has no base of support inside of the Democratic Party. His only real ally in state government, Ken Simpler, was recently defeated…soundly. Carney is beatable in a primary. And yet, a number of things work against the idea that Carney could face a legitimate primary challenge.
John Carney’s very blandness could be a defense that short-circuits a primary. To turf out an incumbent Democrat, being disliked by a bunch of political junkies isn’t enough. Carney doesn’t have a long Carperesque outrageous track record of horrendous votes that can fire up less engaged primary voters. Looking at a long-shot primary, most casual voters would say “why bother?”
But even if voters were fired up to oust Carney, a legit primary a challenger would need to have an existing statewide profile. There are maybe a handful of people who would not have to build a statewide campaign from a standing start. Matt Denn comes to mind, but he would never do it.
Beyond Denn, the only person I can think of is Kerri Harris. She is keeping her campaign peeps close, but can she get her 29k back to the polls? Would her 29k turn out in view of the fact that Carney doesn’t induce the type of revulsion that Carper did? And even if she did get her 29k to the polls, could Carney activate Carper’s 53k primary voters?
Of course Carney could easily avoid a primary by not being so weak, feckless, visionless, and half-hearted this term with a strong Democratic majority and a undeniable mandate from voters to govern as a Democrat. But who thinks that is going to happen? Nobody.
Where did you get those numbers? Kerri garnered only 29,407 votes in the Primary and Carper 53,635. If the 2020 Primary has a similar turnout, she would need those 29,407 and another 12,000+.
Fixed. I picked up the carper/arlett #’s in error.
thanks.
Carney has nowhere near the popularity numbers of Carper.
It’s also not just a bunch of political junkies. Talk to just about ANY legislator and/or anyone who deals with the Governor, and they’ll tell you the same thing. There’s no there there. Carney’s only ongoing ally is the Chamber, and that’s nowhere near enough.
And there are PLENTY of good names out there. I’ll write a piece about them someday soon.
My biggest fear? Carney doesn’t run again, and we end up with Bethany Hall Long. Hey, when you think about it, she’s better than Carney, which is a decidedly low bar.
Very likely the Democratic primary for president is going to drive huge turn-out again. This will also help. Carney is not nearly as popular as Carper. Carper is actually very affable when he turns up at the American Legion lodge or when you see him at the Y.
Carney is a squid.
Or we could just say while Carney fans are few and far between there’s no obvious challenger as of yet. As noted Carney is so wishy washy that there really are no Carper like votes from hell to hang on him. Suspect we’ll be muddling thru again.
There are plenty of potential candidates. Do they have to get out there earlier than Kerri Harris did? Yes, and I’m in no way blaming Kerri. She stood up when no one else would.
But I think that at least challenger one will.
Unless they changed the law, REV, the Presidential Primary is a different date than the Regular Primary. Spring for the former and September the latter. That would likely reduce the regular Primary turnout to the normal 40,000
State primaries take place a month after the national party conventions that choose their nominees.
You may be right. I didn’t remember. But now that you mention it I think I did vote for Eugene and Bernie on separate days.
Yet another ridiculous wrinkle that keeps turn-out good and low.