I’ve been thinking about this race. A lot. So many questions. Let’s ask (and try to answer) a few:
Will John Carney run for reelection? On one hand, he seems totally bored with being Governor. He has yet to put his stamp on the office, and he doesn’t appear to have anything approaching a direction for the remainder of his term. Unless ‘no direction’ is a direction. He never lusted after the political limelight. He was totally fine with being some sort of financial aparatchik until Tom Carper snatched him from obscurity and foisted Carney on Ruth Ann Minner as Carper’s ‘mini-me’. Absent that, he almost certainly would not have run for office on his own. Even many D’s who supported him recognize that there is an empty maw at the center of state government. Every governor has screw-ups, but most at least appear interested in fixing them. Carney just lets the problems fester.
OTOH, he appeared similarly bored as Lt. Governor and as our congressman, but he kept running. It could be boredom, could be sleep apnea, but he appears almost asleep while awake. He would be the favorite, if not the prohibitive favorite, if he chose to run. Why deviate from his well-trod path?
If Carney does run, his biggest advantage (his only advantage?) would be incumbency. Who would challenge him? Would only one someone primary him, or would he be the beneficiary of having multiple challengers (the answer is obviously yes to that question).
If Carney runs…who would challenge him? I’ll start with the obvious Republican candidate. The only Republican candidate who could give Carney a race: Anthony Delcollo. Before you dismiss this idea out-of-hand, consider the following: Delcollo won in a strong Democratic state senate district, unseating the President Pro-Tem in the process. That’s quite the accomplishment. Democrats who I talk to, both in the district and throughout the state, tell me that he’s built up a lot of good will in his first term. The Republican template is out there, although it’s been rejected by the Delaware Republican Party. I give you Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and Phil Scott in Vermont. If those three D bastions have R governors, there’s no reason why Delaware couldn’t. The only issue where Delcollo skews to the far right is the gun issue. In a race against the cipher that is John Carney, Delcollo would be the more likeable candidate. In fact, Delcollo would likely perform better against Carney than he would against pretty much any other D nominee. He would have to run as a progressive R on other issues, but he successfully cleared his first hurdle: He steered clear of taking a leadership position within the moribund Senate R caucus.
OK, kids, here’s where I want your ideas. Who would you consider as plausible primary challengers to Carney? Some possibilities: Eugene Young, Matt Denn, Bethany Hall Long. I know, I know, you’re saying that BHL would never challenge Carney. I think there’s a 20% chance. Why? She’s incredibly ambitious, she’d probably beat him in a primary, and she’d have a better chance of winning now than after 8 years as Carney’s feckless sidekick. Oh, and she’s got both a statewide operation and a sign-stealing team already in place. Matt Denn could/should have been Governor already if he hadn’t stepped in for Beau Biden. He’d be a wonderful progressive governor, but I don’t know if he’s even thinking about it. I’m using Eugene Young as a proxy for an insurgent progressive challenger. I don’t know if he’s gonna make another run for mayor, or just what he is considering. However, he’s already built up some nice political chits through his grassroots efforts, and he is as charismatic as they come. With Young running, Drew Serres would have a candidate who could well win statewide office.
What if Carney doesn’t run? Oh, man, that field (and a few others) would be wide open. Add, at a minimum, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Matt Meyer to the list. Hey, LBR could follow in Carney’s timid footsteps and become ‘the first woman of color…’ to be governor. She’d be at least marginally better. Likely at most marginally better as well. After some early missteps, I think Matt Meyer is doing a very effective job as NCC Executive, and governor, after all, is an executive position. I think LBR would be the favorite to win if she ran, and I think that the race for her congressional seat would be fascinating.
OK, if I haven’t given you enough to chew on, I’m losing what’s left of my luster.
What do y’all think?