With the help of the crazy man-baby in the White House, Delaware Democrats TROUNCED Delaware Republicans in 2018. But can they keep the momentum rolling in 2020? While some factors point to continuing Dem pickups, other factors will make it difficult for Dems to keep the flywheel turning.
Making pickups an uphill fight for Democrats is the fact that there are far fewer targets of opportunity for Democrats in 2020. In New Castle County only Michael Smith, Jeff Spiegelman, Kevin Hensley, and Mike Ramone remain in the house.
Ramone has been exposed for the fraud and crumb-bumb that he is. I’d rate him as beatable. After that, it looks like difficult terrain for Dems. Michael Smith won a squeaker thanks to DEGOP’s racist sign campaign, but this time he’ll be able to run as an “I’m not THAT kind of Republican” incumbent. Hensley should be beatable, but 9th RD Dems have never demonstrated an ability to get their shit together. Spiegelman got 65% against Paul Thornburg, but that district is changing, and if Thornburg sounded like he intended to keep his yard signs within reach. Outside of New Castle, only Steve Smyk got a scare in 2018, as John Bucchioni put together a good campaign.
The remaining Republicans in the house must be challenged, but the districts become increasingly dominated by Scott Walker voters toward the west.
In the Senate, Cathy Cloutier is up this round. Is she even running again? If no, that’s a D pickup. If yes, that still might be a Dem pickup. The only other Republican in a Dem Senate District is Anthony Delcollo who came in thanks to Trump coattails and Blevins fatigue in 2016. That should be a Dem pickup, as Democrats have already indicated that Delcollo is this year’s Lavelle. But incumbency is a high mountain to climb. Lawson is also up. He didn’t have an opponent in 2016. He will in 2020 and that might be a sleeper race to watch, as the Dems are showing strength in the Dover to Smyrna corridor.
Are there any R’s mentioned so far who can distance themselves from Trump? That might make it tougher for Dems to notch some pickups. Democratic leadership should be putting all of these people in very tough voting spots over the next two years. I doubt they will. Weak Democratic leadership is good news for R’s trying to hold in in 2020.
So, Dems only have one slam-dunk pickup in 2020 (Cloutier SD5), but it is going to be a presidential year and some other factors, can be viewed as predicting another blue wave in Delaware in 2020. More on that next time.
