Year: 2018

It will all come down to turn out. Republicans have always known it. Democrats are learning it.

"Tossup, or D Pickup?" That's the main question to answer when looking at the November matchups. Some candidates are good and some are weak, but this election day, unlike any other, will come down to voter engagement. Right now all early signs point to the fact that "R Pickup" isn't a high probability outcome in any race. Primary day turnout is instructive. 83,000 Democratic voters were moved to vote in the primary. Meanwhile, Republican turnout went from nearly 70,000 voters in the 2016 primary to just under 38,000 on Thursday. Importantly, the Harris campaign and other primary candidates focused on reaching new voters, young people, and people of color. Keeping those new voters and adding to their ranks may not be difficult given Trump's poll ratings in Delaware. (Approve:36 Disapprove: 58 No Opinion:6.) Those numbers, and the bloody flag being waved by President Obama, allow EVERY Democrat in every race to make Trump an issue in this election. That will push Republicans to either run toward or away from the President. A Kevin Hensley (for example) running toward Trump provides ammunition for his challenger and increases Dem turnout. A "nice polite Republican" like Hensley running away from the Cheeto provides the GOP nuts an excuse to stay home.

It has nothing to do with the local primaries, which went as I expected/feared they would. It's rather the latest development in the ongoing reality series "White House Apprentice." The…

STATE REP DIS 4: GERALD BRADY (D) UNOPPOSED D Hold STATE REP DIS 5: KENDRA JOHNSON (D) UNOPPOSED D Hold STATE REP DIS 6: DEBRA HEFFERNAN* (D) JEFFERY OLMSTEAD (R) D Hold STATE REP DIS 7: RAYMOND SEIGFRIED (D) ERIC BRAUNSTEIN (R) D Hold...but they're both basically the same guy.