“In the field of opportunity, it’s plowin’ time again.”- Neil Young.
Hoo, boy, ya’ think 2018 was fun? Let’s just check out 2020. Here’s who/what will be on the Election Day ballot:
US President: Yes, whether Trump runs could have an impact on Republican fortunes. If he does, support will be limited to western Sussex and some outposts in Kent. Period. If, say, he doesn’t, and say Nikki Haley gets the nomination, maybe some R suburban voters come home. Lotsa time to suss this one out, though.
US Senator: Chris Coons will run again. Once you’ve been anointed as perhaps Morning Joe’s fave senator, it’s tough to give up the spotlight. Will there be a D primary? I don’t know. How’s that for incisive analysis?
US Representative: This upcoming term will tell us more about whether LBR will be content to remain a career lightweight now that the D’s are in charge. She can actually sponsor legislation now. Difficult to see a successful primary challenge. She’s in Washington for awhile. Unless…
Governor: The race upon which a whole lot of other races pivot. So many questions. Will John Carney run again? If he does run, he no doubt will have a serious primary challenge. Remember his 2016 non-campaign? It was an insult to voters. He knew he was gonna win against ‘best bud’ Colin Bonini, and he didn’t deign to provide voters anything, anything, of substance. His first term makes Ruth Ann Minner look competent by contrast. His few accomplishments are courtesy of the Chamber and the business community: An end to the estate tax, privatizing economic development so that business insiders and legislative hacks can dole out state funds with no public oversight…um, I’m thinking, I’m thinking. He’s presided over a disastrous melting-down of the prison system and has no solutions in sight. His stop-gap strategy? Send prisoners out of state, save $8 a day. He not only is not up to the task of being governor, he shows no interest in doing anything constructive as governor. My fear is that more than one challenger will emerge, and the anti-Carney vote will be divvied up. I’d love to see progressives coalesce around one strong challenger. Don’t know who just yet, but I have every confidence that there will be one.
But what if Carney doesn’t run? We could be treated to a free-for-all primary not unlike the 2020 D presidential primary race. Does LBR come back from Congress to run? Does Bethany Hall-Long look to step up? What about Matt Denn, Bryan Townsend, Matt Meyer, Eugene Young, add your own names? And if LBR runs, does Kerri Evelyn Harris run for the House seat? Who will primary her? Like I said, a whole lot revolves around this particular race.
Lieutenant Governor: Incumbent Bethany Hall-Long is peripatetic. She can’t sit still. And you can bet that she’s not content to see Carney screwing stuff up and damaging her perceived political future. She’s stuck, though. Does she maybe primary her boss, run for governor if he doesn’t seek reelection (that’s a firm yes), or maybe seek a seat being vacated by one of the challengers to Carney? Hey, man, it’s the beginning of 2019, I just have questions, no answers.
Insurance Commissioner: Like most Delawareans, I have no idea whether Trinidad Navarro is doing a good job as IC. He certainly hasn’t been the blatant screw-up that his predecessor was, which should be enough. If he opts not to run for something else, he could probably win reelection rather handily. But, of course, two years is a long time.
Delaware State Senate:
The action will be hot and heavy here. You think there were lots of changes in the Senate this year? Just you wait:
Senate District 1: It looks like Harris McDowell is likely to retire after this term. Word is that there’s an outstanding successor waiting in the wings. Outstanding, I tell you. However this is one of the most politically-engaged electorates in the state, and I find it hard to believe that there wouldn’t be multiple challengers for this seat. I have a much higher regard for Harris than many of you, especially when you look at his entire career in context, but I think he stayed too long.
Senate District 5: Whether via retirement or by defeat at the polls, I think this seat swings D in 2020. Cathy Cloutier no longer lives in the district, the registration figures get more daunting by the day, she’s always run a mom-and-pop operation that will be insufficient against a well-organized challenger, and I think her being given a leadership position in a caucus that can’t stand her was the tip-off that it was a pension pad, and nothing more. I’d love to see Sean Matthews run. He, Laura Sturgeon, and Bryan Townsend would be a helluva public education caucus. But, if Sean chooses to stay put in the House, I’ve been told that Cathy will have a formidable opponent regardless. BTW, once this seat flips, it stays flipped.
Senate District 7: Few people have a more difficult political decision to make than Anthony Delcollo. He knocked off Patti Blevins in an upset that few saw coming back in 2016. By all accounts, he is popular in his district. However, being popular in your district and getting reelected in that district with Trump at the top of the ticket are two different things. Just look at those registration figures: 14,739 D; 6985 R; and 8631 I. Trump’s a lot less popular than he was even in 2016. Even good candidates get caught up in the wash under such circumstances (Ken Simpler, anybody?). And Delcollo presumably wouldn’t be running in a rematch with Blevins, who had become increasingly distant from her district. Delcollo is seen as the future (if it has a future) of the Republican Party in Delaware. So, does he run for Governor against an ineffectual John Carney, or does he run for reelection? Or does he just go back to fighting for the 2nd Amendment until the Trump stink-bomb clears?
State Senate District 8: I’ve been given no indication that Dave Sokola will retire. He did, however, win an uncomfortably-close reelection campaign against Meredith Chapman who, tragically, is no longer with us. Dave doesn’t strike me as having the kind of ego that will make him want to overstay his welcome. The numbers have become solidly D in what once was a swing-R district. For now, worth keeping an eye on this one, but there are no wisps of smoke yet.
State Senate District 9: While I would like to see a primary challenge to union guy John Walsh, there are bigger fish to fry. Starting with…
State Senate District 12: I assume that most loyal DL readers are familiar with how Nicole Poore has used her political office for personal and professional gain. She is every bit as ethically-bankrupt as Tony DeLuca was. Her office features a revolving door of lobbyists bearing gifts to this unworthy power-broker. SHE MUST BE PRIMARIED. If Delaware is becoming a one-party state, it’s up to Democrats to rid themselves of these leeches. Charles Potter is gone. Nicole Poore is even more of a leech than Potter (believe me, it pains me to write that sentence). The district is so overwhelmingly Democratic that the primary winner will be the next senator. Time to clean our own house.
State Senate District 13: It’s time. Dave McBride used to be a dependable D vote, and was a constituent services machine in his prime. About 25 years ago. He now lives in Lewes (yes he ‘maintains a residence’ in the district) and buried progressive legislation as President Pro-Tem. He’s also an old white guy in one of the more diverse Senate districts in the state. HE MUST BE PRIMARIED. No, he’s not corrupt like Nicole Poore, but then few are. Just a guy whose time has passed and has nothing more to offer the voters.
State Senate District 14: Bruce Ennis is retiring. While this district could be in play for the R’s, the registration figures are still strongly D: 16,982 D; 10,018 R; 9629 I. Theoretically a strong R could defeat a weak D if the circumstances are right, but this is not Trump country. Still we need to make sure that a weak D is not the nominee. Yes, I’m lookin’ at you, Lumpy Carson. Stay in your lane (not always easy after Happy Hour, I know, but still…), and let someone qualified run. Who will that be? Hey, it’s New Years, readers, get off your lazy asses and give me some names.
State Senate District 15: BREAKING NEWS (Of Sorts): Sen. Dave Lawson is retiring. Lead poisoning? Should the D’s play in this western Kent County District? Yes. The D’s committed political malpractice by not challenging Lawson in 2016. Back in 2012, one Kathleen Cooke got in the race late against Lawson, and almost beat him, garnering 47.7% against him. Then the D’s let him slide in 2016. Betcha they find someone this time around. They’d better. The district has a modest D registration edge, it’s a district that was held by Nancy Cook forever. Yes, it has skewed R more than the registration would suggest. But a good candidate can win. Wouldn’t hurt if there’s a weak R waiting in the wings either.
State Senate District 19: Meh. Either incumbent Brian Pettyjohn or someone just like him (in the unlikely event that he retires) will represent this district. Next.
State Senate District 20. Meh. Either incumbent Gerald Hocker or someone just like him (in the more likely event that he retires) will represent this district.
Hey, you thought I was just gonna coast into the New Year? Coming soon, or whenever I get around to it: Even more trenchant 2020 analysis from your trenchcoated sleepwalker.
Until then, Happy New Year!