Why? Because he is announcing next week. At least, as of today. I may be overstating the case. But if so, only by a week or two.
The initial flawed strategy was for him to delay his entry and remain above the fray. Apparently nobody in the campaign anticipated his hands-on proclivities and disastrous previous public policy forays (the crime bill, Anita Hill) from landing front and center. So, instead of allowing muck to attach to other candidates while he played the role of (very) elder statesman, he now emerges from the political lagoon like the Swamp Thing with hair plugs. And already behind Bernie Sanders in some polls.
He has stated that he is running as (a) the heir to the Obama years, and (b) as an “experienced, calm hand.” Experienced? Yes. Calm? Is this Joe Biden we’re speaking of? He’s not as manic as, say, Alexander Haig at his worst, but he’s not calm.
Even a non-critical look at his candidacy finds many reasons why his campaign will fail: (1) He has sucked as a presidential candidate in the past. (2) The same suspects who mismanaged those previous campaigns are back. (3) His record is extremely vulnerable in the Democratic Party of 2020. (4) How is he gonna sell the likelihood that he won’t make similar mistakes to the disastrous ones he’s already admitted to (Crime Bill, Anita Hill) in his 80’s that he made in his 50’s? (5) What is his constituency beyond Tom Sharp/Reagan Democrats who have built up decades of resentment over ‘uppity’ blacks? (6) He is old, but without the raison d’etre of Bernie’s candidacy. (7) He will commit gaffes, but gaffes this time will only serve to amplify concerns about his age and competence. (8) His record of fighting for the corporatist banking interests will (deservedly) make him exceedingly vulnerable to political attacks, especially from Warren and Sanders.
That’s just off the top of my head.
I will stake what’s left of my blogging reputation in arguing that Biden’s campaign will implode before things get really serious.
Disagree? To quote Andy Reid, “Time’s yours.”