So Simple Even Kos Gets It
I find myself disagreeing with Markos Moulitsas when he says things like “Democrats must nominate a woman” and similar proclamations that are too calculating by half. I also dislike his not-subtle anti-Bernie bias. But even Kos understands that Democrats pay too much attention to trying to avoid riling up Trump’s base. As he points out, they are permanently riled, so it’s up to Democrats to make sure their base, which is more easily distracted, is motivated to turn out.
Democrats have to get comfortable accepting that 2020 won’t be a persuadable election, it’ll be a base-turnout one (just like 2018). There are more of us, and Democrats need to make sure they are responsive to the needs and demands of that base, because if our people vote (black voters, Latinos, Asians, young voters, single women, urban whites), there’s nothing Trump can do to make up the difference.
Agreed, Trump’s base is an eternally boiling cauldron of hatred and fear and not worthy of consideration. Also as noted 2020 will be a contest to see who can motivate their voters to the polls and can the Dems pull off Blue Wave Part II.
I don’t think anyone argues with characterizing the pursuit of Trump’s base as a fools errand. Like Trump, they have limited attention spans and limited sources of information. So there is simply no method by which to communicate with them, much less persuade them.
However, Trump did not walk in to the White House by his base alone. While there is a stereotypical Trump base supporter, a large number of voters, who voted in the Democratic primary also voted for Trump in the general. The reasons are varied, but regardless, not making an attempt to reach the non-base supporters would also seem to be foolish.
@Dave: I agree with you, but that’s not Kos’ point. I agree with him that the people who see the Democrats as nothing but Lite Republicans will stay home if the nominee is someone uninspiring, for instance Joe Biden.
That’s why Hillary lost. Trump got almost exactly as many total votes as Romney got in 2012, but Hillary could not turn out the base with her business-as-usual appeal. Biden is making the same appeal — let’s go back to business as it was. This is, IMO, uninspiring in the extreme.
In short, the number of people who switched from Obama to Trump is dwarfed by the number who switched from Obama to not voting. I don’t have a link at the moment, but the former is measured in the tens of thousands, the latter in the millions.
It would be nice if this was not either/or, but I’m afraid it is. I’m sure there are people who would prefer Trump to any Democrat who’s not Biden, but I think they’re outnumbered by those who see less difference between them than you or I do.
I might be in the minority, but I see Trump as an existential threat to the nation. Because of my belief, there is simply no candidate I can imagine who would not mitigate that threat.
The means, regardless of how far to left the nominee is I would still have to support them, with the hope that the system of checks and balances would serve as a moderator for aspirational, but unrealistic (IMO) programs.
I can’t put it in any more direly. He is a clear and present danger. I would hope that most clear thinking people would comprehend that. I’m probably wrong. So I don’t have high hopes.