‘Hot-stove’ not to be taken literally, of course. But there will be some significant change in the Senate, and I figured that it’s time to talk about it. So today we look at every State Senate district that will be up in 2020, and examine what could happen.
Senate District 1: Incumbent Senator Harris B. McDowell III has announced that he will retire at the end of his term. While I will write a lengthy appreciation at a later date, I want you to know that no senator, in fact no state legislator, has more progressive accomplishments to his name than Sen. McDowell. No one’s even close. However, his successor has a tremendous opportunity to build on his legacy, especially with several promising young senators either in place or on the way. It has been a poorly-kept semi-secret that Sarah McBride is planning to run for this seat, and she will be formidable. She’s already demonstrated the ability to build grassroots support throughout the state, and she’s as dynamic and charismatic as they come. However, there are almost certain to be other candidates, some of whom have likely been chafing at the bit to run for years in this Democratic stronghold. The winner could well be dictated by the mix of candidates. The district extends from north Wilmington through Bellefonte and up the Philly Pike to Claymont. I see that someone mentioned Larry Lambert‘s name. I’m not sure that he is in the 1st SD, but I like Larry and voted for him when he ran in the 7th RD primary to replace Bryon Short. I don’t see the R’s as having a chance here, so the primary will be the general.
Senate District 5: Senator Cathy Cloutier, who no longer resides in her district, says she is running again. If so, she’s in for the political fight of her life, one I believe she won’t survive. Right now there are two D candidates preparing to run, and one is exceedingly formidable. She’s an attorney who has already built an enviable record during her relatively short career. She will be able to raise a lot of money, she has a team in place, and she is expected to announce soon. Until then, I will honor a confidence and not jump the gun. Eric Levin, who took one for the D team back in 2006 by challenging Greg Lavelle and keeping the Monsignor tied down in his district, has indicated that he will run. I don’t think that he can win the expected primary, but I think a primary may well be a good thing. Why? Because the registration in this once-solid R Brandywine Hundred district is solidly D now. As in 14,660 D; 10,521 R; and 8751 I. I wouldn’t mind a primary where D voters are introduced to a prospective new star in the Senate. A couple of points: (1) In fairness to Cloutier, she lives much closer to her district than does Sen. Dave McBride of Lewes, DE; and (2) virtually every incumbent says that they’re running again until the genuine prospect of losing comes into focus.
Senate District 7: Word is that Senator Anthony Delcollo will seek reelection in this district that includes Elsmere, Faulkland Heights, Prices Corner and the like. Delcollo edged out incumbent Senator Patti Blevins by less than 300 votes in 2016. By all accounts, he has been great on constituent services. However, he represents a district that went strongly for Clinton in 2016, and he saddled Blevins with an unpopular traffic issue for which she was only partially to blame. He can lose, based on registration and turnout alone. For that to happen, though, he needs a legit challenger. My choice would be Jordyn Pusey, who almost defeated political hack Ken Woods for a County Council seat. The registration?: 14,841 D; 6933 R; 8667 I. That’s almost a D majority as opposed to a plurality. It would be political malpractice for the D’s not to aggressively challenge this seat.
Senate District 8: It now appears that Senator Dave Sokola will seek reelection. That is real good news. As far as I’m concerned, I’d like to see him build a coalition and become the President Pro-Tempore of the Senate. Dave has rarely won by huge margins in this still-swing district that includes portions of Hockessin and North Star. When it was rumored that he might not seek reelection, word was that first-term R Rep. Michael Smith might run for the seat. I doubt that he’d run against an incumbent, but you never know as Smith is one of the most vulnerable House incumbents, if not the most vulnerable incumbent. Registration: 10,592 D; 7848 R; 7268 I. Sokola’s running for reelection makes this a likely D hold, but it’s not guaranteed.
Senate District 9: Looks like the Karen Peterson era was the exception, not the rule. With her departure, the district has reverted to the Tom Sharp trade union/Reagan Democrat model that preceded it. John Walsh got over 57% of the vote against a Peterson-backed candidate, and I see little likelihood that this will change. It’s an overwhelmingly D district, so look for Walsh to cruise to reelection. And to continue to oppose common sense gun laws.
Senate District 12: The question is simple. Will anybody primary Nicole Poore in this overwhelmingly D district? Poore has established herself as the Senate’s version of Val Longhurst, ethically-bankrupt and more than willing to use her power to punish her enemies. Too many cower in fear of her. She and Val are currently drinkin’ buddies again, and their work on behalf of the Underground City At Fort DuPont reflects that. Her only loyalty is to herself, not to the D Party or its principles. Which is why she and Dave McBride killed the gun bills, why she and Dave McBride sought to clear the field for Colin Bonini. Her bullshit job that she only got because of her elective status should really be used against her in a primary. It won’t be easy, but a credible challenger could conceivably unseat her. I don’t even have a name, though. Well, I did have a name, but it looks like that potential challenger will go after Bill Bell in a county council primary instead. We know him, we love him.
Senate District 13: Do you live in SD 13? Are you a Democrat? Would you like to be a State Senator? Here’s what you need to do: File to run against incumbent Dave McBride. He lives in Lewes now, far from this New Castle to Bear area district. He hasn’t had a competitive race in three decades, and has the rust to prove it. If you are a credible challenger, McBride might decide that spending time at his home at the beach is more attractive than actually running for reelection. It really could be that easy. He’s something like 75 now. He’s ready to be defeated. Or to retire. I’ve heard one name, someone who ran for legislative office in 2018 and lost, but did creditably. She’s ambivalent, though, about running. There is no need to be ambivalent. Only a lack of a decent challenger can keep McBride in office. If, as a D, you’re happy with his burial of minimum wage legislation, if you’re happy with his killing of common-sense gun bills, if you’re happy with his obeisance to the Carney/Rethug corporate agenda, then you’re happy with McBride. If you’re not, though, remember this: The defeat of McBride is perhaps the best and most realistic path that progressives have to exert their will in the Senate. C’mon, who wants to be a hero?
Senate District 14: We don’t know yet whether Sen. Bruce Ennis will run for reelection. He had had some health problems that now seem to be behind him. His wife also passed away. I think he may be leaning towards running again because, without his wife, maybe Legislative Hall is his home now. For those who have argued that Ennis needs to be challenged, be careful what you wish for. There may well be a promising D in this area who is electable, but I don’t know who yet. I can guarantee you that Rep. Lumpy Carson would be a huge step down from Ennis. Do you have any names? There also may well be an R rep like Spiegelman who could flip the seat if it became open. Since the 2020 election is for a two-year term only, I think that D’s would be best-served if Bruce ran for that two-year term. The district could then look significantly different by 2022. Whaddayathink?
Senate District 15: Like Sen. Ennis, this ex-cop/gun range owner has made noises about retiring. While you’re never gonna get a McDowell-type in this district, removing the Sharia Law-fearing right-winger is a net positive. Back in 2012, a political newcomer named Kathleen Cooke almost knocked off Lawson. A juggernaut he is not. He edged out Nancy Cook much in the same way that Delcollo knocked off Patti Blevins. Both incumbents spent more time in Leg Hall than in their districts, and their constituents took notice. The district has a nominal D edge: 14,744 D; 12,067 D; and 10,080 I. I think it skews more R than the registration. However, a quality D candidate has a solid shot here, with or without Lawson.
Senate District 19: This is a solid R district and will remain that way. The incumbent is Brian Pettyjohn. He ran unopposed in 2016. Doesn’t matter whether he, or another R, runs unopposed this time. Some districts are just not in play. Especially in Sussex County. This is one of them.
Senate District 20: There have been rumblings that Sen./Greengrocer Gerald Hocker might be thinking of retirement. If he retires, this seat is only marginally more competitive than SD 19. A generic D got less than 28% of the vote in 2016. For all intents and purposes, not in play.
OK, that should be enough to get y’all riled up. Have at it!
