Delaware Liberal

On COVID-19 Seasonality & Latitude

The Flu is seasonal. There are research papers on why this happens, and it is very possible that COVID-19 will be seasonal too.

Here is an optimistic paper that suggests seasonality: Temperature and Latitude Analysis to Predict Potential Spread and Seasonality for COVID-19

 

Given the temporal spread among areas with similar temperature and latitude, some predictions can tentatively be made about the potential community spread of COVID-19 in the coming weeks. Using 2019 temperature data for March and April, risk of community spread could be predicted to affect areas just north of the current areas at risk (Figure 3). These could include (from East to West) Manchuria, Central Asia, the Caucuses, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, the British Isles, the Northeastern and Midwestern United States, and British Columbia. However, this simplified analysis does not take into account the effect of warming temperatures. The marked drop in cases in Wuhan could well be linked to corresponding recent rising temperatures there (Table 1).

 

This suggests temperature and humidity may be factors in the spread of COVID-19. If this is the case, then the spread of the disease might slow sharply in May.

This is a possibility, but not a certainty. If there is seasonality, we need to prepare for a resurgence of the disease in the Fall.

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