El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em All For You: ‘The Toughies’
OK, first some ‘truth in advertising’. Not gonna predict ’em all for you. Not gonna pick all those Wilmington council races, not gonna pick any Kent County Levy Court or Sussex County Council races. There are already enough races where I’m pretty much throwing darts. In fact, my only guarantee this year is that I’ll get more than one of the following wrong. Let’s get started with the one I’ve deliberately been putting off:
US Senate (D): Chris Coons over Jessica Scarane. I was holding off for a possible last-week appeal from AOC, but it didn’t happen. Jess has run an extraordinary campaign, and she’s closed strong. Her TV spot is great, and her signs are popping up in surprising numbers and surprising locations. I think she might’ve won–if not for the pandemic. Oh, and if not for Chris Coons being all over that virtual convention. It’s apparent that a tremendous amount of planning went into her run. It was clearly designed to pick up where Kerry Evelyn Harris’ campaign left off. The campaign even did well when the pandemic changed the nature of the plan. But the absence of that grassroots public element will likely do her in. I love that Jess has been so supportive of other progressive campaigns, providing them free face time and even contributing to them. I hope that this is just the beginning for her. Also hope my prediction’s wrong. I do think she gets well over 40%. So, she could win.
US Senate (R): Lauren Witzke over Jim DeMartino. She’s (marginally) loonier than he is, and she’s hotter, as perceived by the downstate mouth-breathers, who sure salivated over ‘born-again’ virgin Christine O’Donnell. History teaches us that’s a winning combination for Delaware Rethug primary candidates.
Delaware Governor (R): Hoo, boy, what a rogues’ gallery. We’re gonna have to do this by the process of elimination. David Bosco and David Graham get axed first, but you’d be cheating yourselves if you didn’t click on the links I provided. You’re welcome. State Senator Bryant Richardson is next. He has no statewide profile (although he’s running as G-d’s Candidate), and I can’t help but wonder if he ran to drain votes away from fellow senator and serial bloviator Colin Bonini. I think he succeeds somewhat in that goal in Sussex County, and Colin Bonini doesn’t get his 39% rematch with John Carney. Leaving…the endorsed candidate Julianne Murray and, yes, the Driftwood Grifter, Scott Walker. Walker’s wilful ignorance has already proven to play well with those downstate R voters. And he has name recognition. Meaning, yes, I predict that Scott Walker once again wins a statewide R primary. Arguably the worst person in Delaware. Jane Brady should be so very proud.
State Senate District 13 (D): Marie Pinkney over Dave McBride. She’s peaking at just the right time while McBride, who has already blown through $100,000, needs a last minute infusion of dark money cash. He’s worried. She is a great candidate and an even better person. Dave’s campaign has been nothing but signs (he’s obsessed with them), and I don’t think he’s ID’d his voters like Marie’s campaign has. It’s a tough lift, but I think she gets there.
State Senate District 14 (R): Craig Pugh over Terrance Lee Baker. Looks like Pugh is the Party candidate in an area where that might just mean something.
Rep. District 7 (D): Ray Seigfried over Larry Lambert. This may be the closest race of the night, and I am far from certain that I’m getting this one right. I really like both candidates, and I’ll be voting for Larry. Ray won a five-way primary in 2018 to replace legislator-turned-lobbyist Bryon Short. Larry was a close second, and might have won had it been just he and Ray on the ballot. Ray now has the advantage of incumbency, and he has been valuable in Dover, especially on health policy. Having said that, on issues that have been brought to the fore by the Black Lives Matter movement, Larry has walked the walk for decades. I find it more than a little ironic that, in the Ardens, where I live, you see a lot of Black Lives Matter signs and Ray signs side-by-side. The irony being that, if you really care about BLM issues, Larry is the clear choice. It’s kind-of a case of two districts: the part to the west of 95 (Seigfried) and the part east of 95 (Lambert). Whoever wins, voters in the 7th RD also win.
Rep. District 8 (D): Matthew Powell over Rae Moore and Yvette Santiago. OK, I have no inside info on the dynamics of this race (that’s where you come in). I’m guessing Powell b/c (a) he seems most like Q. Johnson (buttoned-down white guy) and (b) the minority vote could be split between Moore and Santiago. That’s all I’ve got.
Rep. District 26 (D): Madinah Wilson-Anton over John Viola and Gabriel Adelagunja. I’d be more certain if someone hadn’t gotten this spoiler into the race. Viola has actually run an aggressive race, and he could win if Madinah’s supporters don’t turn out in large enough numbers. But, her pre-pandemic door-to-door gives her the edge.
Rep. District 27 (D): Eric Morrison over Earl Jaques. Back in February, when I first met all of the Leftward Delaware/WFP candidates running this year, I had Morrison pegged as the least likely of them to win. He may now be the most likely to win. He’s knocked on over 9000 doors, and Jaques has not run with the same energy as Viola has. I hope Eric wins. I’m sure that Speaker Pete and Our PAL Val will just love him.
Rep. District 34 (D): Ade Kofuriji over Bob Haynes. Only because Ade ran before. Other than that, I couldn’t care less about this race to face Lyndon Yearick in the fall.
New Castle County Clerk Of The Peace (D): Aja Ajavon over Lisa Darrah. Ajavon has better name recognition, labor is largely split in this race, and Darrah still retains that stench from her stealth entry into the contest. Darrah’s sign has the ‘place of honor’ at the IBEW local on Basin Road (they also support McBride), Tiny Tony’s stompin’ grounds. One more reason to support Aja.
New Castle County Council President: Ciro Poppiti over Karen Hartley-Nagle and Monique Johns. Ciro has at least as much name recognition as KHN and, for the most part, it’s positive name recognition. Karen’s, not so much. KHN had a much more favorable match-up last time. Time for her to find someone else to sue.
NCC Council District 12(D): Kevin Caneco over Bill Bell. This race has similar dynamics to Dave Carter’s win over Bill Powers in 2018. I believe a similar result, too. It dawns on me that Wilmington City Council is the Bizarro World version of New Castle County Council (well, once you get rid of KHN).
Wilmington Treasurer (D): Dawayne Sims over Vash Turner. Turner could win here. After all, he’s been elected before, albeit not citywide. But I think Sims rides Mayor Mike’s coattails.
I welcome any feedback, especially critical feedback. I welcome any predictions on the City Council races. Feel free to make your own predictions. For better or (most likely) for worse, mine are out there for all to see. Just do me a favor. If you’re gonna disagree, please apply some logic to your reasoning. That’s how you have a conversation.
overlapping insurgent primaries in NCC will help Scarane build on Harris’ work. But yes, Coons has to be viewed as the favorite.
I can’t overstate how much I love her campaign. She marshaled her resources for the last few weeks. If she doesn’t win, it’ll be b/c she was a victim of circumstances that nobody could have anticipated.
“US Senate (D): Chris Coons over Jessica Scarane.”
Your defeatism is much appreciated over at her opponents campaign HQ.
In case he squeaks by, have a look in the mirror for the reason why.
What an illogical, bullshit statement. You’re seriously claiming a blog read by maybe a thousand people is going to sway the election? You seriously think El Som is in some way duty-bound to lie about how he thinks the election will play out?
If so, you’re an asshole.
Whether El Som is lying or pulling hunches from his backside, his defeatism is still as damaging and irresponsible.
You have not demonstrated that it is either. All you have is your factually deficient opinion, which you have demonstrated isn’t reliable because you think lying would be better for your candidate.
So, in summation, you have shown yourself to be an asshole.
Just to be clear on this, I have donated to Jessica’s campaign, and I do not think she will reach 40%. This is because I have the ability — one you apparently lack — to tell the difference between what I want to happen and what the facts on the ground indicate will happen.
“I have donated to Jessica’s campaign, and I do not think she will reach 40%.” – alby
I’ve donated to Jessica’s campaign. Our yard is rockin’ her yard sign. But how is expressing doubts to all and sundry that she won’t reach 40% serve to ensure she will reach 50%+ .
There is nothing I can do to ensure she reaches 50%. Nor is there anything you can do to ensure she reaches 50%.
You have no evidence whatever that expressing this belief does a single thing to convince somebody to vote for Chris Coons.
“All and sundry,” as I said, amounts to perhaps 1,000 people. You apparently think people are so incredibly weak-minded that a single expressed doubt of her victory will sink her candidacy.
But hey, you’re rockin’ her yard sign, so she’s sure to win.
“Defeatism is damaging and irresponsible.”
No, casting aspersions and calling for self-censorship is damaging and irresponsible.
I always enjoy when lefties show themselves to be as totalitarian as any conservative.
“I welcome any feedback, especially critical feedback.” – El Som (emphasis added)
Hey alby … just doing what the man asked .
Your feedback amounted to “shut up.” That’s not legitimate feedback.
You have produced many comments yet not one single actual endorsement of her candidacy — just criticism of people clear-eyed enough to realize she’s unlikely to win.
Let’s just agree that I think replacing a tool beholden to organized money with a regular person beholden to regular people is more important than your free speech absolutism.
Oh, please. I’ve supported Jess, and continue to support Jess. I and our other bloggers have written chapter and verse as to why we feel that way. We have contributed money, and have encouraged others to contribute.
But this is a prediction thread, and that’s my prediction. You will note that nowhere did I say she doesn’t have a chance.
I’ve done these predictions since, I think 2010. I’ve been right, I’ve been wrong. I’m not Nostradamus.
But I try to be credible and to explain the reasoning behind my predictions. I’ll be every bit as happy as you if I prove to be wrong on the Scarane/Coons race. But, seriously? Jess won’t fold her tents. Neither will, say, Maggie Jones, who I’ve predicted to get smoked.
Of course you do. Because in a competition of ideas you have nothing but your personal opinion to defend yourself with, and you base those opinions on nothing factual — just your feeeeeelings.
“Free speech absolutism”? If you were any bigger an asshole you’d be Donald Trump. Takes lack of brains to accuse someone of that on their own blog.
Fuck off, little lefty, fuck all the way off. You’re a leftist the way Stalin was a leftist.
No you’re not. You cut out the part where I wrote:
“Just do me a favor. If you’re gonna disagree, please apply some logic to your reasoning.”
We can both agree that you haven’t done that.
I’m voting for Walker. I just want to see if he wins if he signs executive orders in crayon
Nope. Paint, with block stencil lettering.
Progressive State Rep. Ray Siegfried is they guy who will be able to get the big things done for Claymont and Gwinhurst in Leg. Hall. Larry talks a good game but him taking credit for bringing Covid testing and food for the needing is despicable and not honest. Just showing up with a yellow vest and posing for FB posts at someone else’s event is not the heavy lifting we need. Larry will just be another backbencher in Dover with only the universal Community Transportation Funds to show for it.
I live in Gwinhust within sight of Perkins Creek. Ray is a perfectly nice guy. Larry will do more for the Poor, the Black and Brown and those affected by the scourge of heroin which is epidemic in the Philly Pike Gov Printz corridor. Further the veiled and not so veiled personal attacks on Larry are what’s despicable.
I am all in with Jess and suggest you send her a few last minute bucks!
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/jess-website?refcode=header
I am also all in with Marie and suggest the same, parucularly in view of the tsunami of REALLY DARK money McBride has amassed!
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/marie4senate
What’s his plan regarding heroin?
What is despicable it taking credit for others good deeds. I’ll chalk these instances up to lapses in judgement because Larry is a perfectly nice guy…Me and others I’ve spoken to believe Larry has given no honest reason to take out Ray. If Ray was a DINO, or just out to collect a paycheck or place a mark on his bucket list, I’d be with Larry 100 percent. It’s more like the Rep job is a goal and he’d take out a good guy who has made GA inroads already in his first term to achieve it. Larry never excepted defeat in September 2018 and has been running against Ray ever since. I’m not comfortable with that.
They’re both excellent candidates with different priorities. Not opposing priorities, different priorities. To suggest that he should just stand down b/c Ray got a handful more votes in a five-way primary in 2018 is…disingenuous.
I’m eagerly awaiting the answer to my question. Saying that Larry will better represent people struggling with addiction is the claim. I want to hear the basis for that claim, specifically, why replacing a guy who knows the health care system with someone who doesn’t would be the smart way to go with a public health issue.
Sorry to be tardy but i was walking the 13th SD for Marie an Jess to counter the Dark Money twins!
My experience in the addiction and recovery community is 36 years of my own recovery, leading the Governors Council on Substance Abuse and mental Health and an aggregate 10 year as President , Executive and outside consultant for 3 non profits.
My experience with Larry is his boots on the ground work. What impresses me most is that Larry has worked with both addicted folks and active dealers up close and personal. He is on the BOD of Claymont Boys and Girls club and has coordinated with Tomaro’s Change a behavioral Heath agency for youth and Aquila Drug. Treatment Center for Teens.
Not long ago I walked the streets of Claymont with Lt. Gov. Hall Long ,Dr. Gibney and my clients staff dispensing Narcan. These are the kinds of things that Larry has done.
I will say again that I respect Ray and those that support him. His service in Health Care Administration is real. It is also real that he has taken over $4000 from Health care Pacs and Lobbyists including Highmark and Pfizer.
Larry is prepared to get out on the streets of Overlook colony and the other disadvantaged areas of my community and shape policy to bring change.
Thanks, Joe. I was just wondering if he had some specific proposals.
I hope that whoever wins and whoever loses, they can both bring their experience to bear on this problem. The first thing we need AFAIK is more beds for treatment, and getting our Chamber-loving government to spend money on that has proven difficult.
Larry absolutely has the right to have a rematch as does Joseph Daigle who only received 15 votes fewer than Larry. Although I usually tend agree with you, I don’t think Larry would have won in a two person primary. I believe Joe Daigle’s and Cathy Imburgia’s votes would have skewed towards Ray. It’s not just my conclusion but one of those candidates also. As for Rose Izzo’s supporters g-d only knows what is in their heads. I do agree with you that on 9/16 Claymont will still be OK. But in one scenario we will have less influence in the General Assembly.
Whether Ray or Larry wins, I look for Claymont to have MORE influence in the next General Assembly, with Sarah McBride becoming the new state senator for part of Claymont.
I don’t know who would have won a two-way primary in 2018. I think that you and I may agree that it was Joe Daigle’s race to lose, and he just didn’t run a strong campaign. That was a strange primary.
And remember, I’ve predicted Ray to win a close contest.
Scott Walker winning AGAIN would be… well, it’d be something
I’ll buy you a beer if it happens
Why isn’t there an 11-way primary for Lt Gov on the Repugs side? Or is there? I only see Hall’s signs
Because there’s a filing fee.
Because Lt. Gov. is a powerless position. You’re running a campaign to be an elected mascot.
For what it’s worth I am 100% supporting Rep. Seigfried in his reelection bid. In the past session I’ve gotten to know Ray and can attest to the fact that he is one of the most thoughtful and intelligent Representatives in the House. I have worked closely with him on many issues and I am impressed with his knowledge and compassion for Delaware working families and the needs of the most vulnerable Delawareans. I have no reason to disparage his opponent but if any of you reading this trust my judgement, honesty and credentials as a progressive than I assure you that Ray Seigfried is a true progressive and will further the progressive agenda in Delaware.
Representative John Kowalko
For 9/16:
It’s only when the tide goes out that you learn who has been swimming naked.
I think Dyane Sims is going to win Treasure’s race. Turner has no experience in financial matters. His actions on City Council label him a trouble maker and he is tied in with the Potter gang. He should of ran for his current sit.
What?!?!? No financial experience? What do you call gold backed digital currency? Duhhh