OK, first some ‘truth in advertising’. Not gonna predict ’em all for you. Not gonna pick all those Wilmington council races, not gonna pick any Kent County Levy Court or Sussex County Council races. There are already enough races where I’m pretty much throwing darts. In fact, my only guarantee this year is that I’ll get more than one of the following wrong. Let’s get started with the one I’ve deliberately been putting off:
US Senate (D): Chris Coons over Jessica Scarane. I was holding off for a possible last-week appeal from AOC, but it didn’t happen. Jess has run an extraordinary campaign, and she’s closed strong. Her TV spot is great, and her signs are popping up in surprising numbers and surprising locations. I think she might’ve won–if not for the pandemic. Oh, and if not for Chris Coons being all over that virtual convention. It’s apparent that a tremendous amount of planning went into her run. It was clearly designed to pick up where Kerry Evelyn Harris’ campaign left off. The campaign even did well when the pandemic changed the nature of the plan. But the absence of that grassroots public element will likely do her in. I love that Jess has been so supportive of other progressive campaigns, providing them free face time and even contributing to them. I hope that this is just the beginning for her. Also hope my prediction’s wrong. I do think she gets well over 40%. So, she could win.
US Senate (R): Lauren Witzke over Jim DeMartino. She’s (marginally) loonier than he is, and she’s hotter, as perceived by the downstate mouth-breathers, who sure salivated over ‘born-again’ virgin Christine O’Donnell. History teaches us that’s a winning combination for Delaware Rethug primary candidates.
Delaware Governor (R): Hoo, boy, what a rogues’ gallery. We’re gonna have to do this by the process of elimination. David Bosco and David Graham get axed first, but you’d be cheating yourselves if you didn’t click on the links I provided. You’re welcome. State Senator Bryant Richardson is next. He has no statewide profile (although he’s running as G-d’s Candidate), and I can’t help but wonder if he ran to drain votes away from fellow senator and serial bloviator Colin Bonini. I think he succeeds somewhat in that goal in Sussex County, and Colin Bonini doesn’t get his 39% rematch with John Carney. Leaving…the endorsed candidate Julianne Murray and, yes, the Driftwood Grifter, Scott Walker. Walker’s wilful ignorance has already proven to play well with those downstate R voters. And he has name recognition. Meaning, yes, I predict that Scott Walker once again wins a statewide R primary. Arguably the worst person in Delaware. Jane Brady should be so very proud.
State Senate District 13 (D): Marie Pinkney over Dave McBride. She’s peaking at just the right time while McBride, who has already blown through $100,000, needs a last minute infusion of dark money cash. He’s worried. She is a great candidate and an even better person. Dave’s campaign has been nothing but signs (he’s obsessed with them), and I don’t think he’s ID’d his voters like Marie’s campaign has. It’s a tough lift, but I think she gets there.
State Senate District 14 (R): Craig Pugh over Terrance Lee Baker. Looks like Pugh is the Party candidate in an area where that might just mean something.
Rep. District 7 (D): Ray Seigfried over Larry Lambert. This may be the closest race of the night, and I am far from certain that I’m getting this one right. I really like both candidates, and I’ll be voting for Larry. Ray won a five-way primary in 2018 to replace legislator-turned-lobbyist Bryon Short. Larry was a close second, and might have won had it been just he and Ray on the ballot. Ray now has the advantage of incumbency, and he has been valuable in Dover, especially on health policy. Having said that, on issues that have been brought to the fore by the Black Lives Matter movement, Larry has walked the walk for decades. I find it more than a little ironic that, in the Ardens, where I live, you see a lot of Black Lives Matter signs and Ray signs side-by-side. The irony being that, if you really care about BLM issues, Larry is the clear choice. It’s kind-of a case of two districts: the part to the west of 95 (Seigfried) and the part east of 95 (Lambert). Whoever wins, voters in the 7th RD also win.
Rep. District 8 (D): Matthew Powell over Rae Moore and Yvette Santiago. OK, I have no inside info on the dynamics of this race (that’s where you come in). I’m guessing Powell b/c (a) he seems most like Q. Johnson (buttoned-down white guy) and (b) the minority vote could be split between Moore and Santiago. That’s all I’ve got.
Rep. District 26 (D): Madinah Wilson-Anton over John Viola and Gabriel Adelagunja. I’d be more certain if someone hadn’t gotten this spoiler into the race. Viola has actually run an aggressive race, and he could win if Madinah’s supporters don’t turn out in large enough numbers. But, her pre-pandemic door-to-door gives her the edge.
Rep. District 27 (D): Eric Morrison over Earl Jaques. Back in February, when I first met all of the Leftward Delaware/WFP candidates running this year, I had Morrison pegged as the least likely of them to win. He may now be the most likely to win. He’s knocked on over 9000 doors, and Jaques has not run with the same energy as Viola has. I hope Eric wins. I’m sure that Speaker Pete and Our PAL Val will just love him.
Rep. District 34 (D): Ade Kofuriji over Bob Haynes. Only because Ade ran before. Other than that, I couldn’t care less about this race to face Lyndon Yearick in the fall.
New Castle County Clerk Of The Peace (D): Aja Ajavon over Lisa Darrah. Ajavon has better name recognition, labor is largely split in this race, and Darrah still retains that stench from her stealth entry into the contest. Darrah’s sign has the ‘place of honor’ at the IBEW local on Basin Road (they also support McBride), Tiny Tony’s stompin’ grounds. One more reason to support Aja.
New Castle County Council President: Ciro Poppiti over Karen Hartley-Nagle and Monique Johns. Ciro has at least as much name recognition as KHN and, for the most part, it’s positive name recognition. Karen’s, not so much. KHN had a much more favorable match-up last time. Time for her to find someone else to sue.
NCC Council District 12(D): Kevin Caneco over Bill Bell. This race has similar dynamics to Dave Carter’s win over Bill Powers in 2018. I believe a similar result, too. It dawns on me that Wilmington City Council is the Bizarro World version of New Castle County Council (well, once you get rid of KHN).
Wilmington Treasurer (D): Dawayne Sims over Vash Turner. Turner could win here. After all, he’s been elected before, albeit not citywide. But I think Sims rides Mayor Mike’s coattails.
I welcome any feedback, especially critical feedback. I welcome any predictions on the City Council races. Feel free to make your own predictions. For better or (most likely) for worse, mine are out there for all to see. Just do me a favor. If you’re gonna disagree, please apply some logic to your reasoning. That’s how you have a conversation.