Hensley is the luckiest motherfucker in the GOP. Let’s get that out of the way right now. He has faced lackluster candidates and Democratic candidates hobbled by a shitty RD Committee in which BHL still exercises some influence. In Blue Wave presidential and mid-terms Democratic weaknesses have allowed him to keep his head above water.
That said, he does have some political skills. He is friendly, shows up at HOA meetings. Calls Deldot when constituents ask him to call Deldot. You know…The normal stuff. Also, unlike the rest of NCC, the 9th is Blue, but not dark blue.
Out of the 23,217 registered voters in the 9th 10,317 are Dems, 6,999 are Repugs and 5,901 identify as other. 10K to 7k seems good, but as Kevin Caneco found out there are a lot of people of dubious character registered as Dems (for union reasons?) who vote more like Republicans.
For example, in spite fo the Dem lead on paper, Clinton lost to Trump in the 9th with 46.4% to 48.3% of the vote. (Yes. 5.5% of voters in the 9th tossed their votes in the garbage. But that’s another story.)
So, can Debbie Harrington Beat Kevin Hensley in the 9th? She is a serious candidate who was not forced to wasted money and energy in a primary, and it is difficult to imagine more favorable electoral conditions for a down ballot Dem.
If I had to call it today I think we are looking at 50% Harrington, 48% Hensley
