Delaware’s Most (Only) Intriguing Races Of 2020: Part 2
In general, the thread for most of these races will be the same: Can an R incumbent overcome both registration and turnout disadvantages with Biden at the top of the ticket and Trump-based hatred motivating much of the electorate?
RD 4: Gerald Brady (D) vs. Jordan Nally(R). No, career hack Brady will not lose to a rare credible R challenger. However, 7 of Gerald’s election districts are in Sarah McBride’s senate district. I will be comparing the side-by-side vote totals in these races. It is at least possible that Brady could retire in 2022, and that his district could be carved up. However, that would leave Wilmington with only three RD’s. Either way, I think this is Brady’s last roundup.
RD 9: Debbie Harrington (D) vs. Kevin Hensley (R). There is something about D’s in this area of the county that I’ve traditionally found confounding. Dating back to R-turned-D Donald Isaacs right up to the present, there has been a lot of ‘cutting’ of D candidates here by D’s. The notorious Dicky Burris, who I was surprised to find is still around, has been one of the serial ‘cutters’. Having said that, Debbie Harrington is a legit candidate and has raised enough money to be competitive. There has been a lot of new development in this district. Not to mention, Harrington and ‘Rae’ Moore are sorta running as a team, and Moore is gonna win. Since the last presidential election in 2016, there has been tremendous growth in the district. In 2016, the November registration figures were 7679 D; 5805 R; and 4752 I’s. The current registration figures are, wait for it, 10,456 D; 7081 R; and 5915 I’s. About 2800 more D’s, 1200 more R’s, and 1200 more I’s since 2016. The D’s can win this district, but it should be competitive all the way to Election Day. I look forward to Liberal Geek’s analysis.
RD 12: Krista Griffith (D) vs. Jeff Cragg (R). Cragg, who has run and lost for office a few times before, allowed his name to be put on the ballot. That’s it.
RD 21: Stephanie Barry (D) vs. Mike Ramone (R). Ramone barely survived two years ago, edging Barry by 409 votes in an off-year election. He had turncoat D’s Karen Peterson and Melanie George actively supporting him. The total registration figures have remained relative stable since then: 441 more D’s, 152 fewer R’s, and 20 more I’s. The big question?: Will enough D’s voters overwhelm Ramone this time? Possibly. By far the most important RD general election race this cycle. It’s gonna be close. $$’s appreciated.
RD 22: LuAnn D’Agostino (D) vs. Mike Smith (R). OK, hear me out. To me, the question isn’t ‘should she win’, that’s up to the voters. The question is ‘can she win’? She is likely the underdog, but she’s got a puncher’s chance. Guillermina Gonszalez lost by 140 votes last time, with ex-cop Renee Taschner, who lost the primary to her, cutting her. Without that, she likely would have won. Thanks, Renee. Two years later, we have 540 more registered D’s and 57 fewer R’s in the district.I know, I know, campaigns matter. Except when they don’t. People are coming out to vote for Biden and to get rid of Trump. Good campaign or not, tell me again why D’Agostino can’t win, even if you think she shouldn’t.
That’s it. I told you that there weren’t many intriguing races this year. If I’ve missed one or more, by all means, call me to task.
Whaddayathink?
Kevin Hensley is dug in like a tic. HOAs are an actual level of government down here and Hensley works them. And as Kevin Caneco found out, there are a lot of registered Ds that vote like Rs.
This one has me a bit worried. I hope the new arrivals don’t feel the need to vote for one Republican to prove that they are even handed.
I have this at 49.3 v 49.5
D’Agostino does indeed have a good chance, based on the reasons you made clear.
The only reason it will be close is Smith’s work with and ties to the HOAs, just like Hensley.
We’re fighting as hard as we can!
COVID-19 really hurt us in that we couldn’t get Luann out to anywhere near as many people as we wanted, since Smith’s biggest advantage is that he comes across as “a nice guy” with a newsletter in a district with very little communication from the previous rep. We also couldn’t get out to the civic associations and HOAs, since most of them cancelled or postponed their mid-year meetings.
We’re focusing this last month on phone calls, mailers, and lit drops, and let me tell you, that stuff isn’t cheap.
If you want to help increase our chances, please donate: https://www.electluann.com/donate
If you think that we don’t deserve to win, hollaback at me at doug@luanndagostino.com; I’m all ears.
I’m in Smith’s district, and he seems to be everywhere in my email and on NextDoor. I don’t think this costs him much. His talent is in how he repeats and projects himself as the source of routine public announcements, which to the uninformed gives the impression of “constituent services.”
It’s called hard work. That dude works hard for the money.
It’s more attention to detail than hard work.
I live in a part of the district that used to be represented by the infamous Roger Roy, who portrayed a transportation/road specialist in the GA.
Yet I don’t recall Roy ever sending me anything like the letter from Smith telling me, months ahead of the work, that we were getting a full traffic light to replace a four-way blinker at the dangerous intersection of Brackenville and Mill Creek roads.
Roy was eager, on the other hand, to let us know he paid to repave our development with his slice of what was then called Suburban Street money. Smith’s letter, IIRC, accurately did not credit the representative, just advertised his weekly meet-and-greet at a local coffee shop.
This is not to be construed as an endorsement for Rep. Smith, who is, after all, a Republican, and will almost certainly vote the party line the vast majority of the time. It’s merely anecdotal evidence of how a Republican can stay afloat in an area that once skewed red but now reliably votes blue in statewide elections.
We have been all over FB and Nextdoor as much as possible. Nextdoor flags anything political or campaign related – you have a lot more freedom when you are already an elected official. He also has access to district email distribution. He has also been allowed to greet people as a rep where candidates or campaigning is not allowed. Incumbent advantages really help during covid. We are still fighting for every vote!
^Like^
Give ’em hell, Luann!
I don’t do Facebook or even know what Nextdoor is.
He reached me via snail mail.
Mike Smith learned from the best at being great at constituent services and hiding your voting record…..Mike Ramone. The two of them are basically in lockstep on how to vote (or skip votes)….
Ramone has won 6 elections by going to HOA meetings and giving out his personal cell #. That’s a low bar. Good to see him losing a gasket because he’s being called out for his awful voting record and hiding that he’s a Republican. Let’s hope the voters of the 21st respond accordingly and get rid of him and his 12 billboard signs.
I was surprised to learn that I “actively supported” Mike Ramone in the last election (thereby making me a “turncoat”). Would you kindly enlighten me as to what, exactly, I did for Ramone’s campaign?
Hi Senator, Thanks for commenting. I can’t speak to what EL Som is referring to, but I know that there was a general sense that you were involved in the completely fucked-up and stupid Stonewall endorsement of Ramone which may have made the difference in the close election.
For what it is worth Mitch Crane has said that you were not involved in the completely fucked-up and stupid Stonewall endorsement of Ramone.
Jason, Mitch Crane is correct. I was not involved in the Stonewall endorsement — or any other aspect of the Ramone campaign.
Puh-leeze. He casts a vote on behalf of equal rights for gays, and you run interference for him and discourage anyone from challenging him, term after term.
You have one of the finest legislative records in Delaware legislative history, but some of us remember this transgression.
Over time Dem elected officials probably begin to feel that have more in common with their Republican Leg Hall colleagues than they have with actual Delawareans.
I mean, I could see how that could happen. I find it revolting, because I find EVERY republican revolting right now, but I get it.
How did I discourage Stephanie Barry from running against him? I’ve never even had a conversation with the woman.
Second, what did I do to help Ramone in the 2018 race or the current race? Name one thing. What have I ever done to “actively support” Ramone in ANY election? In fact, I actually went door-knocking with one of his opponents.
Third, if you think that Ramone’s vote on equal rights was the trigger for my alleged “active support” you are dead wrong. My respect for Mike and Lisa Ramone is personal, not political.
What a joke Karen. Obviously you didn’t help Ramone directly, but everyone knows that for years you discouraged and kept people from running against him. Nice how you parse your words. Yes, you didn’t “actively support” him, but you did provide support and help to him over the years.
The post said that I “actively supported” Ramone. Even you admit that I didn’t.
I guess you all forget when I went door-knocking with one of his opponents (that doesn’t fit your narrative).
Just out of curiosity, how in the world did I keep people from running against him?
I’m sorry Senator. But this line gets me. “My respect for Mike and Lisa Ramone is personal, not political”. You endorsed him! THAT IS POLITICAL! And he ran with it on his mailers! You don’t think that had an impact on the campaign? And he’s doing the exact same thing now with pics of Carney, Hall-Long, etc. on this year’s mailers. That’s his move to look more Democratic despite his abysmal voting record.
I have NEVER endorsed Mike Ramone. That’s a flat out lie.
This is the kind of garbage that makes me glad that I retired.
I stand corrected. While you didn’t officially endorse Ramone, you must have “endorsed” that campaign flyer he posted on Facebook. A simple search of “Mike Ramone Karen Peterson” on Facebook shows the post that says: “Honored to have the support of retired State Senator Karen Peterson!”
So whether you endorsed him or not, he made it clear you did…..
So, was Ramone lying, or did you indeed endorse him?
Floor’s yours, Senator.
Luann, stop making excuses. Nextdoor doesn’t allow elected officials as “partners” like DelDOT or NCCPD are currently. Any elected official, can work hard and stay active on Nextdoor. Really though, who really cares about Nextdoor or Facebook? You need to directly contact voters and get them out to vote on Election Day. This is a winnable race and we’ll see if you’ve put in the needed work Election Day night.
Thanks for the input. We have held nearly a dozen meet and greets and have been knocking doors for the past two months against party recommendations. Covid shut down most of our planned events. No excuses here, just would love to hear other suggestions. We are totally new to this running in a crazy year.
Sounds like you’re interested in volunteering some of that expertise with us!
Please send your contact info and availability to volunteer@electluann.com; it’ll be great to have you help out on the phones and doors, too!
Still waiting on those suggestions???
Huh? Are you seriously revisiting this thread? Luann, here’s a suggestion for you: get off DL and go contact some voters. An open invitation for suggestions on a blog does not inspire confidence in your campaign. Go talk to voters! Get those voters you talked with to come out on Election Day or mail in a ballot. It is a simple gameplan.
That’s exactly what we have been doing but you seemed to have some other brilliant ideas. I’m not surprised that you had nothing to offer. If you do not know what you are talking about, and don’t have any better ideas, maybe you should stop criticizing a fellow Democrat that is working day and night to make a difference for her community and her state. I have put in endless time and money being a first time candidate without inside connections in the middle of a pandemic while you sit back and judge. The harassment that comes from republicans is bad enough, but it’s even worse when it comes from those that should be supporting you. Maybe next time before you are so quick to comment you should consider how much candidates sacrifice to run for office – or better yet, why don’t you step up yourself.
Lashing out in a public forum works better for bloggers and trolls, not so well for elected officials, and even worse for candidates who’ve never held office.
Don’t rise to the bait. That’s what surrogates are for.