In general, the thread for most of these races will be the same: Can an R incumbent overcome both registration and turnout disadvantages with Biden at the top of the ticket and Trump-based hatred motivating much of the electorate?
RD 4: Gerald Brady (D) vs. Jordan Nally(R). No, career hack Brady will not lose to a rare credible R challenger. However, 7 of Gerald’s election districts are in Sarah McBride’s senate district. I will be comparing the side-by-side vote totals in these races. It is at least possible that Brady could retire in 2022, and that his district could be carved up. However, that would leave Wilmington with only three RD’s. Either way, I think this is Brady’s last roundup.
RD 9: Debbie Harrington (D) vs. Kevin Hensley (R). There is something about D’s in this area of the county that I’ve traditionally found confounding. Dating back to R-turned-D Donald Isaacs right up to the present, there has been a lot of ‘cutting’ of D candidates here by D’s. The notorious Dicky Burris, who I was surprised to find is still around, has been one of the serial ‘cutters’. Having said that, Debbie Harrington is a legit candidate and has raised enough money to be competitive. There has been a lot of new development in this district. Not to mention, Harrington and ‘Rae’ Moore are sorta running as a team, and Moore is gonna win. Since the last presidential election in 2016, there has been tremendous growth in the district. In 2016, the November registration figures were 7679 D; 5805 R; and 4752 I’s. The current registration figures are, wait for it, 10,456 D; 7081 R; and 5915 I’s. About 2800 more D’s, 1200 more R’s, and 1200 more I’s since 2016. The D’s can win this district, but it should be competitive all the way to Election Day. I look forward to Liberal Geek’s analysis.
RD 12: Krista Griffith (D) vs. Jeff Cragg (R). Cragg, who has run and lost for office a few times before, allowed his name to be put on the ballot. That’s it.
RD 21: Stephanie Barry (D) vs. Mike Ramone (R). Ramone barely survived two years ago, edging Barry by 409 votes in an off-year election. He had turncoat D’s Karen Peterson and Melanie George actively supporting him. The total registration figures have remained relative stable since then: 441 more D’s, 152 fewer R’s, and 20 more I’s. The big question?: Will enough D’s voters overwhelm Ramone this time? Possibly. By far the most important RD general election race this cycle. It’s gonna be close. $$’s appreciated.
RD 22: LuAnn D’Agostino (D) vs. Mike Smith (R). OK, hear me out. To me, the question isn’t ‘should she win’, that’s up to the voters. The question is ‘can she win’? She is likely the underdog, but she’s got a puncher’s chance. Guillermina Gonszalez lost by 140 votes last time, with ex-cop Renee Taschner, who lost the primary to her, cutting her. Without that, she likely would have won. Thanks, Renee. Two years later, we have 540 more registered D’s and 57 fewer R’s in the district.I know, I know, campaigns matter. Except when they don’t. People are coming out to vote for Biden and to get rid of Trump. Good campaign or not, tell me again why D’Agostino can’t win, even if you think she shouldn’t.
That’s it. I told you that there weren’t many intriguing races this year. If I’ve missed one or more, by all means, call me to task.
Whaddayathink?
