El Somnambulo Predicts Some Of ‘Em For You: State House
Let me start with a race that isn’t competitive, because I’ve got a point to make:
Rep. District 12: Krista Griffith (D-Incumbent) vs. Jeff Cragg (R). Every two years, the Brandywine Hundred R’s open a campaign office in Branmar 3, just off Marsh Road. Over the past few cycles, the number of officials and candidates who have run their campaigns out of this headquarters has dwindled. Last cycle, Greg Lavelle, Debra Hudson and Bob Weiner all bit the electoral dust. Meaning, what once was the Brandywine Hundred HQ is now the Cathy Cloutier HQ. No other R campaign signs are even in the windows there. My point? Oh, yes. Two years ago, Griffith edged out the last Republican State Rep. in Brandywine Hundred. I have dropped some lit in Griffith’s district where it overlaps Kyle Evans Gay’s district. I have literally, not figuratively, seen no sign of a Cragg campaign. Guess his candidacy was too rich even for Chris Kenny’s blood. Cragg probably isn’t even getting a discount on groceries. For people like me who grew up in Brandywine Hundred, this would have been impossible to anticipate. Once Cloutier goes down, Brandywine Hundred will be all ours.
OK, now to the competitive races:
RD 9: Kevin Hensley (R-Incumbent) vs. Debra Harrington (D). When you look at the significant influx of new residents, the strong D edge among the newcomers, and Biden at the top of the ticket, this would seem to be a no-brainer flip. Not to mention, Debbie Harrington is by far the best challenger Hensley has had. However, as Jason pointed out, Hensley is in deep with the Homeowners Associations, meaning working with the residents in new developments. And, there has always been something about that district that skews less in the D’s favor than the registration numbers would suggest. Hensley remains popular, and I think he wins, say 52-48. However, in a blue tsunami, he could well be swept away.
RD 21: Mike Ramone (R-Incumbent) vs. Stephanie Barry (D). It ain’t over until you drive the stake through Dracula’s heart. Ramone’s a scumbag. Always has been. Will stop at nothing to get reelected. Has raised and spent significantly more money than his opponent. The registration figures have been relatively stable, with a net gain of about 310 more D’s since 2018. Ramone won by about 400 votes in 2018. Still, there are over 3000 more registered D’s than R’s, Ramone long ago reached his vote ceiling, and, with Biden and Trump at the top of the respective tickets, and with Barry having had an additional two years to campaign, I think she wins. Call it 53-47.
RD 22: Mike Smith (R-Incumbent) vs. LuAnn D’Agostino (D). Mike Smith deserves to win, he should win, and he probably will win. D’Agostino has raised a pretty paltry sum of money, surprisingly paltry considering all the D elected officials out there. Smith has raised quite a bit, although I have two observations from his finance reports: How is it that Charlie Copeland has contributed $1200 to his campaign? Isn’t the limit $600? Plus, I notice that turncoat Renee Taschner has contributed to Smith. Is she still calling herself a Democrat? But, I digress. If D’Agostino wins, then there will have been a blue tsunami unlike any we’ve seen before. I can’t recall a D candidate coming on our blog to challenge our readers to come up with better ideas for her campaign than she had herself. Smith has been a solid representative, at least by Republican standards, and I think he will withstand this D challenge. Next time might not be so easy. 54-46 Smith.
That’s all I can come up with. Anybody see another race as competitive? I’d be happy to write it up if you do.
Haters gonna hate 😂
I hate missed opportunities. There’s no way she couldn’t have raised a whole lot more money if she had worked at it.
The problem with “the residents in new developments” is the number of “over 55” communities that have sprung up in response to old farts leaving PA and NJ for greener property tax burdens.
Hensley just looks like a state rep to these Fox News consumers.
You say this even though El Som notes there’s a “strong D edge among the newcomers,” but you dismiss “the residents in new developments” for those “over 55” as “old farts” who are sure to be “Fox News consumers.”
Other than some sort of prejudice against older people, what makes you say that?
Because he knows that district very well.
Certainly better than me.
Renee also signed Smith’s latest Dear Neighbor letter that (likely) went to the entire district.
I know she was on the D committee up there. You can’t serve on a D district committee and openly support an R candidate.
She eventually resigned a few months after the 2018 election. She does still show up and lurk at some “important” meetings like this year’s endorsement Zoom call.
IIRC, Taschner ran for the Dem nomination for the seat Smith now holds, when the seat was open in 2018 following Joe Miro’s retirement. Taschner was defeated in the primary by Guillermina Gonzalez, who then lost to Smith. And now she’s contributing to Smith against the 2020 Dem candidate? Sheesh.
Yes. She also supported Smith in the 2018 General.
Her cutting of Gonzalez likely cost her the seat.
I want to take a quick moment to address the comments being made in reference to my support of Mike Smith the republican candidate who as you know is running for re-election in the 22nd District. I have been a registered democrat since I was 20? . I volunteered to be on the 22 RD committee, the State Party Committee, the local New Castle County committee and have not only unsuccessfully run for office but I have done a great deal to support and gather support for candidates long before I ever met Mike Smith and his family. I met Mike before the 2018 election through mutual friends and found him to be a knowledgeable, likable person and we have similar experiences not only raising children in these crazy times but as caregivers and lovers of all things sports. I provided long term, end stage care for both of my parents in my home and Mike did the same for his Nan. These experiences and others have allowed us to form a bit of a friendship regardless of our age differences.
I support Mike because I truly believe he is the best candidate, with a demonstrated history to represent me, my family and my concerns in the district I live in. He makes no bones about being a republican even in these uncertain times and no, we don’t agree on everything. He has been through my community and others countless times over the course of the two years he has held office. He holds regular community meeting, promptly returns emails, phone calls and addresses issues that are important to me, my family and the at large community. He works very hard to make sure that the district is informed of the issues it needs to be aware of. Mike uses every form of communication for outreach. Conversely, I received one piece of door literature from his opponent and that was sometime in the middle of September(?) There was a recent mailer she sent out calling Smith out for “Accepts money from The Republican Party, Republican PACs, Special Interest Groups” Have you looked at her filings? The majority of her money is from PACs and Democratic Causes. Mind you, those groups do have a role to play in elections but please don’t be a hypocrite, call your opponent out and sign some pledge saying you won’t accept certain types of PAC money. Whether you like him or not, at least Smith is open about who he is. His opponent was a registered republican and worked on the campaign of , did opposition research for and supported Mike Ramone when he ran in 2018 in the race with Stephanie Barry. I and others are supposed to support her because she is the D in the race? Were the people who voted for Spadola over Mcguinness also held to this standard? What about the folks supporting DelCollo over Mantzavinos?
As for my leaving the 22nd RD committee after the 2018 election, that much is true. If you speak with Italo, he will tell you that not only had I planned this prior to the election there were others that were thinking about leaving but we stayed so he would have a decent sized committee. I have not attended a meeting since that time but yes, I did log in on a ‘zoom’ meeting within the last year but a I certainly don’t “lurk”. I don’t need too because anyone who knows me knows that is just not not in my wiring. I would bet that I have been a democrat, actively engaged and a member of a committee long before “Anonymous” but then again he/she doesn’t have the backbone to identify him/her self so I guess we just have to take his/her word. When I need information on democratic activities I know were I can get the information.
I truly wish politics was not like this. It makes enemies out of neighbors and it brings the ugly out of otherwise reasonable people. Please have a great day, wear your masks and VOTE for whomever you want to support but just VOTE!
Renee Taschner
After losing to Gigi Gonzalez, did you cut her b/c you thought Mike was the best candidate? I think that brought the ‘ugly’ out in you. Didn’t win, screw your opponent.
El Somnambulo,
As you may (or not) be aware, I have run for office 3 times. In 2 of the 3 races I called my opponents on election night to congratulate and offer to help in any way I could. When I ran for County Council and lost to Janet Kilpatrick in the general, I called her election night but I did nothing other than wish her good luck. In the County Council President’s race against Chris Bullock, I called him the night of the Primary to congratulate him. To this day, that race was the most difficult to lose but my opponents and I always stuck to the issues and when Chris spoke about running for a second term or perhaps County Executive, I offered to help in whatever capacity he needed and pledged to write a check. I have donated and will continue to donate to Democratic candidates and any other candidate or organization that I can relate to just as many of you do. I do not wish to re-hash the 2018 election, suffice it to say something happened or was said that went into my decision not to call to my opponent. It was a very difficult decision as it was not something I was accustomed to doing. She reached out to me we met after the election for coffee and had a candid discussion. I don’t know that she and I will ever agree but I know that I am over it and I wish her well in whatever she does in the future. I have never been a “didn’t win, screw your opponent” type of person.
Thanks for checking in, Renee. I’m being sincere for once.
Renee – we live in the same community and you have done everything possible to avoid my door knocks, phone calls, and messages. You have accused me of destroying Mike Smith’s signs on social media and personally attacked me while refusing to ever get to know me. And, you did mysteriously decide to show up at the RD22 meeting for my endorsement. You are the one making politics confrontational.
I did call out Mike Smith for accepting Republican and PAC money because he claims on his mailers to be an Independent, trying to disassociate himself from his republican party. I am not trying to say that I’m not a democrat so accepting party money is not hypocritical.
Lastly, I am pretty sure that I know who anonymous is and if I’m correct, that person has made huge commitments to the Dem party and has been unwavering in their support, unlike others.
The only thing that we agree on is that people need to vote.
Smith’s day job is as a marketing/communications guy, and he has a pro-level social media game. Anyone who wants to defeat him should study what he does. His main tactic is to repeat routine government information and distribute it to his mailing list with his name on it, implicitly taking credit. It gives the superficial appearance of “constituent services,” and I agree he works very hard at it. And he has
operativessupporters posting on sites like NextDoor, inserting Smith’s name into many discussions of neighborhood issues. A challenger could do the same thing.….Luann? Are you reading? Puck laid it all out for you. The gameplan is not complicated.
Sorry C, I was too busy at Meet and Greets, door knocking and phone calls to get back to you. Clearly you do not understand sarcasm so I’ll just be straight with you. I came into this as an active community member and successful business person – I have zero background in politics or campaigning. I was willing to step up in an RD that has more than had it’s share of issues. Just as we were putting our campaign together, covid hit and shut everything down. It has been me and my campaign manager, both newbies, with little to no help from any Dems until the last month. We have been buried in a year of high profile races across the state, fighting for money and volunteers. I am making no excuses but I will make no apologies either. We were handed a voter registration list and told that there were some online classes and left to figure it out. Let’s see you run under the same circumstances – a total newcomer, no events to hold or attend for networking due to covid, an RD with little support, no email lists, all fundraising events cancelled due to covid, a party discouraging door knocking, and a pandemic where people are out of work and afraid for their health. Do something to help or get out of the way – or go support a Republican like former committee member Renee Taschner.
Just so you know, any future Dem candidates won’t have to face this in the future. We are documenting everything that we have learned so that new candidates will get the support they need in a single welcome packet when they file in future years. We are doing this because we actually want Dems to win – imagine that.
For the record, I’m a constituent of Rep. Smith and I’ve never found his newsletters to “implicitly take credit.” I find them informative and useful, maybe the best communication about local impacts on state issues that I’ve ever received from any elected official. I suspect he’ll be hard to beat in any year, until he tries for higher office.
Has Smith renounced trump? That’s the only information I would need to know about him.
He has privately to people but will not formally do so. He has been asked why he will not say it on social media or his website and he will not answer.
Mike Ramone does the same thing with his “hostage videos” where he reads all the things the Governor has done regarding COVID and then takes credit for the low # of infections and deaths in the 21st RD…..He’s gotta go.
As to the former committee person. I had an apple out of her Barrel in the ’12 cycle. She was rude, nasty and vicious and those were her good qualities. Her status as a 3 time loser is well earned. That said she probably will help sink Luann. She should be so proud :(!
Don’t count us out yet, we are still fighting. I will be back in 2022 regardless of the outcome.