Let me start with a race that isn’t competitive, because I’ve got a point to make:
Rep. District 12: Krista Griffith (D-Incumbent) vs. Jeff Cragg (R). Every two years, the Brandywine Hundred R’s open a campaign office in Branmar 3, just off Marsh Road. Over the past few cycles, the number of officials and candidates who have run their campaigns out of this headquarters has dwindled. Last cycle, Greg Lavelle, Debra Hudson and Bob Weiner all bit the electoral dust. Meaning, what once was the Brandywine Hundred HQ is now the Cathy Cloutier HQ. No other R campaign signs are even in the windows there. My point? Oh, yes. Two years ago, Griffith edged out the last Republican State Rep. in Brandywine Hundred. I have dropped some lit in Griffith’s district where it overlaps Kyle Evans Gay’s district. I have literally, not figuratively, seen no sign of a Cragg campaign. Guess his candidacy was too rich even for Chris Kenny’s blood. Cragg probably isn’t even getting a discount on groceries. For people like me who grew up in Brandywine Hundred, this would have been impossible to anticipate. Once Cloutier goes down, Brandywine Hundred will be all ours.
OK, now to the competitive races:
RD 9: Kevin Hensley (R-Incumbent) vs. Debra Harrington (D). When you look at the significant influx of new residents, the strong D edge among the newcomers, and Biden at the top of the ticket, this would seem to be a no-brainer flip. Not to mention, Debbie Harrington is by far the best challenger Hensley has had. However, as Jason pointed out, Hensley is in deep with the Homeowners Associations, meaning working with the residents in new developments. And, there has always been something about that district that skews less in the D’s favor than the registration numbers would suggest. Hensley remains popular, and I think he wins, say 52-48. However, in a blue tsunami, he could well be swept away.
RD 21: Mike Ramone (R-Incumbent) vs. Stephanie Barry (D). It ain’t over until you drive the stake through Dracula’s heart. Ramone’s a scumbag. Always has been. Will stop at nothing to get reelected. Has raised and spent significantly more money than his opponent. The registration figures have been relatively stable, with a net gain of about 310 more D’s since 2018. Ramone won by about 400 votes in 2018. Still, there are over 3000 more registered D’s than R’s, Ramone long ago reached his vote ceiling, and, with Biden and Trump at the top of the respective tickets, and with Barry having had an additional two years to campaign, I think she wins. Call it 53-47.
RD 22: Mike Smith (R-Incumbent) vs. LuAnn D’Agostino (D). Mike Smith deserves to win, he should win, and he probably will win. D’Agostino has raised a pretty paltry sum of money, surprisingly paltry considering all the D elected officials out there. Smith has raised quite a bit, although I have two observations from his finance reports: How is it that Charlie Copeland has contributed $1200 to his campaign? Isn’t the limit $600? Plus, I notice that turncoat Renee Taschner has contributed to Smith. Is she still calling herself a Democrat? But, I digress. If D’Agostino wins, then there will have been a blue tsunami unlike any we’ve seen before. I can’t recall a D candidate coming on our blog to challenge our readers to come up with better ideas for her campaign than she had herself. Smith has been a solid representative, at least by Republican standards, and I think he will withstand this D challenge. Next time might not be so easy. 54-46 Smith.
That’s all I can come up with. Anybody see another race as competitive? I’d be happy to write it up if you do.