Ernie Lopez Merely Bowed To The Inevitable
His district was, and is, going Blue in ’22.
To steal a line from Baseball Prospectus, my fantasy baseball Bible: “Warning: Gory mathematical details ahead!”
Even if Senate District 6 retained the exact same boundaries it has now (which it won’t), the trend was not Kathy’s Favorite Volunteer With Privileges’ Friend.
Here are the registration figures and percentages back in November of 2012, the first year with the current boundaries:
13,727 D 40%
12,597 R 36.7%
7,982 I 23.3%.
In 2012, Lopez defeated (how quickly we forget) Glen Urquhart by a 55-45% margin in the R primary. He then defeated Andrew Staton in a very expensive race, 56-43%.
In 2014, Lopez defeated Claire Snyder-Hall by a 63-37% margin.
In 2018, perhaps due to his Canoodling With Kathy, he barely edged out David Baker, 53-47%.
In 2022, not only was his district likely to be even less hospitable, he was almost certainly facing a primary from some RWNJ, because that’s how Sussex Rethugs roll.
Even before the redrawing of the lines, however, just take a look at the current registration figures:
20,588 D 40.2%
17,581 R 34.3%
12,829 I 25.5%
While the D percentage has remained roughly the same, there has been a pretty significant decline in the R %, and an increase in the % of unaffiliated voters.
Now just take a look at the change in the number of registered voters in the district over the past nine years:
2012: 34,306
2021: 51,268
That’s over a 49% increase in the number of registered voters in SD 6 over the past ten years. Granted, the increased percentage of voters does not directly coincide with the increase in population, but it’s a solid predictor. While I haven’t worked the numbers for all the other districts, I daresay that no other Senate district in Delaware has experienced that kind of growth, or anything close to it. (This also means that, were Popgun Pete so inclined, he could likely draw another D House district in coastal Sussex.)
OK, let’s go to the district map:
You can access the SD 6 figures by RD/ED here.
I’ve also broken down the results of the contest between Baker and Lopez, and I’ll insert the pertinent information.
Here’s what we know: We’re gonna have to excise a significant portion of this district. We can do it to benefit a generic Democrat and/or to benefit a progressive Democrat (I’m not sure that Baker fits the bill of a progressive, but there’s a strong progressive constituency in the district).
Anyway, going by the map, if you excise the following from the northwestern portion of the district, you on balance strengthen the D edge: RD 20, ED’s 1, 2, and 3; and RD 36, ED’s 10 and 11. Plus, you’re not gerrymandering the district, you’re making it more compact. Based on the 2018 totals in these ED’s, Baker got 2478 votes in these ED’s, and Lopez got 3159. I’d also love to get rid of RD 20, ED 4 as well, but I don’t know how the numbers will play out. Of course, there’s nothing magic about the shape of an ED. You can excise part of it. Each Senate and House District must be within plus or minus 5% of the average population based on the statewide census totals.
Making matters even worse for the R’s, a so-called ‘moderate’ like Lopez is likely the only type of R who could win in this district. Even if such a ‘moderate’ emerges, (a) they will not have the benefit of incumbency; and (b) they are almost certain to face a lunatic fringe R in the primary, who would likely be the favorite.
Yes, I could see a primary battle between a moderate and progressive D doing some damage. However, when faced with a RWNJ opponent in what is generally at worst a centrist district, I think everybody comes together.
Clip ‘n save: This district will elect a Democrat to the State Senate in 2022.
Excellent analysis.
It is totally logical that the outer EDs in the 20th and 36th will no longer be in the 6th Senate District. That gives a moderate-progressive Democrat the edge over a likely conservative Republican. This District as currently constituted went for every Democrat on the ballot in 2020 (as did the 20th RD).
This race is extremely important to the Democratic Party. The Dems currently hold a super-majority (14-7) in the Senate. It is most likely that New Castle County will lose a seat and that seat will move to Sussex. There are no Republican senators in New Castle County. In order to keep their super-majority, the Democrats must pick up a seat in Kent or Sussex. The 6th is the only district in those two counties, currently represented by a Republican, with a Democratic plurality and a history of voting for statewide Democrats.
I’ve argued that it is not necessary for NCC to lose a seat this time around. There has been lots of growth in southern NCC, and I think it will be reflected in the numbers for Stephanie Hansen, Nicole Poore, Bryan Townsend, and also in Bruce Ennis’ district.
I think that growth in Kent County will be static. The registration figures in Dave Lawson’s district have hardly budged. Get rid of a Kent County district, and perhaps set up a primary from among Lawson, Bonini and Shupe.
Southern NCCo is, for political purposes, not a good target. The population growth came in large part from white flight — the sort of people who fled Wilmington suburbs for Newark in the ’70s, only to have the federal courts bust up their white enclave. So they moved it south.
Forget it, Jake, it’s Middletown town.
My point is that in order to retain all the NCC senatorial districts, you’re gonna have to move the lines around some. In this case, to protect (or provide) proper representation for Wilmington and to make sure that northern NCC districts reach their population threshholds.
I’m not advocating creating a new district in the southern part of the County.
Shupe is a state representative (36th District). I assume you meant Wilson Putting Wilson, Bonini and Lawson together would be genius.
Another consideration is the 14th. It is likely Bruce Ennis will retire.
Yep. Already had Shupe in the Senate.
Marydel to Camden to Lincoln would have to create a long, very triangular district that might not hold water. Far easier to stick Lawson and Bonini together than to shoehorn Wilson in.
If my brain’s working right, Shupe was supposed to be in the Senate as Gary Simpson’s heir, thanks to Dave Burris, but Wilson said “F that” to the Milford Mafia and broke the news of Simpson retiring in his own campaign announcement.
That is exactly what happened.
Lawson and Bonini in the same district? I could live with that…
Truth!
After 2012, average Delaware Senate district represented almost 43,000 residents. Any idea on what the average will be for 2022? Guessing we need to wait for the census data to be released?
Using the estimated population of 994,735, which will be pretty close to the final number, an equal division of the population would give you 47,368 per Senate district. Under the +/- 5% rule, it could be 2,368 people more or less than that figure.
Wow. When you realize that the 6th has over 51,000 REGISTERED VOTERS as opposed to people, I might have been conservative in making cuts…
Hypothetical question: If Park City Kathy is blocked from higher office as a Democrat, would she switch parties?
No. Lauren Witzke won’t allow anyone to challenge her for the ‘Hotness’ crown.
I put the odds at 50-50 that Witzke will be in prison by 2024.
I wonder if I could win the Lopez seat?
Greetings from lower NCC, Kent county is literally across the street. The white flight down here is from New York and New Jersey fleeing the insane taxes of those states, neither do I blame them.
There’s a lot of that, too. According to Appo School District, though, about 33% more people moved in from elsewhere in the state than from all out-of-state sources.
Hi Lurkers,
Your continuing interest in this post & “Lopez is a Coward’ post make me think that some other shoe is fixing to drop.