Fun With Maps

False advertising–of a sort.  Consider this a redistricting hot-stove league thread.

Timely because the General Assembly will hold a Redistricting For Dummies session tonight.  Since I fit that profile, I plan to attend the virtual meeting.  You can, too. Right here.

With that out of the way, let’s look at what might ultimately happen during redistricting.

State Senate:  Contrary to speculation on the board (cough*Mitch Crane*cough), there is no way, no way, that New Castle County will lose a Senate seat.  Why? (a) Because every single Senate seat in the county is held by a Democrat; (b) there is more than enough population in NCC to retain all the seats; and (c) even if there wasn’t enough population, you could simply make up the difference by moving the three ED’s that Sen. Ennis has in New Castle County into NCC senate districts.  But that’s not necessary (although if Bruce doesn’t run, I wouldn’t be surprised if these ED’s move into NCC anyway).

President Pro-Tem Dave Sokola is on record as saying that he prefers that districts not cross county lines.  Meaning, SD 14 could conceivably be entirely in Kent County should Ennis retire.

One cautionary note with redistricting is that incumbents generally believe that the less their district is adjusted, the better. Because the fewer new constituents they attract, the less vulnerable they are to primaries. However, it is inevitable that some districts will be significantly impacted.  Including at least one Wilmington-based district (needs more population) and one lower-tier county district (needs to shed population).  Knowing the composition of leadership, and knowing who’s in the dog house, here’s what I could see happening:

SD 2-Sen. Darius Brown’s district can, and should, extend out into the area south of Wilmington.  Since he threw the citizens of Minquadale under the bus when it came to the landfill, he deserves the opportunity to try to explain to them, as their new senator, why he did so.  The lines can be easily drawn so that this comfortably remains a minority-majority district.  But Brown would almost certainly face a primary challenger who is more progressive, and his district definitely needs more population.  I had initially thought of having Marie Pinkney’s district extended up through Southbridge and the east side, but she lives closer to the southern boundary of her district, so that doesn’t work.  But I betcha that some of her volunteers who live in the portion of the district that Brown might annex would be up to the task. Hint hint.

SD 12-Sen. Nicole Poore was hastily banished from leadership following the 2020 election. On merit.  To say that she is not trusted by her caucus is an understatement.  She absolutely must retain all of Delaware City so that she can be held accountable for selling out the residents there. There’s no reason to do her any favors, and I see little incentive for leadership to work with her.  The district is overwhelmingly D, so giving her a neutral district heightens the possibility of a primary.  The district needs to shed population so, to the extent that she loses whatever strongholds she might have, the better.

Kent And Sussex-You can make Bruce Ennis’ district at least as Democratic, if not more, simply by adding the Kent County ED’s immediately on the western side of his district, almost all of which were carried by Jaci Hugg in her race against Dave Lawson. Easy fix. The district remains D, with or without Ennis.  I lied about the maps. You can see what I mean right here.  I suppose the D’s could try to put Bonini and Lawson together, and excise an R SD to Sussex.  That’s something to watch.  In Sussex, the key is to make Lopez’ SD 6 azure blue, and they’ll be able to accomplish that.  So, optimally, they get  rid of an R SD in Kent, create a new R SD in Sussex, and flip what was an R seat in Sussex to D. If Sen. Pettyjohn is indeed retiring, as has been rumored, the Senate will have plenty of flexibility in drawing a new district. Let me tell you this: Dave Sokola is much more political savvy than you can imagine.  So is this Senate caucus.  You can’t do any better than Dick Carter (is this his 5th redistricting?) and Jesse Chadderdon drawing the lines. I can’t wait to see the Senate maps.

House Of Representatives:  I think there will be some cross-currents here.  The Kop Kabal is not into caucus building, they’re into retaining power. There may, may, be one exception: If Pete can create another D district adjacent to his in Sussex County, it likely would be to his advantage to do so since the newly-elected D would literally owe his seat to Pete.  In other words, retaining power and caucus building  There’s no doubt that the leadership is hell-bent on sending another seat downstate. It will almost certainly be RD 4, being vacated by the disgraced Gerald Brady.  Which makes sense, as there are eight, count ’em, eight RD’s with borders in common with RD 4. Check out the map.  The House also has a safety valve in that David Bentz is retiring.  While I expect RD 18 to remain, the district map does not have to include his residence.

Other retirements could certainly impact the House maps.  Word on the street is that Ol’ Lumpy wants to retire (in truth, he already has), but that Pete needs his Useful Idiot to keep the Joint Finance Committee under his thumb and trigger finger. You can bet that Lumpy and Bill Bush will be the beneficiaries of Pete’s largesse.  I think the problem for the Kop Kabal is that they can’t protect every miscreant who supported them for leadership. Not even most of them.  But they also can’t screw those who oppose them.  Unless, unless Pete ‘n Val troll for Rethug votes to overcome D defections.  I think that’d be the end of the Kop Kabal.

The demise of the Kop Kabal is coming.  The only question is whether the House leadership succeeds in forestalling its demise, or whether it bows to the inevitable.  Good times.  Hopefully with good candidates to send ’em packing.