Who Is Retiring? Paul Baumbach Or Mike Ramone?

If what DD wrote over at Blue Delaware is accurate–that Mike Ramone has been drawn into the 23rd District, currently represented by Baumbach, then the maps tell me that one of the two is retiring.

Otherwise, you’ve taken Ramone out of the 21st District, and placed him in the same district as Baumbach.  So, yes, that paves the way for Stephanie Barry, or another D, to win the newly-vacant 21st RD.

But, even by the dickish standards employed by the Kop Kabal, the move makes little sense–unless one of the two has let leadership know that they”re retiring.  First, this would make what otherwise would be a neat and tidy group effort into a possible firestorm, with both R’s and quite a few D’s objecting to the move.  That’s not the face that leadership wishes to project to the public.  Second, one general policy of redistricting is, if at all possible, to ensure that each incumbent has a district in which to run.  I mean, as the sole incumbent.  Third, if the Kop Kabal had really wanted to stick it to Ramone, they would have just drawn him into Michael Smith’s district.

Leading me to the conclusion that either Baumbach or Ramone (but not both) is retiring.

The Case For Baumbach Retiring:

1.  Even though leadership has screwed Baumbach for years, I can’t imagine the rest of the D caucus going along with such a move. Same holds true for the R’s.  Hey, ya gotta pass the bill.  If Baumbach retires, Ramone at least has a district to run in. He can’t really bitch.

2. Leadership has screwed Baumbach for years.  One of the Caucus’ brightest members, he’s been kept from chairing any committee of substance. That’s b/c he dared to challenge their leadership positions.  Hey, maybe he waits for a Senate seat to open up…

3. He has a relatively small business, and maybe he needs to devote more time to it.

4. Assuming that Baumbach has told his Caucus he’s retiring, the maps make total sense.  Ramone has a district. But, he’s far less likely to win it than his previous district, and the 21st becomes a ripe D pick-up opportunity.

The Case For Ramone Retiring:

1. He is no longer the incumbent in the district he has represented. If he weren’t one of the General Assembly’s most devious members, that would be the obvious conclusion.  However…

2. …just to be safe, the House would draw him out of his previous district. You know, in case he goes back on his word.

3. Not sure how his businesses have fared during COVID.  There likely ain’t enough penny stocks to keep him in clover.  And I suspect swinger party bookings are down at his pool.

My (Ill-)Informed Conclusion: Baumbach is retiring.  Only because that scenario takes the path of least resistance.  House D leadership has also pushed hard for Stephanie Barry.  Meaning the House had two options to screw Ramone: Put him in with Smith, or put him in a different district.  The fact that they put him in Baumbach’s district strongly suggests to me that Baumbach is retiring, Ramone is about to be electorally retired, and the 21st is about to flip from R to D.

But, hey, YMMV.  What do you think?  Of course, Paul, who has commented here in the past, could set us straight.  I’ve always been a fan, and his retirement would be a loss to progressives like me.