Carney is the lamest of lame ducks. Who will be the next Governor of Delaware? Part 2
Last time we looked at the Governors of yore and I’m glad I started there because we can dispense with who we’d like to be Governor and discuss who will probably be the 75th Gov of Smellaware. There is no need for a drum roll. Based on the fact that 60% of recent Govs had previously served as Lt Gov and the probability matrix that fact establishes, the next Governor is going to be Matt Denn. …or Bethany Hall-Long.
But wait… 60% isn’t destiny, you might say. There is a 40% chance that the next Gov might NOT have counted the days while pacing around the 10×10 confines of the Lt Gov’s cell.. I mean office. So, ok let’s see who could be a member of the lucky 40%.
Continuing on with the theme of probabilities 100% of recent Governors have served in some statewide office. So Matt Meyer, NC County Executive, is out of the running. So is my pick, Sarah McBride. More to the point, these people are in the running: Chip Flowers, Park City Kathy, Colleen C. Davis, Lisa Blunt Rochester, and who am I forgetting?
So let’s take Chip and Kathy out of consideration based on Chip not being a Delawarean, and Kathy being eventually convicted. US Rep to Gov has a track record, so LBR is in the running. But LBR knows full well that she only needs to sit tight and Carper’s Lifetime sinecure in the US Senate will become LBR’s lifetime sinecure in the US Senate. That’s too big of a prize to screw around with, so I don’t think she is terrible interested. And speaking of not terrible interested Colleen C. Davis is invisible. I don’t know how she is making out as Treasurer, but as far as staYing out of the headlines is concerned, Davis needs to win an award for being the anti-McGuiness.
That brings us back to BHL, Matt Denn and what the heck…I’ll say Matt Meyer (using the Chris Coons precedent of being able to fluke-a-juke an even bigger jump from New Castle County Executive to the US Senate).
Now let’s let Denn (sadly) off the hook. So it is the odds on favorite, BHL vs the longest of long shots, Meyer. I’d vote for Meyer in that contest, but Hall-Long is very well liked.
In closing, Sarah McBride for Lt Gov!
NO! I take your point about Lt. Governors often becoming governors.
But Sarah McBride is more useful in VIRTUALLY ANY ROLE OTHER THAN LT. GOV.
Not to mention, if she ran for Governor (I don’t think she will), she’d clear the field.
What about Kathy Jennings? And Trinidad Navarro?
“who am I forgetting?” Thanks
To address Jennings directly I’ll say that the probability of her making the jump from AG to Gov are similar to Meyer.
Not to get too conspiracy theory, but the Lt Gov office represents a vetting by a shadow electorate of shot callers. The people who never show up on any list of “influential Delawareans” but who have enormous influence. Jennings simply hasn’t been vetted by that group.
As far as Navaro is concerned, does anyone seriously think he has designs on higher offices? If so I’d include him in part 3 of this series, but for right now, it is going to be “Beyond Probabilities – Who Has a Corps of Voters at the Ready?” It will be looking at BHL, Jennings, Meyer, and a wildcard.
Don’t shoot the messenger, but word is the sniveling Delaware Way sycophant Chris Coons is pouting about not being in the President’s Cabinet and fed up with scrutiny and, well, trying and is considering a run for Governor so he can simply check yes or no on what other Democrats legislate. Now, the part about giving up his Senate seat isn’t so bad, but…
I think he clears the field of folks that aren’t distinguishable enough. Sarah McBride could beat him, unless the Senate seat or Rep seat become open and are too attractive (and winnable, depending on LBR). Someone else like Trinidad, who could engage a large Latinx or Hispanic vote, could be an option. Even bringing Coby or Debbie out of the Party leadership to perhaps not win, but run may become a necessary tactic to push candidates toward progressive policy commitments or otherwise divert votes to the other not-great-but-not-Coons options….
Let me be the first to call bullshit. There is no elected office as valuable, which also requires so NO ACTUAL WORK, as the US Senate. There is no way in hell he gives up that sinecure.
Also…scrutiny ? What fucking scrutiny ?
There is no elected office as valuable, which also requires so NO ACTUAL WORK, as the US Senate.
“I’ve got this thing and it’s f—— golden”
Plus, Coons would never give up the daily companionship of his Republican friends. He is looking forward to being in a Republican Senate, where he will never have to make a difficult vote. He can even rack up a progressive record by voting against rightwing legislation that he knows will pass anyway.
And how many times does a Delaware Governor get invited to be on ‘Morning Joe’ ? Just no fucking way.