Turnout’s gonna be real low. Only one statewide race as the R AG race no longer is a race. RWNJ Julianne Murray has the field all to herself. Guess the other guy never bothered to file.
State Auditor (D): I’m setting Lydia York‘s over/under vs. KMG at 63%. Democrats of the non-Pete variety are motivated to excise this boil from the butt of the body politic.
Senate District 6 (D). We haven’t given Russ Huxtable enough love. By ‘we’, I mean ‘I’. I’ve been so focused on the House races because of my push to help get rid of the Kop Kabal that I haven’t praised this very promising candidate. He has a legit chance to win. He’s running against Jack Bucchioni, who is more of a character than a candidate. Should Huxtable win the primary, he will run against Kop Kabalist Steve Smyk who, according to our Sussex spies, is not that good a fit for this district. George Howard Bunting, one of my favorite legislators ever, used to represent a good portion of this district. Russ Huxtable is worthy of following in his footsteps. If you can afford to do so, send him some $$’s. He’d be a great addition to the Senate D Caucus.
Senate District 14 (D). I still have no idea who will win this primary. The good news is that, after perusing the various candidates’ sites, they all seem like worthy successors. My wife’s fave is Kevin Musto as she’s known him for years for his work in pharmacy. Gotta say, I wonder about an ‘educator’ who has this on the front page of his site, as ‘Tater’ Hill-Shaner does:
Throughout my years as a leader in education, I am aimed to empower my students and elevate their voices.
Indeed you ‘am’.
Senate District 16 (R). My early thought is that Colin Bonini finishes third out of three. Why? Because a body at rest tends to stay at rest. Especially his. I’m going with the pistol-packing mama Kim Petters to defeat the two white guys. Buckson finishes second. Keep in mind, though, we’re not at the final prediction stage yet.
Rep. District 1 (D). Shane Darby has publicly said that she will support a challenge to the Kop Kabal. Nnamdi Chukwuocha has enabled them. He has also opposed too many progressive initiatives. He’s not a bad guy. After all, he knocked out Charles Potter. But, even at best, he’s been a passive supporter of the current leadership team. Darby got in late, largely b/c Nnamdi revealed his true priorities right at the end of session with the eminent domain bill. However, she has name recognition from her City Council run and her time on Council. She’s my early-line favorite.
Rep. District 2 (D). Here’s a little secret for you: Stephanie Bolden has no political operation and no constituency. Well, not exactly true. Her constituency consists solely of those whose campaign bucks could keep her in power. Buccini/Pollin, maybe Bobby Byrd. That’s it. When I worked for the Senate, Bolden challenged Sen. Bob Marshall. I honestly was shocked at her inability to turn out even a representative sample of voters in what should have been her strong ED’s. I was running the phone bank that day. We got our first set of numbers from the polling places somewhere around 10:30 am. They were stunning. I knew that we could have shut down the phone bank then and there. Personal to James Taylor: If you get your butt in gear and run a decent campaign, not only can you win, you will win. It’s up to you.
Rep. District 4 (R). This is the newly-transplanted-to-Suxco district that was previously a Wilmington-area district ‘represented’ by Gerald Brady and, briefly, by Bud Freel. Of the two R’s, Jeff Hilovsky has better social media presence than Bradley Layfield. Which is all I know about this race. Sussex spies? Do yer stuff. D Keegan Worley seems like a pretty strong challenger in the general, although he’s relatively new to the district. Should be a competitive race.
Rep. District 6 (D). I admit I’ve got a dawg in this fight as I’ve been volunteering for Becca Cotto‘s campaign. Precisely the kind of grassroots campaign that I love. This session, Deb Heffernan sold her soul to the big-money special interests to try to stay in office. Buried really good progressive environmental bills in her committee in exchange for campaign cash from Bobby Byrd’s high-rolling pro-pollution clients. (She was already the beneficiary of Buccini/Pollin bucks.) Sold out her constituents in Edgemoor in doing so. She has literally, not figuratively, been invisible on the campaign trail. I feel optimistic that this seat will flip, bad news for the Kop Kabal. Good news for the people who live in the 6th.
Rep. District 13 (D). I met DeShanna Neal for the first time at the Working Families Party Meet The Candidates Forum. She’s soft-spoken, but has a powerful message. Extremely thoughtful person. I was very impressed. She’s running against the Kop Kabal’s very own Larry Mitchell who, by most accounts, has completely lost touch with his district. While I’m sure the Thin Blue Line will rally around him, DeShanna’s message and strong grassroots campaign has a great chance to triumph. Bad news for the Kop Kabal. BTW, I really like one approach that the team has taken here: After canvassing, they go to a fun event in the district. Great way to keep volunteers involved.
Rep. District 18 (D). I think Martin Willis knows he can’t defeat Sophie Phillips here. So, he’s challenged her candidacy with the Department of Elections. Phillips’ presentation at the WFP Forum was pitch-perfect. What a great successor to David Bentz she’d be. I don’t think that even Speaker Pete can get her thrown off the ballot. He’s likely leaving that to Our PAL Val. Don’t think it will work.
Rep. District 25 (D). I doubt that this will be much of a contest. John Kowalko has endorsed Cyndie Romer, and she, too, impressed at the WFP Forum. Ed Klima has a long career as a first responder and has admirable credentials. But I think they’re better suited for perhaps a run for County Council.
Rep. District 26 (D). Madinah Wilson-Anton is facing an RWNJ-turned-D. Sore loser John Viola has maxed out to Kelly Williams Maresca. I can’t see her being competitive in a two-way primary. Madinah was well on her way to a decisive victory over Viola two years ago before a late filing from another Black candidate threatened her win. She still prevailed, and I think she will win much more handily this year. I can’t wait to see if any Kop Kabal $$’s find their way into Maresca’s campaign coffers.
Rep. District 27 (D). Michael Herzfeld is from Kop Kabal Central Casting. Betcha he’s best buds with Franklin Cooke. With some Carney stench emanating from him as well. Here’s the thing, though. Eric Morrison didn’t just defeat an incumbent D last time, he obliterated him. Both he and Madinah, who were great candidates to begin with, benefited from the training and organizational assistance they got from the burgeoning progressive grassroots. That stuff doesn’t go away overnight.
Rep. District 32 (D). Well, let’s see–three Black candidates, one white candidate. Al, Wilmington math? Kerri Evelyn Harris has her hands full. While I hear that LaVaughn McCutchen is a non-factor, Rev. Lamont Pierce is campaigning hard. Corporadem Phil McGinnis could win under these circumstances. That would be a real lost opportunity. Anybody with an on-the-ground view of this race?
Rep. District 36 (R). Not sure why Patrick Smith is primarying incumbent Bryan Shupe. Looking at his website, he doesn’t seem that different from Shupe. Perhaps this is a residual effect of the Wilsons’ end run last time? I admit I don’t understand Lower Slower politics. But, then, I don’t understand the effects of in-breeding either. I’m guessing: The two are, um, inter-related?
OK, pipples, where am I totally off-base? Floor’s yours.