My Early Random Thoughts On Delaware’s Primaries
Turnout’s gonna be real low. Only one statewide race as the R AG race no longer is a race. RWNJ Julianne Murray has the field all to herself. Guess the other guy never bothered to file.
State Auditor (D): I’m setting Lydia York‘s over/under vs. KMG at 63%. Democrats of the non-Pete variety are motivated to excise this boil from the butt of the body politic.
Senate District 6 (D). We haven’t given Russ Huxtable enough love. By ‘we’, I mean ‘I’. I’ve been so focused on the House races because of my push to help get rid of the Kop Kabal that I haven’t praised this very promising candidate. He has a legit chance to win. He’s running against Jack Bucchioni, who is more of a character than a candidate. Should Huxtable win the primary, he will run against Kop Kabalist Steve Smyk who, according to our Sussex spies, is not that good a fit for this district. George Howard Bunting, one of my favorite legislators ever, used to represent a good portion of this district. Russ Huxtable is worthy of following in his footsteps. If you can afford to do so, send him some $$’s. He’d be a great addition to the Senate D Caucus.
Senate District 14 (D). I still have no idea who will win this primary. The good news is that, after perusing the various candidates’ sites, they all seem like worthy successors. My wife’s fave is Kevin Musto as she’s known him for years for his work in pharmacy. Gotta say, I wonder about an ‘educator’ who has this on the front page of his site, as ‘Tater’ Hill-Shaner does:
Throughout my years as a leader in education, I am aimed to empower my students and elevate their voices.
Indeed you ‘am’.
Senate District 16 (R). My early thought is that Colin Bonini finishes third out of three. Why? Because a body at rest tends to stay at rest. Especially his. I’m going with the pistol-packing mama Kim Petters to defeat the two white guys. Buckson finishes second. Keep in mind, though, we’re not at the final prediction stage yet.
Rep. District 1 (D). Shane Darby has publicly said that she will support a challenge to the Kop Kabal. Nnamdi Chukwuocha has enabled them. He has also opposed too many progressive initiatives. He’s not a bad guy. After all, he knocked out Charles Potter. But, even at best, he’s been a passive supporter of the current leadership team. Darby got in late, largely b/c Nnamdi revealed his true priorities right at the end of session with the eminent domain bill. However, she has name recognition from her City Council run and her time on Council. She’s my early-line favorite.
Rep. District 2 (D). Here’s a little secret for you: Stephanie Bolden has no political operation and no constituency. Well, not exactly true. Her constituency consists solely of those whose campaign bucks could keep her in power. Buccini/Pollin, maybe Bobby Byrd. That’s it. When I worked for the Senate, Bolden challenged Sen. Bob Marshall. I honestly was shocked at her inability to turn out even a representative sample of voters in what should have been her strong ED’s. I was running the phone bank that day. We got our first set of numbers from the polling places somewhere around 10:30 am. They were stunning. I knew that we could have shut down the phone bank then and there. Personal to James Taylor: If you get your butt in gear and run a decent campaign, not only can you win, you will win. It’s up to you.
Rep. District 4 (R). This is the newly-transplanted-to-Suxco district that was previously a Wilmington-area district ‘represented’ by Gerald Brady and, briefly, by Bud Freel. Of the two R’s, Jeff Hilovsky has better social media presence than Bradley Layfield. Which is all I know about this race. Sussex spies? Do yer stuff. D Keegan Worley seems like a pretty strong challenger in the general, although he’s relatively new to the district. Should be a competitive race.
Rep. District 6 (D). I admit I’ve got a dawg in this fight as I’ve been volunteering for Becca Cotto‘s campaign. Precisely the kind of grassroots campaign that I love. This session, Deb Heffernan sold her soul to the big-money special interests to try to stay in office. Buried really good progressive environmental bills in her committee in exchange for campaign cash from Bobby Byrd’s high-rolling pro-pollution clients. (She was already the beneficiary of Buccini/Pollin bucks.) Sold out her constituents in Edgemoor in doing so. She has literally, not figuratively, been invisible on the campaign trail. I feel optimistic that this seat will flip, bad news for the Kop Kabal. Good news for the people who live in the 6th.
Rep. District 13 (D). I met DeShanna Neal for the first time at the Working Families Party Meet The Candidates Forum. She’s soft-spoken, but has a powerful message. Extremely thoughtful person. I was very impressed. She’s running against the Kop Kabal’s very own Larry Mitchell who, by most accounts, has completely lost touch with his district. While I’m sure the Thin Blue Line will rally around him, DeShanna’s message and strong grassroots campaign has a great chance to triumph. Bad news for the Kop Kabal. BTW, I really like one approach that the team has taken here: After canvassing, they go to a fun event in the district. Great way to keep volunteers involved.
Rep. District 18 (D). I think Martin Willis knows he can’t defeat Sophie Phillips here. So, he’s challenged her candidacy with the Department of Elections. Phillips’ presentation at the WFP Forum was pitch-perfect. What a great successor to David Bentz she’d be. I don’t think that even Speaker Pete can get her thrown off the ballot. He’s likely leaving that to Our PAL Val. Don’t think it will work.
Rep. District 25 (D). I doubt that this will be much of a contest. John Kowalko has endorsed Cyndie Romer, and she, too, impressed at the WFP Forum. Ed Klima has a long career as a first responder and has admirable credentials. But I think they’re better suited for perhaps a run for County Council.
Rep. District 26 (D). Madinah Wilson-Anton is facing an RWNJ-turned-D. Sore loser John Viola has maxed out to Kelly Williams Maresca. I can’t see her being competitive in a two-way primary. Madinah was well on her way to a decisive victory over Viola two years ago before a late filing from another Black candidate threatened her win. She still prevailed, and I think she will win much more handily this year. I can’t wait to see if any Kop Kabal $$’s find their way into Maresca’s campaign coffers.
Rep. District 27 (D). Michael Herzfeld is from Kop Kabal Central Casting. Betcha he’s best buds with Franklin Cooke. With some Carney stench emanating from him as well. Here’s the thing, though. Eric Morrison didn’t just defeat an incumbent D last time, he obliterated him. Both he and Madinah, who were great candidates to begin with, benefited from the training and organizational assistance they got from the burgeoning progressive grassroots. That stuff doesn’t go away overnight.
Rep. District 32 (D). Well, let’s see–three Black candidates, one white candidate. Al, Wilmington math? Kerri Evelyn Harris has her hands full. While I hear that LaVaughn McCutchen is a non-factor, Rev. Lamont Pierce is campaigning hard. Corporadem Phil McGinnis could win under these circumstances. That would be a real lost opportunity. Anybody with an on-the-ground view of this race?
Rep. District 36 (R). Not sure why Patrick Smith is primarying incumbent Bryan Shupe. Looking at his website, he doesn’t seem that different from Shupe. Perhaps this is a residual effect of the Wilsons’ end run last time? I admit I don’t understand Lower Slower politics. But, then, I don’t understand the effects of in-breeding either. I’m guessing: The two are, um, inter-related?
OK, pipples, where am I totally off-base? Floor’s yours.
I agree that this primary is going to come and go with a tiny fraction of Delawareans even aware that there is a primary.
So… low turnout helps the grassroots/high voter engagement campaigns, right? I like our chances.
This is a good question. Youd think low turnout could favor the operations actively turning anyone out to vote (WFP). But I have no idea if there are good historical precedents or numbers for this.
Karl Stomberg question…
the House candidates needing the most help in my order:
Kerri……. McGinnis has high name recognition Business $$$$ and he is the son of a Kent legend the late Lt. Gov. Jim McGinnis
Madinah and Eric , a shitload of dark money is gonna drop, hopefully spent poorly but a wildcard.
DeShanna Mitchell may find his footing and will have a lot of cash, the district is a challenge. WFP is stepping up big here1
James Taylor needs direction and messaging help and with that I think he can do it. The word I get is he is hitting doors hard.
Romer, Phillips and Cotto all are running solid campaigns, but we need a sweep!
Kerri got 460 in that district v Carper. It isn’t great, but at least a base to build on. I’m not sure a connection to a Lt Gov who died in 2009 at the age of 77 will mean much to the current residents.
That was vs. 747 for Carper. Doesn’t look promising.
Well, she IS now the Democratic National Committeewoman, she’s upped her profile since then, I believe her family is very active in the district committee, and she outperformed the statewide results in that district back in 2018.
McGinnis is more of a Chamber type, and D’s who fit that mold in the district are few and far between. This isn’t Bill Bush’s district.
She’s got a good shot, I just worry about the siphoning off of the Black vote.
Phil will work the seniors and those that it resonates with. Phil is an early senior himself maybe mid 60’s.
If Julianne Murray is, according to WGMD, the true Governor of Delaware why would she run for a lesser office?
Too much time on her hands?
@El Som: Wilmington math applies in Wilmington because the black/white population split is almost equal, and almost all voters are Democrats (75% in some EDs) and can vote in the primary, and most realize that the primary, not the general election, will determine representation, so you get much higher participation in the city than elsewhere. As a result, if candidates divide the black vote by 3 and the white vote by 2 (or vice versa), you get the results you always get in Wilmington.
In District 32 it’s more complicated. District demographics are 51% white, 33% black — but lots of those whites are Republicans, who won’t be voting in this primary. The district has 7,741 Democrats, about half the total number of voters.
I would guess that Harris can’t afford to lose votes to Pierce. Why is Pierce running? Maybe a hint: He won some kind of award in 2017 from the Delaware State Police. I don’t believe in coincidence.
I’ll vote, the polling places is a long haul at ten minutes away and I’m guessing I’ll be all alone when voting. As ever state politics remain a pathetic tempest in a small teapot of greed, ego and insanity.
The guy running against Murray dropped out months ago due to “health”.
As a resident of the 16th, I think it’s a case of the loudest kid in the classroom getting the most attention. She may be heard from a bunch, still think Buckson pulls this out. He’s incredibly popular. However, I think either one of those two is dangerous in the state senate. Colin is the devil we know.
I don’t think it will be as low turnout as you may think. A decent amount of primaries across the state I think will bring people out.
But there is only one statewide primary.
Usually, top-of-the-ticket primaries drive turnout.
With so few R primaries, turnout should be well below 10%.
There are so many R and D districts w/o any local primaries.
Layfield wins the R primary in RD4, hands-down. His family has incredibly deep roots and he’s well-known and very popular.
Please don’t underestimate the needs of County Council, nor lower the standards of desirable candidates. It is actually more important to daily lives than what happens in Dover. We need good progressives running for County and local seats, and they need everyone’s support.
Dee: We obviously support your reelection, and we’ve written about it here. Your opponent seems right out of Chamber Central Casting.
I honestly don’t know enough about the two candidates for the CD 1 seat. I figure that the fact that Woods is not running for reelection is a positive (sometimes you add by subtracting). But the available info on the two primary opponents frankly didn’t tell me much.
I promise to see what I can come up with.
Thank you.
The NCC D1 seat might be worth some airtime.
My ^^ comment was in reply to the comment above “Ed Klima has a long career as a first responder and has admirable credentials. But I think they’re better suited for perhaps a run for County Council.” The need for quality candidates with progressive values is needed on Council – beyond those with EMS experience – and could provide a launchpad for those who eventually want to run for state office. Certain races should not be unopposed…
What Dee is not spitting out clearly enough to you liberal dems is that the dominant leader voice on council right now is that of a Republican, Janet Kilpatrick, who is clearly in control of the any-goes-for-our-developer-friends voting block .
While Lisa Diller has her fans, I am not one of them. She never wrote her own legislation but rubberstamped everything her GOPer BFF supported especially including inappropriate exectutive branch land use initiatives. She never formally announced her planned retirement and we are lucky to have a decent candidate for the District in Valerie George.
That was a complaint against Woods as well that he never annnounced retirement. I am favoring Toole in District 1 due to people who know him from UD and believe he will be an independent thinker. I havent yet met either candidate but Ken is endorsing Toole’s opponent.
Hollins has had two strokes this year and we are all hoping for his full recovery. His presense is missed.
Street is beyond incensed with Matt Meyer on a number of issues, not the least was the council rubberstamping of the Meyer ARPA funds ask last week. Council will each get $100 thousand from Meyer to do with what they like, beyond that, it is $54 million to go to what ever Meyer likes.
This council has completely abdicated their part in how these nearly $400 million in COVID funds are allocated to county constituents.
If people aren’t printing Delaware campaign finance reports out to check for pay as you go quid pro quo obvious relationships, they should plan to, what with Meyer now fully vested in a 2024 run for Woodburn.
Council, via George Smiley, at least had the balls to tell Meyer staff to forget about ARPA county funding of any kind going to support creating a new medical school for the state of Delaware. SEE discussion of Res 22.097 about an hour and a half into the meeting. https://nccde.new.swagit.com/videos/177785
There are no media doing the important work of checking and reporting on this government body. If it don’t bleed, it don’t lead.
That’s a great point. The NC County Council is the unit of government with the most day to day impact on our lives and I admit to knowing very little, if nothing, about it.
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I think the auditor race will be close
I think Darby and Neal lose
I think Morrison and medinah win
Kerri will win
The 14th SD race is kind of a sleeper. Heard there was a forum recently, would like to catch some of it eventually.
That SD 6 beach race? I have no idea Kinda like the 14th. All about who runs the best campaign.
Agree with Councilwoman’s Durban’s comments about the county council. Not sure, but the local party generally seems to neglect those races and never got why. It’s not exactly like Dover has a brain trust down there. It’s gotten better recently but man there is some hacks hacks down there. So the idea that being a state legislator is more prestigious then a council person is odd.
Pretty sure a council person has may more constituents then a rep.
That’s all for now. Mcguiness is working hard. Beware, beware.
Also, Lisa will win but with her lowest percentage ever. Just that type of GOP year.
NCC districts have more than 30,000 voters. Twice as many as Rep districts. I think though it is not only the Party that neglects Council seats, but potential candidates. Dover is seen as “sexier.” But Carter and I are proof positive that a lot can be done at County level, and what we do actually impacts citizens more directly. Good candidates should not poo poo running for County Council. Dover is just as dysfunctional, so not superior in that sense.