DL Open Thread: Sunday, July 31, 2022
Report: Russian Economy Is Imploding. I know, I know, it runs counter to the media narrative, but it just might be accurate. The conclusions:
– Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas
– Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy
– Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent; the hollowing out of Russia’s domestic innovation and production base has led to soaring prices and consumer angst
– As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base
– Putin is resorting to patently unsustainable, dramatic fiscal and monetary intervention to smooth over these structural economic weaknesses, which has already sent his government budget into deficit for the first time in years and drained his foreign reserves even with high energy prices – and Kremlin finances are in much, much more dire straits than conventionally understood
– Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting – in addition to Russia being substantively cut off from international financial markets, limiting its ability to tap into pools of capital needed for the revitalization of its crippled economy.
Enough for the good news. This Climate Expert Says We’re Screwed, And There’s Nothing We Can Do About It:
The publication of Bill McGuire’s latest book, Hothouse Earth, could not be more timely. Appearing in the shops this week, it will be perused by sweltering customers who have just endured record high temperatures across the UK and now face the prospect of weeks of drought to add to their discomfort.
And this is just the beginning, insists McGuire, who is emeritus professor of geophysical and climate hazards at University College London. As he makes clear in his uncompromising depiction of the coming climatic catastrophe, we have – for far too long – ignored explicit warnings that rising carbon emissions are dangerously heating the Earth. Now we are going to pay the price for our complacence in the form of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves that will easily surpass current extremes.
The crucial point, he argues, is that there is now no chance of us avoiding a perilous, all-pervasive climate breakdown. We have passed the point of no return and can expect a future in which lethal heatwaves and temperatures in excess of 50C (120F) are common in the tropics; where summers at temperate latitudes will invariably be baking hot, and where our oceans are destined to become warm and acidic. “A child born in 2020 will face a far more hostile world that its grandparents did,” McGuire insists.
Why Don’t Democrats Envision A World With Fewer Cars? E-bikes credit excised from Manchin’s Bill:
For all the justified celebration, the bill exposes a persistent blind spot pertaining to transportation, the single largest source of emissions in the United States: Congressional Democrats struggle to imagine a world where fewer people drive.
Specifically, instead of reducing emissions by swapping their SUVs for identical electric models, more Americans could ditch their cars entirely and get e-bikes. A growing body of evidence suggests that such a mode shift is already happening, leading to lower emissions—as well as safer streets and healthier citizens. But instead of using its climate bill to catalyze this encouraging trend, the Senate has tossed out an e-bike tax credit that was in the Build Back Better Act that the House passed last year.
For the unfamiliar, an e-bike is basically a traditional pedal bike affixed with a battery that offers a boost when a rider is conquering a hill, lugging groceries, or simply trying to avoid showing up sweaty to work. For a bit more money, e-cargo bikes offer additional capacity for hauling goods or kids.
For shorter trips, the extra power helps e-bikes replace car trips that a pedal bike could not. Each such substitution is a step toward curbing climate change because e-bikes produce significantly lower emissions per passenger mile than even an electric car. Their manufacturing process consumes less power and resources, and their small batteries are far less thirsty for electricity. (Which isn’t surprising, when you consider that the Hummer EV’s 2,923-pound battery weighs as much as 380 Rad Power e-bike batteries.)
Delaware legislators: You can do this at the state level. Do it.
Delaware To Become Mecca For Traveling Artists? It’s possible due to brand new soundstage:
There’s a possibility your favorite arena-touring music artist might become a client at Wilmington’s new multimillion-dollar Pine Box soundstage — as long as they have $5,000 per day for rent.
The facility cost an estimated $18 million to construct and outfit.
The star of the show is the soundstage, complemented by studio space, and meant to be rented out to clients including film crews, Broadway stars and touring musicians.
One of the most unique things about the Pine Box is it has the only soundstage in the tri-state that features a motorized grid that goes up and down. It can be raised up to 80 feet, Humphrey said.
The motorized grid is key because it allows stage crews to stand on the ground while hooking lights, sound and video equipment onto it, rather than climb high above the stage on a ladder to do that.
Looks like this was almost all private investment. I, for one, am rooting for it to succeed.
What do you want to talk about?
“Now we are going to pay the price for our complacence in the form of storms, floods, droughts and heatwaves that will easily surpass current extremes.”
But at least we sober, moderate Democrats can comfort ourselves by knowing that they’ve bested and beat back the noisy extremists, activists and far leftist weirdos who wanted to address this kind of thing.
” Russian Economy Is Imploding.”
What Russia has done should turn it into an international pariah. The USA for its climate change denial would also be a good candidate for international pariah-hood.
Your daily schadenfreude: The Saudi-backed golf tour held an event at Trump’s Bedminster, N.J., golf course. Almost nobody came. Tickets were selling for $1 on the secondary market.
Extra bonus points for ultra-tackiness: The flabby doughboy buried Ivana on his fucking golf course, apparently so he can get a tax break granted to cemeteries.
“instead of reducing emissions by swapping their SUVs for identical electric models”
I’d take that swap in a heartbeat, except nobody is offering a 1:1 swap.
The closest EV to almost-replace my family SUV is something like the Kia EV6 (MSRP $51.400). I’d be swapping my paid-off vehicle for a ~$800/month loan for six years. And at the end of six years I would own an EV with a dying battery that nobody would want to buy because much better EVs will be available.
And we’d still have to keep our ICE minivan for infrequent but essential trips with 4 passengers, or trips that can’t be interrupted for frequent recharging layovers.
“more Americans could ditch their cars entirely and get e-bikes. ”
Maybe childless urban twenty-somethings. Or maybe a bike could supplement a family’s second car.
A major travel reduction is work-from-home. Biden should stop telling people to go back to the downtown office and should instead offer incentives and infrastructure for employers to implement work-from-home.
The “good” news is we have two more summers of crippling heat waves to make an impression on voters before the 2024 election.
There are 1.95 million cars owned by residents of New York City.
There are 18,000 cars owned by residents of Paris, which intends to ban automobile traffic by 2024.
Even if it’s just in urban areas, ebikes can save a lot of emissions. But you’re right, it’s not gonna work in the suburbs, though most suburban households with two adults have two cars, and most of the miles put on those vehicles are done in short trips that would require no recharging until you’re back home.
Americans keep making this mistake: Because EVs aren’t appropriate for every circumstance, they’re not appropriate for any circumstance. Most families would do just fine with an EV as the second vehicle, though as you note, only if they have to buy another vehicle anyway.
There’s no one magic bullet. But this incremental improvement makes sense.
I would consider a rental, mass transit, or Uber for infrequent but essential trips exceeding the 250 mi round trip range of most EVs. Also, I think your cost comparison to ICEs is off, especially if you factor in all the hidden costs of ICE on the environment. Too late for you but your progeny will be paying the legacy expenses of burning fossil fuels for transportation. The real cost of replacing EV batteries on a car is break even these days at 10 years and 100k miles (but not a single oil change). Oil changes add $2k (more or less depending on if you do it yourself or take it somewhere….often it can be much higher compared to the price of an ICE engine over a 100k mile vehicle.
The hidden costs of ICE on the environment are just that — hidden, and actually nobody ever pays the bill in currency. If they were made to, gas would have been $5/gallon a long time ago. There is no better incentive to EVs than high gas prices — though in some cities they also throw in the sweetener of parking at charging stations.
I see so many Range Rovers on the road these days I feel like I’m in a remake of “Daktari.”
Unfortunately when gas prices are high enough to increase demand for EVs, demand also drives up the price of EVs.
If I have a paid-off ICE car in the driveway, I can reduce my cost and my emissions voluntarily by leaving it parked. But if I go into debt for a new EV, that ~$800 payment comes due every month whether I drive it or not, or whether I am even employed or not.
Sounds like you did your research a while back. Also there’s a little apples to oranges going on in your argument (Employed, drive time, monthly payments….).
EV’s are coming, the only obstacle is cost at this point. Having said that the cost of a traditional gas powered car or truck is insane at this point as well. It’s really not that hard to replace the battery in a ten year old EV. Yes, it’s expensive to replace the battery, but so is everything else.
“It’s really not that hard to replace the battery in a ten year old EV.”
Yes, but why would you want to? Battery tech is advancing very quickly. Unless the ten-year old EV could accept a new battery with the latest battery technology.
Guaranteed in ten years – or even six years, the duration of a new-car loan – the EV makers will find a way to make the latest batteries incompatible with cars sold today.
You would want to to stop burning fossil fuels in your vehicle.
I’ve done my own auto maintenance since age 16, I’m also an old hot rodder who has rebuilt engines in my mom’s basement and assembled one in the living room where I currently live. Worked for two years for Price Honda and have seen it down, the hardest part is wrestling the old one out. At the end of the day it’s just a battery. That and believe it of not I enjoy auto maintenance.
How much will you pay us for the thrill of keeping our autos maintained?
I have to laugh. Currently my bride and I drive relatively late model Jeep Wranglers. These vehicles get exceptionally poor MPG (20/16 with a light foot). The oil changes however are incredibly simplistic. The filter material is under the hood on top of the engine and they sit high enough off the ground that there is no jacking involved. Also, engine oil advancements mean oil and filter need only be changed yearly or every 20,000 miles and cost roughly $30 US. All of the local shops are required to accept and recycle the used oil for free (to me). However, my next vehicle will be an EV hopefully a Wrangler or similar.
Why would you need two Jeep Wranglers?
I’ll add it to the top of my list of “things I want but can’t afford.”
When we bought them, one a 5 seater and one a 2 seater, we were required to perform at work regardless of the “state of emergency.” The wrangler was at the time the quintessential off road vehicle and arguably remains the same today. Two years prior, the Delaware State Guard was required to take us to our essential jobs during a governor declared state of emergency. The guard colonel called me personally to declare they were unable to reach us with the state owned hummers. Later, we bought jeeps and were never stranded again.
When I visited cape to surf fish, I regularly pulled 4×4 trucks out of the sand with the jeep. Amazing little vehicles. I will look forward to the all EV design.