I met some DL commenters and chatted with some of our best legislators last night at the York fundraiser. FWIW, here is my take on York’s chances.
The convicted Auditor is popular in Sussex. She is the kind of person who shows up at everything. Knows everyone’s name asks about the kids by name and people love that shit. She is a Karen’s Karen. If it was a general election York would have a heavy lift, but this is a primary.
Primary voters aren’t normal voters. They pay more attention and know the increased value of their vote. Primary voters aren’t as easily swayed by the glad-handing things the convicted auditor excels at.
That said the wild card is the unions. I have’t tracked endorsements, but I watched the union vote swamp much better candidates in primaries because the numbers they can turn out in a primary are significant.