Not gonna waste precious e-space on Kent and Suxco Levy Court, County Council or row offices. Need to save room for all the snark I can muster.
Auditor Of Accounts D Primary. Some people say I overthink too much. Well, I think I’ve overthought this one. (Am I still overthinking it? What if I’m underthinking it? How will I know either way?) There’s been focus on the purported failures of the York Campaign. And, yes, the smart guys who the Party brought in to run her campaign have been typically dismissive of the grassroots here. While true, one thought is inescapable to me. Can any of you, any of you, point to a single friend or acquaintance who is affirmatively heading out to vote for KMG? I can’t. Why would they? Other than some members of the Greek community and some Suxco dead-enders, she has no constituency. I mean, she would have had to have broken her marriage vows at an incalculable rate in order to approach a majority. And it’s not as if she aims to satisfy solely Democrats. Other than (soon-to-be-deposed) Speaker Pete, virtually every single D has rallied to York’s candidacy. Oh, and ‘she’s been convicted’ is pretty much the only thing that people know about KMG. Tell me again how she’s gonna win. York 60%, KMG 40%.
State Senate District 6 D Primary. Jack Bucchioni has tossed in his terrycloth calzone. Closed up shop. Submitted his 8-day report at the same time he submitted his 30-day report. Russ Huxtable will win the primary and, IMO, be the favorite against Kop Kabalist Steve Smyk in the general. An example of how a well-run primary can help one’s general election campaign. 70-30.
State Senate District 14 D Primary. This is the seat that Bruce Ennis is vacating. A five-way primary. Let’s utilize the process of elimination, shall we? Say goodbye to Rob Sebastiano, who funded most of his campaign with a personal loan, and had run his account down to $600. Down Goes Tater! Almost no money, and literally no expenditures listed from August 15 to September 5. The other three candidates, Kyra Hoffner, Kevin Musto and Sam Noel, have relatively modest totals remaining. What’s clear, though, is that Noel has union support, which means (a) affinity mailers and (b) boots on the ground. Which is why, in what is basically a three-way, I make Noel the favorite. Can’t see him hitting 50%. I think he wins with 39%.
State Senate District 16 R Primary. Could this be the end of The Bloviator? Yes, yes I think so. Bonini vs. Eric Buckson vs. Pistol-Packin’ Mama Kim Petters. Life won’t be so bad for Colin, though. He’ll collect a pension he hasn’t earned, and he and GoMurphGo can divvy up the statewide races that they’ll have no chance of winning. Bonini can run every two years instead of only running statewide when his Senate seat isn’t up. Petters didn’t raise all that much money. Bonini raised the most, but Buckson raised more than enough to run an effective campaign. I think Buckson wins. Bonini is lazy, and Buckson, almost certainly as a Kent County Commissioner, has been more active in the district than Bonini. Look at the bright side: Buckson is an immediate upgrade on the Joint Sunset Committee, where he’ll likely be assigned. Might even attend a meeting or two.
State Rep. District 1 D Primary. First, a brief digression. Our resident statistician, Mark Brunswick, says that this district characteristically has the highest percentage turnout of any RD in Delaware. Who am I to doubt him? I’ve done a little knocking for Shane in this district. Regardless of whether one supports Shane Darby or Nnamdi Chukwuocha, I will wager that virtually no voter in this primary will support Kathy McGuiness. The reason why Nnamdi even has a primary is because he screwed up. Carrying Mayor Mike’s water on eminent domain, voting against legal rights for renters, and weakening gun control measures. He could have had this seat for as long as he wanted if only he had represented the voters in the district. As it now stands, I think Shane wins. Seemingly overnight, a tremendously strong grassroots campaign mobilized on her behalf. I am blown away by her campaign manager and the volunteer force the campaign has assembled. Sure, it’ll be close. But I’m picking Shane by a 53-47 margin.
State Rep. District 2 D Primary. Up until the release of her eight-day report, I had Stephanie Bolden on Upset Watch. With a bleepload of money in her account, she had spent about $400 on her campaign–most of it in the form of Walt’s Chicken. However, she has since sent out a couple of lit pieces, which should be enough for her to dispatch James Taylor, who impressed nobody in the progressive community. Not to mention, he gives off that same about-to-snap vibe of former Mayor Dennis Williams. Call it a recruitment failure. This seat could/should have flipped, but the right candidate didn’t step forward. A missed opportunity.
State Rep. District 4 R Primary. Not gonna pretend that I know much about this race. However, our Sussex spies have told us that Layfield should win handily. I hereby predict that Layfield will win handily. Hey, if I’m wrong, don’t blame me.
State Rep. District 6 D Primary. I suppose it’s possible that Deb Heffernan turns back the challenge of progressive Becca Cotto. But I can’t see it. Like Shane Darby, Cotto has put together a strong grassroots campaign. Unlike Darby, Cotto kicked off her campaign last year, and has been knocking doors ever since. She has painstakingly identified her supporters and turned those on the fence into supporters. Heffernan gave no sign of even being engaged in this campaign until about a month and a half ago. She’s made some head-scratching decisions, including, but not limited to, holding a fundraiser at the Hotel DuPont at a time when she had something like $75 K in the bank. As someone who believes in effective grassroots campaigns, I think Becca wins, 55-45.
State Rep. District 13 D Primary. A disclaimer–I’ve only campaigned for DeShanna Neal twice during this cycle. A political strategist who I really respect told me at the beginning of the year that Larry Mitchell was the most endangered incumbent in the D Caucus. Largely because he had essentially retired, but hadn’t bothered to tell anybody. I no longer think he’s the most endangered incumbent, although he could still lose. In the Tom Stoppard play Rosencrantz And Guildenstern Are Dead, two minor characters in Shakespeare’s Hamlet wander around the wings, trying to figure out the big picture of the play while reduced only to little snippets as clues. Meaning, I haven’t seen enough of the campaign to know how well it’s doing. However, the snippets don’t bode well, at least not to me. Kids–if you’re running a grassroots campaign, invest in t-shirts with the candidate’s name on them. Make it your first investment, along with your puppy piece. What’s the average door response rate? 30%? Still, you have cars going by, people walking their dogs, et al. Every time they see that name, it’s a voter contact. This campaign? No-t-shirts. Hundreds of voter contacts that didn’t happen. Make sure that you display the candidate to their best advantage. The picture of DeShanna that was used in their tabloid piece doesn’t even look like her. Looks more like a Teaching Assistant from the ’60’s who Angela Davis had taken under her wing. Quality control on choosing turfs was also a problem. These are uncharacteristic of the grassroots campaigns we’ve seen the last three cycles, and I don’t know why. So, I think Larry is gonna squeeze back in. A huge missed opportunity. The good news? After having coasted to reelection for over a decade, He’ll probably do what Bill Oberle did when he almost got knocked off. Say ‘Fuck this’, retire, and buy a little place downstate. I think he wins, 55-45.
State Rep. District 18 D Primary. Word on the street is that Martin Willis has folded up his tent, and that Sophie Phillips will almost certainly win the primary. Her presentation at a WFP Meet The Candidates Forum was arguably the strongest of the evening. She’s an eminently-worthy successor to David Bentz. I think she has leadership potential down the line.
State Rep. District 25 D Primary. John Kowalko has endorsed Cyndie Romer and, while it took awhile for her campaign to start clicking, it’s running smoothly now. If you look at Edward Klima’s financial report, he is being funded almost exclusively by the developers, the mobile home park magnates and the like. Cyndie has outspent and outraised him, and she’s the better fit in this district. Don’t think it will be all that close.
State Rep. District 26 D Primary. Nobody, nobody, is more worthy of getting her ass handed to her this cycle than Kelly Williams Maresca. She and her minions have run the dirtiest campaign this cycle. Must admit, maybe I know less about politics than I thought, because running as someone who will be in the pockets of the downstate developers and the mobile home magnates doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me. Let’s remember that the only reason Madinah Wilson-Anton’s race was close last time was because of the mysterious introduction of a Black candidate near the filing deadline. This time, it’s Good vs. Evil. God bless America, Good wins this one. I’ll say 60-40.
State Rep. District 27 D Primary. Eric Morrison has turned into a machine. Raises lots of money, spends it wisely, and is a true progressive. The ex-cop running against him, Michael Hertzfeld, has not raised much money, and is from the Carney/DeMatteis wing of the Party. 70-30 Eric.
State Rep. District 32 D Primary. I’m feeling a lot better about this race. Keri Evelyn Harris was never in danger of peaking too soon, but she’s found her stride vs. her Chamber Central Casting opponent Phil McGinnis. I feel better about this race b/c neither of the Black spoilers have raised much money or have done anything with the money they’ve raised. I just don’t see McGinnis winning in a race where the primary electorate tends to skew leftward. Should be close, though. Harris by 4 points.
State Rep. District 36 R Primary. Gotta wonder why Bryan Shupe is even facing a primary challenger here. Did the Wilson clan put Patrick Smith up to it? Doesn’t matter. According to his campaign finance report, Patrick Smith neither raised nor spent any money between the 30-day report and the eight day report. Shupe, 80-20.
NCC District 1. I can only go by anecdotal observation, but it appears that Brandon Toole has the edge over Frank Maule. I think Toole’s overwhelming support in the LGBTQ community will make the difference here.
OK, folks, tell me where I’m clueless. I like to think I can handle it.