El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em (Almost) All For You
Not gonna waste precious e-space on Kent and Suxco Levy Court, County Council or row offices. Need to save room for all the snark I can muster.
Auditor Of Accounts D Primary. Some people say I overthink too much. Well, I think I’ve overthought this one. (Am I still overthinking it? What if I’m underthinking it? How will I know either way?) There’s been focus on the purported failures of the York Campaign. And, yes, the smart guys who the Party brought in to run her campaign have been typically dismissive of the grassroots here. While true, one thought is inescapable to me. Can any of you, any of you, point to a single friend or acquaintance who is affirmatively heading out to vote for KMG? I can’t. Why would they? Other than some members of the Greek community and some Suxco dead-enders, she has no constituency. I mean, she would have had to have broken her marriage vows at an incalculable rate in order to approach a majority. And it’s not as if she aims to satisfy solely Democrats. Other than (soon-to-be-deposed) Speaker Pete, virtually every single D has rallied to York’s candidacy. Oh, and ‘she’s been convicted’ is pretty much the only thing that people know about KMG. Tell me again how she’s gonna win. York 60%, KMG 40%.
State Senate District 6 D Primary. Jack Bucchioni has tossed in his terrycloth calzone. Closed up shop. Submitted his 8-day report at the same time he submitted his 30-day report. Russ Huxtable will win the primary and, IMO, be the favorite against Kop Kabalist Steve Smyk in the general. An example of how a well-run primary can help one’s general election campaign. 70-30.
State Senate District 14 D Primary. This is the seat that Bruce Ennis is vacating. A five-way primary. Let’s utilize the process of elimination, shall we? Say goodbye to Rob Sebastiano, who funded most of his campaign with a personal loan, and had run his account down to $600. Down Goes Tater! Almost no money, and literally no expenditures listed from August 15 to September 5. The other three candidates, Kyra Hoffner, Kevin Musto and Sam Noel, have relatively modest totals remaining. What’s clear, though, is that Noel has union support, which means (a) affinity mailers and (b) boots on the ground. Which is why, in what is basically a three-way, I make Noel the favorite. Can’t see him hitting 50%. I think he wins with 39%.
State Senate District 16 R Primary. Could this be the end of The Bloviator? Yes, yes I think so. Bonini vs. Eric Buckson vs. Pistol-Packin’ Mama Kim Petters. Life won’t be so bad for Colin, though. He’ll collect a pension he hasn’t earned, and he and GoMurphGo can divvy up the statewide races that they’ll have no chance of winning. Bonini can run every two years instead of only running statewide when his Senate seat isn’t up. Petters didn’t raise all that much money. Bonini raised the most, but Buckson raised more than enough to run an effective campaign. I think Buckson wins. Bonini is lazy, and Buckson, almost certainly as a Kent County Commissioner, has been more active in the district than Bonini. Look at the bright side: Buckson is an immediate upgrade on the Joint Sunset Committee, where he’ll likely be assigned. Might even attend a meeting or two.
State Rep. District 1 D Primary. First, a brief digression. Our resident statistician, Mark Brunswick, says that this district characteristically has the highest percentage turnout of any RD in Delaware. Who am I to doubt him? I’ve done a little knocking for Shane in this district. Regardless of whether one supports Shane Darby or Nnamdi Chukwuocha, I will wager that virtually no voter in this primary will support Kathy McGuiness. The reason why Nnamdi even has a primary is because he screwed up. Carrying Mayor Mike’s water on eminent domain, voting against legal rights for renters, and weakening gun control measures. He could have had this seat for as long as he wanted if only he had represented the voters in the district. As it now stands, I think Shane wins. Seemingly overnight, a tremendously strong grassroots campaign mobilized on her behalf. I am blown away by her campaign manager and the volunteer force the campaign has assembled. Sure, it’ll be close. But I’m picking Shane by a 53-47 margin.
State Rep. District 2 D Primary. Up until the release of her eight-day report, I had Stephanie Bolden on Upset Watch. With a bleepload of money in her account, she had spent about $400 on her campaign–most of it in the form of Walt’s Chicken. However, she has since sent out a couple of lit pieces, which should be enough for her to dispatch James Taylor, who impressed nobody in the progressive community. Not to mention, he gives off that same about-to-snap vibe of former Mayor Dennis Williams. Call it a recruitment failure. This seat could/should have flipped, but the right candidate didn’t step forward. A missed opportunity.
State Rep. District 4 R Primary. Not gonna pretend that I know much about this race. However, our Sussex spies have told us that Layfield should win handily. I hereby predict that Layfield will win handily. Hey, if I’m wrong, don’t blame me.
State Rep. District 6 D Primary. I suppose it’s possible that Deb Heffernan turns back the challenge of progressive Becca Cotto. But I can’t see it. Like Shane Darby, Cotto has put together a strong grassroots campaign. Unlike Darby, Cotto kicked off her campaign last year, and has been knocking doors ever since. She has painstakingly identified her supporters and turned those on the fence into supporters. Heffernan gave no sign of even being engaged in this campaign until about a month and a half ago. She’s made some head-scratching decisions, including, but not limited to, holding a fundraiser at the Hotel DuPont at a time when she had something like $75 K in the bank. As someone who believes in effective grassroots campaigns, I think Becca wins, 55-45.
State Rep. District 13 D Primary. A disclaimer–I’ve only campaigned for DeShanna Neal twice during this cycle. A political strategist who I really respect told me at the beginning of the year that Larry Mitchell was the most endangered incumbent in the D Caucus. Largely because he had essentially retired, but hadn’t bothered to tell anybody. I no longer think he’s the most endangered incumbent, although he could still lose. In the Tom Stoppard play Rosencrantz And Guildenstern Are Dead, two minor characters in Shakespeare’s Hamlet wander around the wings, trying to figure out the big picture of the play while reduced only to little snippets as clues. Meaning, I haven’t seen enough of the campaign to know how well it’s doing. However, the snippets don’t bode well, at least not to me. Kids–if you’re running a grassroots campaign, invest in t-shirts with the candidate’s name on them. Make it your first investment, along with your puppy piece. What’s the average door response rate? 30%? Still, you have cars going by, people walking their dogs, et al. Every time they see that name, it’s a voter contact. This campaign? No-t-shirts. Hundreds of voter contacts that didn’t happen. Make sure that you display the candidate to their best advantage. The picture of DeShanna that was used in their tabloid piece doesn’t even look like her. Looks more like a Teaching Assistant from the ’60’s who Angela Davis had taken under her wing. Quality control on choosing turfs was also a problem. These are uncharacteristic of the grassroots campaigns we’ve seen the last three cycles, and I don’t know why. So, I think Larry is gonna squeeze back in. A huge missed opportunity. The good news? After having coasted to reelection for over a decade, He’ll probably do what Bill Oberle did when he almost got knocked off. Say ‘Fuck this’, retire, and buy a little place downstate. I think he wins, 55-45.
State Rep. District 18 D Primary. Word on the street is that Martin Willis has folded up his tent, and that Sophie Phillips will almost certainly win the primary. Her presentation at a WFP Meet The Candidates Forum was arguably the strongest of the evening. She’s an eminently-worthy successor to David Bentz. I think she has leadership potential down the line.
State Rep. District 25 D Primary. John Kowalko has endorsed Cyndie Romer and, while it took awhile for her campaign to start clicking, it’s running smoothly now. If you look at Edward Klima’s financial report, he is being funded almost exclusively by the developers, the mobile home park magnates and the like. Cyndie has outspent and outraised him, and she’s the better fit in this district. Don’t think it will be all that close.
State Rep. District 26 D Primary. Nobody, nobody, is more worthy of getting her ass handed to her this cycle than Kelly Williams Maresca. She and her minions have run the dirtiest campaign this cycle. Must admit, maybe I know less about politics than I thought, because running as someone who will be in the pockets of the downstate developers and the mobile home magnates doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me. Let’s remember that the only reason Madinah Wilson-Anton’s race was close last time was because of the mysterious introduction of a Black candidate near the filing deadline. This time, it’s Good vs. Evil. God bless America, Good wins this one. I’ll say 60-40.
State Rep. District 27 D Primary. Eric Morrison has turned into a machine. Raises lots of money, spends it wisely, and is a true progressive. The ex-cop running against him, Michael Hertzfeld, has not raised much money, and is from the Carney/DeMatteis wing of the Party. 70-30 Eric.
State Rep. District 32 D Primary. I’m feeling a lot better about this race. Keri Evelyn Harris was never in danger of peaking too soon, but she’s found her stride vs. her Chamber Central Casting opponent Phil McGinnis. I feel better about this race b/c neither of the Black spoilers have raised much money or have done anything with the money they’ve raised. I just don’t see McGinnis winning in a race where the primary electorate tends to skew leftward. Should be close, though. Harris by 4 points.
State Rep. District 36 R Primary. Gotta wonder why Bryan Shupe is even facing a primary challenger here. Did the Wilson clan put Patrick Smith up to it? Doesn’t matter. According to his campaign finance report, Patrick Smith neither raised nor spent any money between the 30-day report and the eight day report. Shupe, 80-20.
NCC District 1. I can only go by anecdotal observation, but it appears that Brandon Toole has the edge over Frank Maule. I think Toole’s overwhelming support in the LGBTQ community will make the difference here.
OK, folks, tell me where I’m clueless. I like to think I can handle it.
Too bad about Taylor but if Cotto, Darby and either Phillips or Neal win, that’s curtains fir the leadership. Right?
Pete’s gone regardless. He used up any remaining goodwill he had in the Caucus when he went AWOL on KMG. Longhurst has had the long knives out for some time now, and Pete effectively abdicated the throne.
As for the rest–it’s complicated. Does Larry Mitchell lose?
If Val becomes Pete’s Successor-Apparent, what concessions will she have to make with the progressive bloc to seal the deal?
If ALL the progressive challengers win, will the entire Kop Kabal bloc be deposed?
Hey, as long as I’m overthinking things, does Pete even return to Dover in January? Does he serve out the next term as a back-bencher? I’m wondering if he can be replaced on the ballot if he decides to abandon his reelection bid.
Hey, what can I say? Finally got ‘The Covid’. Ironically, two days AFTER I got the Omicron booster. It’s basically an annoying summer cold. Lots of time on my hands (and drugs in my system) to let my imagination run wild.
Longhurst?Jeez. If the new blood couldn’t do any better than that, I’d question the point of changing.
I have a relative in the 32nd. McGinnis could win there. Four slick mailers over the last week alone to a sad little one by Harris. A text message. Signs all over.
In SD6, agreed that Huxtable will win with a landslide and be a worthy challenger to Smyk. Bucchioni will run again for something else and lose again.
The Sussex races:
Register of Wills: Greg Fuller finally wins an election. Cindy Green’s attempt to hand her old job to her daughter gets smacked down. Appointed incumbent Ellen Magee is sent packing. (Did Carney really appoint a Republican, or did she switch parties after out of desperation?)
Recorder of Deeds: Scott Dailey wins re-election.
County Council 5th: John Rieley narrowly wins over Mark Schaeffer ally and huge spender ($168K self-financing) Keller Hopkins. I’m saying 52-48.
The Democrats finally have contenders for both council races, but no one has any idea who they are. Republicans will hold on to both seats easily.
Thanks for the update. Appreciate the view from Sussex!
Here’s the thing about slick mailers–those who have solid grassroots campaigns don’t rely on them. Oh, sure, they’ll send out one or two. But ID’ing primary supporters and getting them out to vote are the hallmarks of a grassroots campaign. Volunteers and strategic targeting are their weapons of choice.
When you’ve got a lot of money and don’t know what to do with it, you send out a shitload of mailers. You send them out to a wide universe because YOU HAVE NO IDEA who’s voting for you.
Deb Heffernan’s doing it now. When Tony DeLuca was being outworked by Bryan Townsend, people were sometimes getting three mailers from Tiny Tony every day. It always has a diminishing effect the more you send out.
We must be watching different races because I can’t even imagine how you see a Scott Dailey win, or even a Greg win, CERTAINLY not a Rieley win.
Green, Baker, and Hopkins for the win. Bank on it.
Recorder: Dailey has countywide name recognition from winning multiple times, and Baker has not made a compelling case for replacing him.
Register: Fuller has the money and the establishment GOP support. Green and her mother have pissed a lot of people off with the succession stunt. The handful of people voting for Magee may play a spoiler factor, perhaps, so I could be wrong here.
Council: Hopkins has been trying to buy the seat, to be sure, but he’s been floundering in every debate and interview. People can easily see how ignorant he is about basic government and the potential for conflicts of interest with his business. His alliance with Schaeffer and Green also isn’t going to win him many votes. And the accusation against Rieley over the fill dirt is angering a lot of farmers, for whom that is a very standard business practice.
Wager: I’ll buy you a case of the finest RAPA scrapple if your picks win.
My Sussex chops are a bit out of date but i did live there for 24 years and I know these folks. I think Sussex Watcher will win his wager. Dailey notwithstanding his stupid gun trick is a personable guy and my business interactions with him were good. I know Rieley and Hopkins and have had interactions with both. John has a huge network, a giant family and is a nice enough guy but has gone full RWNJ. Hopkins was County chair and, in my view, pretty slippery. Owing to the fact that the electorate is RWNJ advantage Rieley.
Wilson and Lawson have revoked their Bonini endorsements, and he’s pulling some PAC shenanigans: https://baytobaynews.com/stories/16th-senate-districts-republican-primary-race-causing-controversy,88190
ha ha hee hee this is the end of Bonini. His PAC may be waiting to file their campaign report until the “invoice”arrives in the mail.
From the article “No third-party advertisement report was filed nor included within the Responsible Delaware PAC’s 30-day campaign finance report. As of Wednesday, the Delaware Department of Elections had not confirmed whether the PAC was in violation of campaign finance law.
Ms. Petters criticized Sen. Bonini for the potential violation, noting that he had to be aware of it because he voted in support of the Delaware Elections Disclosure Act in 2012. In an interview, Ms. Petters said Sen. Bonini and the Responsible Delaware PAC’s goal with the mailers was to launch “smear and attack campaigns” at the expense of his opponents, adding “at least Eric Buckson can maintain some sort of respectable campaigning.””
This ACLU Poll is really encouraging!!!!!
https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/09/08/aclu-poll-offers-voters-priorities/65910286007/
i wish i shared your optimism on KMG I hope you are correct!
Let’s take a moment to shame Coons Lackey Jimmy Paoli!
This on the 8 day report of Maresca!
08/26/2022 James Paoli 100 White Clay Center, Suite 102, Newark, Delaware,
19711
$600.00
Buckson is certainly the favorite to win down here, and for those that care, in the 4th Levy Court primary Scott is the favorite to win as well.
I’m not an optimist so I think York’s lack of campaigning haunts her in a narrow loss.
Then answer me this question: Who will affirmatively come out to vote for KMG? And, why? Because she’s running a 10-year-old picture from when she used to be plausibly hot?
Seriously, what will motivate people to vote for her? What people pretty much know about her is that she’s a convict.
“Plausibly hot,” what a weird thing to say.
You’re taking issue with “plausibly hot”?
That’s a far cry from the best line in El Som’s analysis. I’m talking about this one: ” I mean, she would have had to have broken her marriage vows at an incalculable rate in order to approach a majority.”
I was, and remain, incredibly proud of that line.
Lots of people who pay no attention will vote for her because they’ve heard her name.
Most people go into the voting booth with nothing informing their choices. Those people will vote for the incumbent.
If there was a full slate of races to bring people out, that could be a plausible scenario.
But not here, where it’s the only statewide race.
“Most people go into the voting booth with nothing informing their choices. Those people will vote for the incumbent.” <<<< THIS. I worked early voting Wednesday at Claymont Community Center and will again tomorrow. Readers of this blog and listeners to The Bunker notwithstanding, most of the voters are clueless. Today I talked to a very sharp guy (otherwise), but he's busy and not in the weeds about politics. Shocked to hear he didn't even know KMG has legal issues.
“He didn’t even know KMG has legal issues.”
This isn’t surprising. Delaware has no TV stations for local news. The newspaper’s circulation is about 20% of what it was 20 years ago. Where would they learn of it?
To follow up on that, this is the reason York should have invested heavily on mailers. One side a pic of a smiling Lydia York, the other a hit piece of damning headlines and an unflattering photo of KMcG. That way you both educate voters about the incumbent and give them an alternative. And even if it’s seen for only 2 seconds on the way to the waste bin, it’s done its job.
This isn’t brain surgery, folks, and it ain’t all that expensive. Ms. York has no name recognition in the community, McGuiness has lots. York’s team did nothing to counter that.
Turning up at the Arden Fair is nice, but 90% of those she met already have no memory of it.
To paraphrase Menalaus “Pappy” O’Daniel, one-at-a-timin’ cannot compete with mass communicatin’.
That’s exactly what they should have done. But they did a massive, and I mean massive, text outreach progam this week, focusing on KMG’s criminal history.
Better late than never. And, IMO, probably not too late.
“Not to mention, he gives off that same extra-chromosome vibe of former Mayor Dennis Williams.”
Maybe I’m misinterpreting, but that comment seems incredibly ableist (and this is not coming from a Williams defender or someone with a dog in the RD 2 race).
Don’t know what ‘ableist’ means, but I saw (then-Rep. Williams) literally threaten to fight another legislator. Took place in the Wilmington Mayor’s office. Think it was Sills at the time.
Just one example of his well-documented hair trigger temper. (Which is why he had to take early retirement from the Wilmington Police Department.)
I’m sure it’s a term that woke progressives shouldn’t use. Except, I don’t really know what ‘woke’ means either.
Harold, I picked up on the same thing.
El Som – It’s not a funny line and insinuating that someone has a development or intellectual delay is not funny. Plus, insulting to people with Down syndrome everywhere to compare them to Williams. Do better.
Message received.
Thank you!
ACLU poll very hopeful for Darby, Taylor, and Neal.
With the Delaware primary days away, ACLU poll offers glimpse into voters’ priorities
https://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/09/08/aclu-poll-offers-voters-priorities/65910286007/
That indeed is encouraging.
The Lydia York campaign paid a campaign manager $8,500 last month. That’s funny.
The race is full of comic potential for enterprising podcasters.
There’s no campaign tho. Lol
45K to a 1099 consultant and a payroll company! GEEZ!
The Lydia York campaign has stolen more money than Kathy ever did. I’m sorry for saying these dangerous truths. Look at the documents. Absolute travesty. What a shame.
LOL. Now I know what look like when I put up consecutive ‘Coons sucks’ posts.
C’mon man only 45 K of 79K total raised went to a consultant and a payroll company. How can you ask for better spending of my and other contributor’s cash???
Shouldn’t those “Paychex” lines be parsed out? I’m sure Paychex took a fee, but not that much. Shouldn’t the payees be the ones listed on the report? Who actually collected that cash?
You all (patrons) will really enjoy tomorrow’s episode.
Unless I am name-checked, I will likely hate it.
There’s something for everyone.
Pistol Pete only needs a few votes from the D caucus to stay in power.
You better believe he would take the leadership vote to the floor, and you better also believe that every single R will vote for him.
The likely votes in the D caucus for him are:
Carson
Bush
Mitchell
Heffernan
Bolden
Dorsey-Walker
Pete gets 15 votes from the Rs. he actually gets 16 given the new Sussex district right?
He only needs 21 votes to hang on to the job.
With those 5-6 D votes and all the Rs on his side, he remains in power.
You better believe he would take the vote to the house floor!
I’m hearing that there are movements afoot to make a play for the speaker job.
Baumbach supposedly wants the job and is making plays.
Also hearing Minor-Brown and Johnson are interested in leadership.
There is also a Dark horse/long shot Kent D that’s been approached to run.
That’s all the news that’s fit to print.
No, that won’t happen. Most of those names above are as likely to vote for Longhurst, more likely in fact, than to vote for Pete.
With a more progressive Caucus, deals will have to be cut in order for anybody to emerge as Speaker.
Pete is Dead Speaker Walking. Were he in a stronger position, maybe it would be a possibility. This idea has been floated before, but has not come to fruition. But he’s a supplicant now. Can’t WAIT to see what committee assignments he gets.
Sean Lynn would make a good speaker, but is the absolute longest of longshots.
PLUS, (and I’ve been waiting to hint at this for quite awhile now) there is a very promising sleeper race that we’ll all be talking about before too long.
I think McGuiness wins. York has run a nonexistent campaign. Hugely disappointing.
Would love to be wrong, but I think we’ll have a situation where an officeholder convicted of abuse of office wins an election and is poised to serve another term. Only Carney could potentially stop her (?)
That is simply not true. That may have been true two weeks ago, I don’t know. But the campaign has been on track, certainly not as full-speed ahead as many of us would like, for awhile now.
Just because one doesn’t see things happening doesn’t mean that things aren’t happening.
I feel more confident that Lydia York will win every day.
on track = she went to the Arden Event and walked in a Labor Day Parade. Dynamic campaigning.
Yeah, you know it all.
Do you ever have fun on the internet?
I generally have nothing BUT fun on the internet.
Anonymously shilling for the corporate cop status quo is real political courage, to me.
Ok Let’s give this a shot:
KMG W by 3
Kerri W by 2
Eric W by 5
Madinah W by 8
Deshanna L by 3
Taylor L by 6
Cotto W by 3
Shane’ W by 2
Nothing would make me happier than to have 2 of these wrong. I have some whispers on the ACLU data that may tilt those races.
Darby by 6 (she has labor and the neighborhoods helping, big in that area)
Kerri by 2 (she has been working her butt off but all the people that pushed her to run against Carper have decided to stay home instead of helping)
Heffernan by 8
Madinah by 2 (some negative pieces made the mail; as good as Madinah is, she doesn’t make many community meetings and the leaders of those groups notice. Good thing they don’t have all the votes)
Eric by 8 (He is everywhere and very active, should be enough even with the negative pieces)
Boulden by 10 (she seems to do no wrong to that district)
Sophie by 8 (Martin only has one line at the doors and it is to bash Sophie)
Buckson by a couple (Bonini doesn’t seem to care enough to do anything)
Toole by 4 (the only thing he seems to have is K. Woods running everything; wonder what he gets out of it)
Romer by a bunch
Shupe by a bunch
Huxtable by 10
14th SD is tight. All except Sebastiano seem to have their niche but Noel has labor money still coming in and help at the doors and gets the nod. No matter what, this district could go to Pugh very easily because it doesn’t seem red or blue on any given day.
The auditor race is closer than thought. KMG is telling everyone that the establishment is going after her because she is so honest, but York should win. Kent and Sussex may go KMG but New Castle should prevail. York by 4
Not endorsing, but I definitely see this logic. Frankly, I’d take that result without pausing.
Is Heffernan’s budget committee strong-arming and Bob Byrd’s fellowship that strong? I guess we’ll see.
Very reasoned take tho, I have to say.
The Heffernan prediction I think is off. Heffernan will likely close the year with the same $75 K she started the year with. Never touched it.
Virtually all her spending came in the last month and a half. Cotto came close to matching her spending, and had a powerhouse grassroots operation. I think Heffernan woke up to the challenge too late, but who knows?
We’ll see just how strong a factor incumbency is. Matt Meyer virtually strapped Heffernan to his back and paraded her around as a cash cow. I won’t forget.
“14th SD is tight…. No matter what, this district could go to Pugh very easily because it doesn’t seem red or blue on any given day.”
I see this as a very likely pickup for the GOP. Which is fucked up in view of everything we know about modern Republicanism.
You’re crazy if you think McGinnis is losing
Forgot Mitchell by 20.