Delaware Registration Gyrations Deep Dive – Coming Soon
When I was looking at why Sarah McBride will defeat Tom Carper and thereby be our next US Senator, all of the posts casually assumed that McBride would easily win in the general election. I take it as a given that the Democratic Primary is the election for statewide offices, and the moribund Delaware GOP can be ignored for the a-holes and lunatics that they are.
But is that a safe assumption? And if so where did the all-out Democratic statewide hegemony come from? To examine (if not answer) those questions I may take another multi-post project looking at political registrations in Delaware since 1996 and attempting to map any registration changes to candidates and current events to see if the Dem hegemony is real and if real, relatively permanent.
Not since Simpler and that was a presidential off-year.
No Republican non-incumbent has won statewide in a Presidential year since Pete Dupont. That’s 45 years ago, so I’d say it is a pretty solid hegemony.
But yeah, I’ll be looking at that sizable chuck of people who are simpletons or too wishy-washy to pick a side.
For Jane Brady, moribund means being in the state of dying. Approaching death.
You could stop right there. Yes, any Democrat, barring perhaps a criminal conviction, will beat any Rethuglican statewide.
Your numbers are correct for the two major parties. However, there are 171,136 registered No Party. There are 9,988 registered in the Independent Party of Delaware. There are an additional 5,000+ registered in other small parties.
Statewide election results are determined by the turnout percentages in the two major parties and the turnout level and preferences of those 185,000 voters not registered in the two major parties. A low Democratic turnout combined with a high Republican turnout and a sizeable swing of other voters to the R candidates, can and has resulted in Republican statewide wins.
Not since you arrived in Delaware it hasn’t. The last one was Tom Wagner, who coasted on incumbency and the public not caring about the office. You really have to stretch to make your point, since independents plus Republicans barely match the total of Democrats.
Why don’t you run as a Republican and find out?
One reason I posted was because I knew you would find some way to attack me. I hope you got a thrill from that
Tom Wagner and Ken Simpler. 2014
BTW- I have lived in Delaware full time for 21 years.
I forgot about Simpler, who won because he faced a guy who should have been prosecuted — he did worse than McGuiness has.
My point still stands — no Republican has won a statewide office under the circumstances you describe. For more than 21 years.
Simpler beat Barney, not Flowers. Barney may have had issues as a compelling candidate, but I’d hardly say he should have been prosecuted.
@SWatcher: You’re right, my bad.
And Mitch sort of has a point, in that the down-ballot races attract fewer votes than the headliners. If everyone who voted for Coons in that election had voted for Barney, Barney would have won. It can’t be proved, but all that bad Flowers publicity couldn’t have helped Barney. That said, it wasn’t a close race. Simpler outperformed Senate candidate Kevin Wade by 23,000 votes, so turnout wasn’t the key.
since you were the last party endorsed challenger to lose to an incumbent I would be very interested in your prediction for today.
Glad you get an erection when you launch personal attacks. Keep it up
I have lived in Delaware full time for 21 years.
Bill Roth, Mike Castle, Tom Wagner and Ken Simpler all won in those years.
You need to get your mind out of the gutter. And how is telling you to run as a Republican a “personal attack,” snowflake?
I don’t care enough about a failed wannabe to have the reaction you’re so obsessed with.
Neither Bill Roth nor Mike Castle won because of low turnout. Wagner I mentioned — he coasted on incumbency for decades. Simpler faced a badly damaged candidate.
None won under the circumstances you describe. Indeed, I wonder what your point was in posting in the first place.
Here’s an idea: Howzabout you clean out the Democratic Party down there, which is full of people like Schwartzkopf and McGuiness who are Democrats in name only, rather than biting the ankles of people who understand Delaware politics far better than you ever will?
Bill Roth lost for the last time in 2000, math challenged?
I think my original point is unrelated: Simpler won statewide in a presidential off-year.
No Republican non-incumbent has won statewide in a Presidential year since Pete Dupont. That’s 45 years ago, so I’d say it is a pretty solid hegemony.