El Somnambulo Predicts ‘Em (Almost) All For You

Very few competitive races this year.  Blame both the registration edges and the failure of the Rethugs to field legitimate challengers (filling empty spots on the ballot with placeholders in August does not constitute fielding legit challengers).

We’re gonna review the ballot from the top down.

US Congress: Lee Murphy is the perfect R candidate.  Recites his lines like the actor he is.  Doesn’t believe a word he says. Looks the part.  Recycles his signs so there’s little cost involved.  Little reward either. LBR is of more value as a campaign surrogate for others than as a Representative.  Faced with token opposition during a time that democracy hangs in the balance, she opted to tout her bipartisanship in her commercials.  Coons, Carper and Carney (no Oxford comma) nodded their bobbleheads in agreement.  Lisa wins, 62-38.

Attorney General: Some people dissed Kathy Jennings because she didn’t get convictions on all the corrupt officials she prosecuted.  Nevertheless, (a) the officials were corrupt and (b) no other AG prosecuted them.  She won’t get as high a percentage as the Delaware Way types because the cops are, you know, discontented.  As are corrupt officials.  But she’ll win handily as she deserves.  I’m calling it 58-42 over RWNJ Julianne Murray.

Auditor:  After destroying KMG, Lydia York will roll over RWNJ Janice Lorrah, who has run an invisible campaign.  62-38 is pretty much my default for non-competitive races.

Treasurer:  Colleen Davis clearly has political ambitions beyond being Treasurer.  She’s pretty much everywhere campaigning for pretty much everybody.  Since she doesn’t really stand for anything, she’s a perfect candidate for, say, Lieutenant Governor.  She’s running against Greg Coverdale, who is Black.  You see, Rethugs aren’t racist, or so they want you to believe.  Black candidates make great sacrificial lambs, and it provides cover for the unrelenting racism that underlies the Rethugs’ raison d’etre.  Hope Coverdale is getting something out of it.  He’s actually a very well-qualified candidate. Better qualified than Davis in fact.  Davis, 62-38.

State Senate District 1:  Sarah McBride has an opponent of sorts–Scott Walker, running as a write-in.  McBride, 92-8.  Come to think of it, it will be higher than 92%.  Most of Walker’s supporters can neither read nor write.

Senate District 4: Ted ‘Horsey D’ Kittila, fresh off his ass-whooping at the hands of Bud Freel, is back for yet more punishment.  This time, at the hands of first-term incumbent Laura Sturgeon.  All you need to know is that former Senator Monsignor Greg Lavelle, flush with campaign cash, opted not to run.  Sturgeon beat Lavelle, 53-47, back in 2018. The registration figures are far more daunting for the R’s this time around. I’m looking at Sturgeon, 60-40, this time.  Kittila is in danger of becoming one of these perennial candidates who becomes more of a laughingstock with each unsuccessful run.

Senate District 5:  I don’t think that State Senator will be the final office that Kyle Evans Gay runs for and wins.  After knocking off Hockessin’s Cathy Cloutier in 2020, ending Cloutier’s long and undistinguished career, she will make mincemeat of name-on-the-ballot Daniel Schmick.  I’m going 63-37.

Senate District 6:  From Schmick to Smyk.  This is one of the very few competitive races in the state.  Ernie Lopez retired from this seat, perhaps to spend more time with his family, well, I don’t know who wants to spend more time with him.  This eastern Sussex district has the following voter registration:  18,942 D; 15,770 R; and 11,471 I.  Russ Huxtable handily won the D primary over John Bucchioni.  He will face ex-cop and soon-to-be ex-state rep Steve Smyk, who has been accused of police misconduct with, of course, no follow-up or word from the State Police.  By all accounts, Huxtable is very well-liked and, although Smyk likely has more name recognition, he’s also made enemies.  He’s far to the right of the district’s electorate.  I think Huxtable wins a close one, 52-48.

Senate District 7:  While we know that this district can elect a Republican, with Anthony Delcollo having defeated a past-her-sell-by-date Patti Blevins, there’s no way the voters will elect a self-described ‘character’ like M. Sherm Porter.  Why, he’s a ‘Business Success Coach’.  You know, after years as a caterer. (You’d think that if he was a successful caterer, he’d, you know, remain a caterer. But what do I know?)  I think the 7th SD can and should do better than Spiros Mantzavinos, but No-Term Sherm (you’re welcome) isn’t the answer.  60-40 Spiros.

Senate District 8:  President Pro-Tem Sen. Dave Sokola faces yet another real estate agent trying to gin up business. His name is Victor Setting II.  Can’t embellish it more than that.  Sokola 59-41.

 Senate District 9:  Sen. Jack Walsh faces one of the more impressive R challengers in Brenda Mennella.  For some reason, she’s running on a pledge to enact Congressional term limits, presumably by signing a petition or something.  She ‘stands against crime’.  By ‘more impressive’, I mean ‘less unimpressive’.  Oh, she’s Black.  She’s not beating the senator who sponsored the minimum wage increase.  She’ll be on the losing end, say, wait for it, 62-38.

Senate District 12:  While I welcome a challenge to Sen. Nicole Poore, one of Delaware’s most self-dealing legislators, challenger Bill Alexander represents everything we need less of in the General Assembly.  Ex-state cop with a golden parachute second career at, wait for it, Del-Tech.  Lustily eyeing that third state pension with the General Assembly.  Not gonna win, though.  Poore, 58-42.

Senate District 14:  Kyra Hoffner vs. Mark Pugh is another of the very few competitive races this year.  While Hoffner might be slightly left of the district overall, she’s not that far left, and the district isn’t as conservative as you might think.  It’s become more suburban over the last 15 years or so. Pugh has been active in a lot of community organizations,  and is a formidable candidate.  However, the registration is challenging for an R (wait while I do the latest math…):  18,710 D; 10,130 R; 9893 I.  With Bruce Ennis on board, I don’t think it will be as close as some project.  Hoffner, 55-45.

Senate District 17: Sen. Trey Paradee faces some name on the ballot.  For completists, Ed Ruyter.  Doesn’t appear to have a website.  Looks like he’s either a real estate agent and/or a logger.  A good combination as he can build log cabins, then sell them.

Senate District 18: Mush-mouthed auctioneer Dave Wilson  faces D Bill Devary in what promises to be a non-competitive race.  He doesn’t appear to have a webpage either.  Looks like he might have sued the Delaware Department of Education a few years ago.  That’s all I’ve got.  Wilson, 65-35.

State Rep. District 1:  Wouldn’t shock me to see a decent amount of Shane supporters cast their votes for R challenger Mark Gardner, who seems like a decent candidate.  He’ll likely outperform the registration figures by quite a bit, but the registration figures are too much to overcome.  Nnamdi, 65-35.

RD 4:  The House D’s could have made this district more competitive following the redrawing of the lines, but Pete clearly chose not to. While not overwhelmingly R, the I’s tend to vote like R’s here.  Keegan Worley is a good candidate and hopefully has a political future, but Jeff Hilovsky prevails, say 57-43.

RD 5:  Couldn’t find out much on R challenger Alexander Homich.  Not that it matters in this modified barbell-shaped district originally drawn to spec for Lonnie George’s daughter.  (It’s less of a barbell now, but remains a barbell nonetheless.)  Incumbent Kendra Johnson easily disposes of the challenger in this overwhelmingly-D district.  70-30.

RD 6: The primary was the de facto General for Deb Heffernan.  Her opponent, Michael Krawczuk, will not benefit from many Cotto supporters flocking to him.   His so-called bio is a non-bio bio:

Mike Krawczuk is a proud Delaware resident, husband, and father who has over 20 years of leadership experience in the financial and industrial sectors. He is the founder of two successful small businesses, and he understands how to work hard to achieve results.

Here’s more:

With more than 25 years of professional experience in service-oriented roles, Mike Krawczuk has learned a lot about building relationships, achieving goals, and reaching mutually beneficial outcomes. From securities trading and wealth management to manufacturing and corporate catering, Mike’s diverse professional experience has followed a common path: providing excellent service. As service is the fundamental component of government, Mike is confident he can extend this commitment to the public sector by better serving the residents of the 6th Representative District.

Ya know what that says to me?: Fucking guy can’t keep a job.  He’s not getting this one.  Heffernan, 70-30.

RD 7.  There are names on the ballot. Then there is Shane Stoneman.   Claims he’s been a bodyguard to the stars.  Which, to me says he follows Lee Murphy around.  He’s running against one of our best freshman legislators, Larry Lambert, whose district is even more solidly D since redistricting.  Lambert, 70-30.

RD 8.  The Rethugs think they struck gold here.  Their kind of candidate–a career cop. A Black career cop.  You’ve all seen him with that goofy state trooper hat on. (Just curious: What, exactly, is the purpose of that hat?  It’s goofy.)  Rae Moore is a first-term D, and perhaps more vulnerable than most.  However, registration is destiny here–10,164 D; 4864 R; and 5053 I.  Moore, 56-44

RD 9:  The ‘fools’ gold’ district.  Registration suggests it should be a D district. And it can be.  But not with Terrell Williams as the candidate.  Gotta give props to Kevin Hensley.  He’s made himself popular here.  Hensley, 58-42.

RD 10:  It’s getting to be about time for Sean Matthews to face a challenge from the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party. As long as it’s not Dennis E. Williams again.  However, Brent Burdge is yet another R sacrifical lamb. An RWNJ sacrificial lamb at that:

The current State Rep is not representing Brandywine Hundred anymore. We need someone who will serve the interests of our community rather than going along with the Democrat party bosses and the radical progressive leaders.

Not sure which Brandywine Hundred he’s referencing, but it’s not the one I live in.  Prediction:  He will run for School Board next. And lose.  After his 70-30 defeat at the hands of Matthews.

RD 12:  Holy Moley! Ben Gregg‘s home page is exactly the same as Brent Burdge’s homepage.  I guess an economy of scale is in order when Chris Kenny is paying for them:

I strongly oppose what is currently being forced upon us by the progressive theory of the current Democrat Party. I feel and think it is time for me to do my duty.

Since being the Membership Director of the Delaware Rifle and Pistol Club isn’t enough.  Looks like another 70-30 skunking, this one at the hands of Krista Griffith.

RD 13:  I suppose that a credible R challenger might have posed a threat to DeShanna Neal after her narrow primary win over Larry Mitchell. But not this Carlucci Coelho, who raised a pittance. He’s also another cipher, whose profile tells us next to nothing about him.  Neal, 60-40.

RD 14: Popgun Pete is headed back to Dover, with or without his manhood.  Assuming he wants to. If that caucus doesn’t demote this fucking guy, I’ll be absolutely shocked.  He has an opponent of sorts.  Carl Phelps. Military and paramedic background.  Not unqualified. He’s gone into debt to the tune of $11K on behalf of his campaign.  Which is what happens when you run against a bully determined to exact retribution on anyone who crosses him, especially contributors to his opponents.  I’ll go 70-30 with perhaps a few more D stealth votes against Scwartzkopf than in previous campaigns.

RD 15: Props to Michael Higgin for challenging one of Delaware’s Most Corrupt Public Officials.  But Val Longhurst‘s war chest is even larger than Speaker Pete’s.  To her credit, she’s spreading the spoils around, which is what you do when you want to be the next House Speaker.  Higgin is also in debt, which is what happens blahblahblah.  Nobody dares give to you.  Longhurst, 70-30.

RD 18:  You didn’t think that Sophie Phillips would trounce her opponent in a primary just to be taken out by an R in the General, did you?  Don’t worry, it’s not happening. If you can find out anything about Gloria Hope Payne, please share.  I couldn’t.  Phillips, 72-28.

RD 20:  The D’s had a good chance to make this race competitive.  But only Stell Parker Selby stepped forward.  You may remember her as Jack Markell’s R opponent in his run for State Treasurer.  Former R with some, um, odd views for a D.  She’ll lose, on merit, to Dallas Wingate.  Call it 58-42.  A missed opportunity, due largely to the moribund Suxco Democratic Party.  Get rid of the old obstructionists!

RD 21: The primo House race of the year.  I’ve literally never seen someone with Frank Burns’ background run for office.  He also comes right out and says what he stands for on his webpage.  He is running against that sleazy survivor, Mike Ramone.  Ramone has struggled to make his patented smears stick against the likeable Burns, and some of his votes, particularly on abortion, have come back to haunt him.  I know the grassroots team behind Burns.  I feel very optimistic about this, and I think Burns defeats Ramone. Call it 53-47.

RD 23: Mike Ramone’s daughter is poised to meet an even more grisly political fate at the hands of Paul Baumbach, who is one of Newark’s most popular elected officials. I agree with someone who suggested that the R’s put her up so that they could put up more signs with Ramone’s name on them.  We don’t need to rerun her photo in full MAGAt regalia, do we?  We do?  OK.  Baumbach, 70-30.

RD 24: Ed Osienski is a perfect fit for his district.  Minimum wage and pot legalization.  His opponent Joan Godwin appears to be running a campaign based on–nostalgia?:

I grew up as a proud Delawarean, and I remember our golden age with leaders like Pete DuPont, Bill Roth, and Mike Castle. But it’s a different story today, and Delaware is no longer in good hands like those. We are moving in the wrong direction. The great businesses and industries that once defined our communities and our way of life, like Chrysler and Avon, have left, and only empty buildings remain.

The people of the 24th don’t yearn for a return of the Greenville crowd and the Golden Age that never was.  Nor do they yearn for Joan Godwin either. Osienski, 68-32.

RD 25: You didn’t think that Cyndie Romer would trounce her opponent in a primary just to be taken out by an R in the General, did you? Don’t worry, it’s not happening. Lynn Mey doesn’t suck, and she runs marathons.  However, this was a sprint to Election Day.  Romer, 64-36.

RD 26:  Madinah Wilson-Anton will have no reason to apologize come November 8.  Nor will she.  Tim Conrad lost to Madinah by a 72-28 margin in 2020.  Look for a similar result this time.  His campaign is so hopeless that I don’t even know if that trailer park guy will pony up.  Let me check–nope, doesn’t look like it.  Banked a total of, wait for it, $199 on his eight day report. 

RD 27: Much to my surprise, Eric Morrison has become an absolute machine.  He’s running against two-time loser John Marino.  You know, the ex-NYC cop who retired on disability.  He’s Pistol Pete’s kind of candidate.  (Which reminds me, why hasn’t Marino gotten a golden parachute at Del-Tech like all the other undistinguished cops-turned-would-be-politicians)?  He’ll also be a three-time loser come November 8.  Morrison, 58-42.

RD 29: DINO Bill Bush faces only token opposition from Marc Wienner, who raised a decent amount of money, much of it from other R officeholders.  The only Marc Wienner in Delaware that I could find is a computer guy who hasn’t worked since 2011.  If anybody has anything more up to date, feel free to share.  Oh, look at this.  He’s taken pictures on both the House and Senate podiums.  Why, he’s a veritable Speaker Pete and BHL.  Ho-kay.  If Bush is to be defeated, it will have to be in a D primary.  Bush, 63-37.

RD 31: Sean Lynn, one of Delaware’s better legislators, faces Jason Stewart, whose web address is unreadable on the Kent County R page.  He’s a veteran, has his kids in virtually every picture, and he’s Black!  Didn’t raise much money.  Doesn’t seem to have a job. Don’t know what his fallback position is once he loses, though.  Which he will. Lynn, 65-35.

RD 32:  I’ve been remiss in mentioning a recurring theme in Delaware Rethug messaging this year: “Our parental rights are under attack.”  You know, from ‘the government and the unions who run schools.’ Thus saieth Cheryl Precourt and her coterie of ditto-heads.  She’s run before, usually on a virulent anti-abortion platform, which she is downplaying this time.  Gee, wonder why.  For Kerri Evelyn Harris, the primary was the General, and she will dispose of this MAGAt handily.  65-35.  Oh, BTW, one more Rethug talking point?:  They will introduce a Constitutional Amendment to prevent the defunding of police.  These peeps ain’t got nothin’.

RD 34: A couple of cycles back, I thought that Ade Kuforiji might be a serious candidate.  Then, I realized that he raised next to no money.  In his case, meaning he didn’t even try.  Same has held true this year.  Lyndon Yearick wins, 70-30.

RD 39: Susan Clifford challenges R Minority Leader Danny Short. She has gotten contributions from some pretty progressive organizations.  Problem is, progressivism isn’t popular in western Suxco. Or central Suxco, for that matter.  I’m glad she ran, but she’s the right candidate in the wrong district.  Short, 62-38.

NCC District 2:  Someone named Jamie Collins is allegedly challenging Dee Durham in this Brandywine Hundred Councilmanic District. I say ‘allegedly’ because there’s no proof this guy exists.  No pictures, no website, no nothing.  His campaign finance report, such as it is, was weeks late.  Oh, and his filing statement was replete with misspellings, including the name of the street on which he allegedly lives. Durham knocked off the smarmy Bob Weiner last time, and she’ll defeat Collins, 67-33, whether he exists or not.

I’m not touching the Kent and Suxco Counties local races.  Why? Don’t know. Don’t care.

Man, I don’t ever want to write a piece this long again!