DL Open Thread: Thursday, November 10, 2022
The so-called mainstream media will never learn. Once again, they focused on the coming (and illusory) Red Wave to the exclusion, or at least diminution, of covering the ongoing attacks on democracy, which was clearly the story of the election lead-up. No doubt they will do some post-election ‘soul-searching’, then return to doing exactly the same thing two years hence. BTW, starting to wonder whether polling is a lost art when so few people respond and/or are even reachable. Dana Milbank nails it:
So what happened? Political journalists were suckered by a wave of Republican junk polls in the closing weeks of the campaign. They were also swayed by some reputable polling organizations that, burned by past failures to capture MAGA voters, overweighted their polls to account for that in ways that simply didn’t make sense. And reporters fell for Republican feints and misdirection, as Republican operatives successfully created an artificial sense of momentum by talking about how they were spending money in reliably blue areas.
The news media took the faulty assumption that Republicans would enjoy a red wave and plugged in explanations for the imagined outcome. Democrats blew it because they spoke too much about abortion and democracy, and too little about the economy and crime. (In fact, crime and the economy figured prominently in many Democratic campaigns.)
Of course, they shouldn’t have been focusing on polls nearly as much.
How Rethugs Defeated Themselves. We have to have at least one post-election think piece on what happened. Actually, one will suffice:
But Scott’s hopes of a united GOP response were dashed as soon as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) stood to address the same room: Send 20 percent of the money from their leadership PACs, he told the senators, to the Senate Leadership Fund, an outside group controlled by his own loyalists, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Gotta love infighting like that.
From the outside, this year’s elections looked like a virtual Republican lock. Since Lyndon B. Johnson, new Democratic presidents have lost an average of 45 House and five Senate seats in the midterms. Republicans went to the polls Tuesday needing to gain just five House seats and a single Senate seat to take control, amid soaring inflation and broad dissatisfaction with the nation’s direction.
But behind the scenes, nothing came easy to Republicans this cycle, as their historic tail winds collided with the fractious reality of a political party in the midst of a generational molting. GOP leaders spent much of the last year fighting against each other or plotting against their own primary voters. They were hobbled by unprepared first-time candidates, fundraising shortfalls and Trump, whose self-concern required constant attention — right up to the eve of the election, when he forced party bosses to beg him once again to delay a presidential campaign announcement.
Admit it–you want to read this entire delicious post-mortem. It’s comprehensive.
Murdochs Abandon Trump-Go All In On DeSantis:
I’ll close with this observation from an elected official following the Democratic Party’s Tuesday celebration: LBR’s speech made it pretty apparent that she’s looking at running for something other than reelection for Congress in 2024. The possibility of her running for Governor hasn’t yet made it into the lamestream press:
With the midterms now over, all eyes in Delaware turn to the governor’s race, which will likely be the most competitive and highest-profile election in 2024. Carney is limited to two terms in office and cannot run again.
While no one has officially declared their candidacy, the Democratic primary could be crowded. There’s been longtime speculation among Delaware politicos that Lt. Gov. Bethany Hall-Long and New Castle County Executive Matt Meyer could be possible candidates.
In a recent University of Delaware poll, Hall-Long had an approval rating of 65%, the highest favorable opinion when compared with Carney (61%) and U.S. Sens. Tom Carper (61%) and Chris Coons (55%).
We’re not lamestream.
What do you want to talk about?
A) how could BHL have a higher approval rating than carney? she literally does nothing in a position that shouldnt even be a position. oh yea, DE loves pols that actually do nothing.
B) If the repubes had just run on old time conservative positions (pushed on inflation, gas, economy, markets, etc) i dont know if any dems would have won. they lost because they are absolutely nuts. Regan era repubs would have won 400 house seats.
I think someone once said this about Ed Muskie, and it applies to BHL:
Her ‘support is a mile wide and an inch deep’.
People still love voting against Trump and hate the party he has created, but how many more election cycles can Democrats depend on the common sense and decency of Dem voters to outweigh the wrongheadedness of party “leaders” and DC consultants?
The Republican echo chamber (and that includes the MSM) assumes everyone hates the Democratic president as much as they do, and then is shocked when he is re-elected (Clinton, Obama).
The Republican echo chamber as of 2022 includes CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN, MSNBC and Fox.
^word
A) how could BHL have a higher approval rating than carney?
Because she literally does nothing in a position that shouldnt even be a position. As a result se gets to go around smiling and being friends with everyone.
That said, if LBR jumps in the Governorship is hers for the taking. None of the rest stand a chance against her in a primary.
Governor is a more appealing job than having to constantly raise money and stand for reelection every two years. And then after eight years she could be president of DelState or DelTech or something.
(Does the DE gov have any political fundraising responsibilities? I don’t know.)
On the other hand, the next DE gov will have to preside over the the loss of escheat (maybe) and the rollout of property reassessment* and will have to cut budgets, raise taxes , or both. Which will be unpopular one way or another.
And LBR in particular will be pressured to make good on equity in public education, so more funding.
So DE gov might not be the glide path it was for Markell and Carney.
* Property tax is a county issue but it bears on public education, and the uninformed (which is most DE voters) will take it out on all Dem incumbents.
The last few times I left a comment that included the three letter abbreviation for our Congresswoman, it got moderated.
LBR? Really?
Yes. I just shrugged and moved on, but I think those initials were the trigger. See if there is a comment from me in moderation about fifteen minutes ago.
LBR
well that worked
I’m sorry, but does Blunt have a personality? Positions on any issue? She’s an empty suit, just like her father.
She also has no name recognition. Carney made the jump from Congress after also having served as Lt. Gov. Blunt has no similar springboard.
She only needs name recognition amount Democratic Primary voters and she certainly has that.
Among primary voters they all have name recognition.
She has done nothing. BHL at least has the excuse that it’s a nothing job.
She has far more personality than Carney. Very likeable.
The more salient question is: Does she stand for anything?
She’s not running against Carney, she’s running against BHL and Meyer. And with another woman in the race she doesn’t even have the advantage she had against Townsend.
Thinking about that New York Post cover. Without the Murdochs, Trump is toast. And hopefully this all means that the AG has been cleared to indict.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/media/fox-news-desantis-celebration
New York
CNN Business
—
Rupert Murdoch, the media mogul who controls some of the most powerful organs in conservative media, appeared to make clear Wednesday that he would prefer to cast aside former President Donald Trump in favor of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as the leader of the Republican party.
The New York Post, a tabloid Murdoch controls, hailed DeSantis’ election night victory on its front page Wednesday morning.
“DeFUTURE,” the headlined on the Post blared, alongside a photo of DeSantis and his family celebrating their major win in the Sunshine State
On Fox News, the dominant television voice Murdoch controls, significant attention was given on Wednesday to DeSantis’ victory.
Fox boss Lachlan Murdoch privately levels harsh criticism against Trump, sources say
“I think Governor DeSantis is the single biggest winner of the night,” former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said on “Fox & Friends,” adding that he will “almost certainly become the rallying point for everybody in the Republican Party who wants to move beyond President Trump.”