What are Trump’s real chances of winning?
What does “winng” even mean for Trump? We know it doesn’t mean being found not guilty in court because he isn’t really mounting a conventional legal defense. Winning, at this point, means getting close enough in the Electoral College to push this into some omnibus Supreme Court case that finds that Trump is indeed King.
What are the real chances of that happening? It feels like a long shot. This is Josh Marshall’s report from Obviousville.
There’s a new poll out from Politico Magazine/Ipsos the results of which are straight out of Obviousville. But surprisingly few people ever go to Obviousville. So those results are worth discussing. The central finding is that the parade of criminal charges against Donald Trump are not in fact good news, politically or individually, for Donald Trump. More specifically, majorities (albeit bare ones) of Americans want his trials to be held before the election (61%), believe he’s guilty (51%) and believe he should go to prison if convicted (50%). …
For all this, what struck me most in the poll is below the top lines. These 50% or 51% results suggest the same old split down the middle polarization we’re accustomed to. But that’s not quite it. 51% believe Trump is guilty. 26% believe he’s not. That’s pretty lopsided. 22% say they don’t know. 50% say Trump should go to prison if he’s convicted. 18% say he shouldn’t be penalized. The rest are split between probation and some financial penalty. …
If you step back and ask how many respondents buy what we might call the Republican public line – that Trump’s innocent and the prosecutions are an abuse of power – only a bit over 20% of the population seem to buy that.
Related:
“Dem to win National Popular Vote” now trading over 80% for the first time.
Suddenly thrown back into the early seventies, as in Trump will have his cult and precious little more. “Biden is senile” has more then a little cred at this point, but Trump is insane and senile so much more.
You don’t believe a person could remain mentally sharp into their 80s? I know quite a few.
Winning for trump means the same as winning for Joel osteen or pat Roberts or billy graham or Jimmy swaggart.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCnxz3ClX70
To your point, Trumpers praying to Trump for salvation.
Jesus, Shmeesus
51% pretty scary. National Popular Vote means nothing.