New polling shows Eugene Young’s run for Congress is a big waste of political capital as Sarah McBride opens a more than twenty point lead. I hate being right about this stuff all the time.
Sarah McBride Holds Commanding Lead in Historic Run for Delaware At-Large Congressional Seat
WASHINGTON—Today, a new poll by Change Research of Delaware’s At-Large Congressional race shows State Sen. Sarah McBride with a commanding lead, nearly doubling the support of her closest opponent. McBride made history in 2020 as the first openly transgender state senator in the country—and she is poised to once again make history as the first openly transgender member of Congress.
In this poll, conducted September 7-12, 2023 of likely Democratic primary voters, State Sen. McBride holds a 44% to 23% lead over Eugene Young, with 13% for Colleen Davis, and 20% undecided. McBride also holds a dominant lead among likely women voters, who are expected to comprise over 60% of the primary electorate, as well as strong leads in most polled age groups. The poll was commissioned by the Human Rights Campaign Equality Votes PAC.
Other insights from this poll show a highly motivated electorate, with 65% of respondents describing themselves as “extremely motivated” to participate in the 2024 primary elections. Among those polled, health care and gun violence prevention rank as the top two policy priorities, with 42% and 40% of voters, respectively. Other highly ranked concerns include protecting reproductive rights, fighting racism and discrimination, and climate change.
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McBride is a better politician than Young, and I don’t mean that in a good way.
Yeah and she is a rare Delawareway candidate that can attract “outsider” voters. That’s a huge problem for Young. I’m still shocked that Drew S and team Young picked this race.
Thanks for firing me up, Jason. Happy to be working on Team Eugene’s Campaign.
It is pretty shocking to see this post claiming that the Congressional race in 2024 is already decided. Talk about the worst example of the Delaware Way. A small cadre of party insiders decides that somehow Sarah McBride is next in line – why it’s her turn at 32 is hard to understand – and everyone else is supposed to step aside. How dare Eugene run against the party’s latest anointed one!? He needs to wait his turn! Does even get a turn?
And questioning why Drew and team are supporting Eugene… are you serious? Drew and Eugene co-founded Network Delaware, which played a key role in transforming politics in the First State, after they almost won the mayoral race. They are allies, and friends. And Eugene has support that is deep and wide. Why should he yield to Sarah?
And as far as that poll goes, it’s really too early for it to mean much. Remember how DeSantis was up and coming? It’s a real shame to see this blog stop offering a progressive view of politics and begin being a mouthpiece for the DP establishment and the fundamentally anti-democratic Delaware Way.
Spare me the vapors. This is simple electoral X’s and O’s and Drew knows as well as anybody that timing and race selection are important factors.
On this one they whiffed. It is that simple.
A lot can happen in a year. I cannot believe you are putting so much faith is a poll, especially given how unreliable polls have been in the past few years.
Maybe I’m not putting too much faith in the poll but I’m still a little pissed about Young squandering this cycle (and damaging himself going forward having notched 2 losses)? That could be it. I’m not doing a ton of self examination these days.
I think Eugene is going to win. We will see. But it is not political suicide to lose twice either.
Uh…please show me someone who’s lost twice without ever winning and then gone on to a robust career.
The reason I’m leaning Eugene is that a second loss will end his electoral career, but a first loss won’t end Sarah’s.
That said, I wouldn’t bet any money on him, at any odds.
So we’d deny the entire transgender community a single and only chance at a voice in Congress at a time when so much of the anti-trans hate is rooted in people either not knowing a trans person or even thinking that transgender people are monsters… just because Sarah can afford a political loss?
Also I like Eugene, but can we move past the notion that his candidacy isn’t also Delaware Way. He worked in the House, worked for Booker, is running from a position he was nominated for by Carney, and has likes of Cade and DeMatteis helping him out. Also, I know this blog was outraged about Sarah’s interview in Jewish Insider, but Eugene’s interview lays out the exact same position as hers. Eugene is a politician, too.
I’m not denying anyone anything. I’m expressing a calculated position.
Alby – Ronald Reagan ran twice before winning the Presidency. So did Joe Biden.
Emma,
you’re acting like Biden only ran for potus and had no other record.
He was a million term senator who never LOST a state election, then a double VP. His first 2 presidential runs always ended before he had a chance to lose a primary. That hardly counts.
A year out from the primary means polling numbers are not to be relied upon. That “Delaware Way” label is a kiss of death following Carney.
Please list the people who have won primary elections by running against the Delaware Way.
It doesn’t matter if I can or can’t name them. The Delaware Way is anti-democratic and needs to go…Delaware Way = shitty Democrat
Not the issue. You claimed “the Delaware Way is the kiss of death.” I asked you to name the dead.
“name the dead”
Is Mike Castle still alive?
I swear, I think Castle’s primary loss was mourned more by Delaware Way Democrats than by Republicans.
Alby – Sen. Pinkney ran against Sen. McBride. Sen. Townsend also took out the pro tem. Rep. U Neal took out Larry Mitchell.
But none of them did so by saying “the Delaware Way sucks.” They ran against lackluster incumbents. Not the situation here.
No one runs on “the DE Way sucks.” But some candidates run against the DE Way in that they run against establishment installed candidates or incumbents.
And how is either one going to do that here?
It seems like I have to say this every primary season. My sole concern is electing more and better Democrats. We need to replace Republicans and shitty democrats everywhere and every election.
But good luck trying to make McBride the DelawareWay candidate in this race. I mean it will work with political weirdos like some DL readers but that’s a vanishingly small number of primary voters.
I guess I must be one of those DL weirdos…odd thing to say about the people who read and place value in your work…
I include myself as one of the weirdos. Not intended as an insult. Just a fact that we track this shit a lot more closely than normal civilians
is weird even a pejorative?
I dont actually buy this casting of McBride as a “centrist”. is she left-of-bernie? maybe not in her record as a senator, but shes has gotten a lot done, especially for someone so early in their career. She is to the left of our entire congressional delegation. The most vulnerable rights to Magat takeover are women and lgbtq+ people. If there is even a hint of a glimmer of a doubt about her stance there and how she would act in congress about it, you’re insane.
Is a fire-breathing pugilistic leftist ever really an effective legislator anyway?
personally, I wish Young would have gone for LtGov or Gov. I dont even have any ill feelings toward BHL, but im so very sick of the “your turn” method of politics in this state.
How is she not the Delaware Way candidate when she is being installed by the establishment?
Emma, you and I see that. But most primary voters will see an outsider candidate (by virtue of her gender identity) who wants to courageously go into a Congress that wants her gender to be illegal.
OK, but Eugene is also an outsider candidate, as a Black man, and he wants to courageously go into Congress in a white supremacist society. I think that many primary voters are primarily concerned about their lives, their families, and their communities, than they are about any particular politician’s career goals.
That poll means something, but not much. It’s a name recognition poll at this point in time.
If Sarah goes into ‘protect the lead’ mode, she will likely lose. Don’t think she will.
But Drew knows his shit, and so does Eugene. I suspect they’ll have the stronger grassroots team. Yes, I think Sarah is the favorite, but it’s too early to focus on horse race polls.
Barry says, “So we’d deny the entire transgender community a single and only chance at a voice in Congress at a time when so much of the anti-trans hate is rooted in people either not knowing a trans person or even thinking that transgender people are monsters… just because Sarah can afford a political loss?”
Sarah should not be running to represent the entire transgender community. She should be running to represent the people of DE. And her lone voice in Congress will not do much to advance trans issues. And needless, Eugene also supports LGBTQ+ issues.
Of course she’s running to represent Delaware and has been overly clear about that focus, but she’s also the only realistic chance the trans community has at some kind of representation in Congress. To Barry’s point, a lot of anti-trans animus is rooted in a caricature of trans people. That caricature can be pretty effectively combatted with trans person serving in Congress. Do you have a problem with LBR pointing out that there are literally no Black women in the US Senate while she runs to represent Delaware in the Senate?
I have no problem with LBR pointing out the lack of Black women in the Senate, and I have no problem with electing a trans woman to Congress, although I think you overstate the impact that would have on society.
That said, I support Euguene because he is a transformational candidate with a long track record of success, and his position on certain issues is more in line with my own. In the end the primary voters will decide which candidate will run in the general.
The subtext here is “ Sen. McBride is a respectable trans person whose election will change hearts and minds about trans issues.”
I don’t think at this point her presence in any elected office is going to move the needle. It will be a distraction and her capitulation to the Stakeholders leads me to believe she will be less effective than Young. Still better than LBR but she should have sat out this cycle and built up more grass roots energy to knock out coons, without having to sell her soul to the establishment
Tale as old as time. White man takes something from a black man.
No white man involved, no incumbent involved. Try again.
Institutional racism exists in our party. You may be part of that problem.
How so? By pointing out that you’re wrong?
White man pretending to be a lady, not much different than a businessman giving his wife an executive title to quality a a Women owned business.
You can show yourself the door, bigot.
Pump the brakes…a couple of flags…
If you take a peak inside the poll, you’ll see that it is a Change Research ONLINE poll. Besides oversampling/undersampling in key demographics, voters who participate in online surveys tend to overrepresent the most engaged and most educated portions of the electorate. That’s why you are seeing Sarah come out on top (not to mention the poll is incredibly skewed for Sarah knowing it was a HRC funded poll – her former employer). On top of that, it’s a relatively small sample size.
We are a year out, and a lot can change. The electorate today is not necessarily the electorate voting a year from now.
“online surveys tend to overrepresent the most engaged and most educated portions of the electorate”
So do primaries.
Love the screen name, BTW.
The poll isn’t the point. The story is the McBride campaign getting out in front of Young and leveraging what is likely a BS poll into a memorable media story, now amplified on social media and on McBride’s presumably extensive mailing lists. That’s why I say McBride is a better political operative than Young, for better or worse.
Note that the poll is funded by an LGBTQ advocacy PAC which has already endorsed McBride.
It’s as if a black advocacy PAC had comissioned a favorable poll and Young sent out a press release trumpeting the results. But he didn’t, because his campaign isn’t taking advantage of identity politics.
Young’s campaign highlights class rather than identity, so that is why the establishment supports his opponent.
I don’t think he has to highlight his identity. I think the Black community will come out for Eugene. I don’t know what percentage of primary voting Dems is Black, but it cannot be insignificant.
Marie Pinckney, in a majority-Black district, beat old white guy David McBride – who didn’t even live in his district anymore – with 52.4% of the vote.
Make of that what you will.
I’m on McBride’s email list. She hasn’t sent out a thing about this poll. Nor has she shared it on her Facebook page.
How is this the story again?
It’s only a story because some pro-Sarah folks to publicize the poll and demoralize Euguene folks.
And the Delaware Stonewall PAC posted it. Trying to be revelant again, I guess.
Isn’t that called … politics?
Yes, I believe it is.
I take Puck to be suggesting that it’s easier for the establishment to offer a few bones to the identity folks than to actually do something about class disparities (if that means genuine economic reform). I think I agree with that. Sorry, Puck, if I misinterpreted.
I don’t know what Puck was suggesting either but your conclusion that ‘it’s easier for the establishment to offer a few bones to the identity folks than to actually do something about class disparities” is spot on correct. Not just easier but deliberate. I spent sixteen years surrounded by that attitude and can honestly say that the Delaware Way and the establishment is consumed with an attitude of (political) self preservation and screw class disparities. Nothing is more frustrating than to be surrounded by self-serving politicians who falsely claim to be public servants.
Former State Representative John Kowalko
I didn’t realize I was so inscrutable. My point was that someone who is campaigning explicitly on more rights and benefits for the poor and working class is going to get a hard pass from the establishment, irrespective of identity.
This is a poll of 531 people. This would be scientific if we expect the turnout of this election to be about 5300 ppl. So not only is this a cheap unscientific poll, but its way too early. And personally, a poll where 74% of the respondents have at least some college education sounds taylor made to lean more Sarah. I’m calling bullshit.
Scientific polls are not 10% of an electorate. Look at most polls and 500 is the typical universe of respondents. And 74% of state Democratic primary voters having gone on to more than high school (but most not getting a bachelors or advanced degree) is very, very likely.
Most recent Delaware Population Consortium numbers, for state residents age 25 and up, show that 60 percent have more than a high school education and a little over 30 percent have a bachelor’s degree or higher.
From that data, looking at likely primary voters and factoring in that under-25 likely voters are more likely to have some college, I’d say that the 74 percent figure is slightly high but still plausible.
Democratic state-level primary voters skew more educated than the overall population, so if 60% of population overall has more than a HS degree, then 74% sounds just about right.
Have a link to that primary voter demographic info?
But this isn’t a poll of primary voting democrats. This poll includes everybody.
What does this phrase mean to you?
“likely Democratic primary voters”
That’s not true. It’s not a poll of everyone. It’s a poll of “likely Democratic primary voters.” With polls, that means they pull a random sample of phone numbers of Democrats on the voter rolls who have a history of voting in state primary/ies and who indicate they intend on voting in this one too. This is how all primary polls are done.
Puck – I thought you were clear. I elaborated a little on it and was hoping it didn’t distort what you said.
Polls are media inspired and inciting containers of bullshit. Internet polls are uselessly inaccurate (vote for your all-star choice online). If you pay any attention to polls than you have little capacity for independent thought. If you use polls to drive your opinion than you are sadly and irreparably ill-informed and should consider staying home on election day.
EY is not a fire-breathing pugilistic leftist.
Like you, I am sick of the “your turn” way, where the Party decides who shall be installed, which is one reason I support EY.
Im not saying you’re saying this… but.. i dont think SM in anyway is a Delaware Way “Your turn” pick.
I think the power dynamic with SM and the state party HEAVILY favors her. She’s a charismatic young pol with a higher national profile than our weasel-shit governor and arguably our 2 hapless US Senator. The stuffy Carper/Coons acolytes need her WAY more than she needs them and everyone knows it. I think she pulls the state perty to left left while making *them think it’s their idea.
Well said.
Actually emma,
you almost explicitly said shes the Delaware way “your turn pick” so i take back the part where i said you weren’t saying that. that’s a dumb take. especially point out her young age… which is about the same as EY. He should have run for governor…. especially since she announced first. This was a misstep on his part.
Have you seen how many Party operatives and elected officials have endorsed her? They are circling the wagons to get her elected. And she has close ties to people at the very top echelons of the DP. To me that illustrates she is the chosen one, i.e. they’ve decided it’s her turn.
She announces first so she should have it? That’s absurd, and it doesn’t work that way.
Thats an adorable twist on what I said. honestly, you kind of sound like a paranoid Bernie Bro. My point was that she got a massive head start on this thing called “time” (which isnt a Clintonian dirty trick) by getting into the race first by several weeks.
EY is welcome to make the case that he’s the best option like anyone else.
She’s been endorsed by her work colleagues because she has an important thing Mr. Young Doesnt…. an established record of electoral wins. (though i still think he could win a statewide race, ideally Gov)
Im actually at a loss for what you find so objectionable about her. By your own admission Young isnt a fire-breathing leftist. I dont see much daylight between them politically (this is why i wish they could each win a significant statewide race)
LIKE EY and I’m not about to start dragging him through the mud to boost my preferred candidate, unlike SOME.
But tell me, other than your chosen narrative that Sarah McBride is an “establishment pick” (laughable) , what is your issue?
With due respect to all, I wish either one had challenged LBR for the senate seat, because either one would be better. Instead we’ll get another go-along get-along person in that seat for decades to come.
How do you think that would have turned out?
How do you think that would have turned out?
You’re OK with challenging the party-backed McBride but not the party-backed LBR? Why?
I am OK with either, but I think the chances of beating a state legislator with less than 2 years experience are better than beating an incumbent congressperson. Don’t you? Which race would you choose, if you were running?
I can’t answer that question because there are no circumstances on Earth that would entice me to take a political office even if I didn’t have to run for it.
So basically you want Young in Congress no matter what. So noted.
And from the other perspective, it is easier to win an open seat with no sitting congressperson running. It would be idiotic to choose to run against LBR for Senate instead of an open seat for Congress. Do you disagree?
I understand why everyone is doing what they’re doing. That doesn’t mean I like it.
Honestly, he probably would not beat LBR. Incumbency and party support are a hellovadrug.
The weaksauce candidates for Governor however…. ( i mean, he’d take Lt Gov no problem, but I dont want to tell someone to “wait their turn”)… he’d crush that race… and, Id be enthusiastically supporting him.
Perhaps not, but LBR is not the incumbent senator. It’s actually an open seat.
She has the resources of incumbency, given she is a sitting Congresswoman, even though the Senate seat is open.
What resources are you talking about? Sarah has more national resources than LBR. She could have challenged for the Senate seat and would have had just as much in the bank as LBR will have.
Or do you think there are other resources to incumbency?
SM would never challenge LBR. She is too much of an establishment figure.
Now you’re just revealing bias.